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briggsy6
18 September 2015 20:44:44

I wonder how many of us alive now will ever get to experience a 1947 or 1963 type winter, unless god help us, the Gulf Stream shuts down.


Location: Uxbridge
Zubzero
18 September 2015 22:26:52

No ice on windows and massive icicles in gutters as we have better heating in homes now I think?


Most view past Winter cold spells with rose tinted glasses. Apart from the last 2 Winters, have been some very good cold spell's and a few 20cm falls of snow imby. That's about as good as it get's for this location.


Unless you live on top of a hill, knee deep snow and giant icicles are very rare for most location's the UK

JACKO4EVER
18 September 2015 22:33:25
Modern winters are tripe compared to what I've saw in the 70's and 80's. Honestly, easterly winds brought snow showers that had the ability to put 3 inches down in 30 minutes. Now easterlies bring a dusting. Not that I like cold weather- my bones just can't take it anymore, but it's true- even 2010 was crap compared to what used to be. As for 20cm falls- we haven't seen snow on that scale for decades
Gusty
19 September 2015 06:24:41

Locally there were some decent snowfalls in that period between 2009 and 2013 but I would have to agree with Darren and say that none of us have had a 'true easterly'.


The last true easterly was early in January 1997..a long time ago now !


A 'true' easterly and what it is capable of would shock the younger generation. By shock I mean daytime temperatures of -5c or lower in a howling easterly, sea freezing and icicles as previously mentioned...Ground hard as iron, water like a stone.


It will happen again. 


 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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schmee
19 September 2015 07:54:43
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.html  I'm struggling with this chart. Neither here nore there.


Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
doctormog
19 September 2015 08:01:34


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.html  I'm struggling with this chart. Neither here nore there.


Originally Posted by: schmee 


Couldn't ask for a much nicer chart in September for many people. Warm-feeling and settled in dduring the day and cool with ground frost potential at night. Decent for early autumn.


As for icicles from gutters? I wouldn't have though that modern insulation would make a massive difference as decreased heat radiation from the building would in a way compensate for increased roof snow melt? We have had some massive icicles here a few times in the last ten years.


bradders
19 September 2015 08:37:23

I don`t remember the 1947 winter as I was only a five year old but I do remember walking up Buxton Road in Macclesfield to watch motorists probing huge showdrifts with garden canes searching for their cars abandoned during a blizzard.


Not sure when that was, but probably the mid 1950s.


In 1963 I was working on a partially completed block of flats, no windows just holes in the brickwork, and the block faced East into the biting wind. I`ve never been so cold in my life and thermometers on site usually registered a high each day of 2 or 3 degrees below freezing.


We had hardly any snow though because we were protected by the Pennines, but the wind chill made it almost impossible to do much work.



Eric. Cheadle Hulme, Stockport.
nsrobins
19 September 2015 10:33:38

From my perspective a true 'easterly' spell is not necessarily all about snow. It's sub zero maxima, powder and drifting snow when it falls, snow falling even between shower clouds, icicles growing over several days, ice on ponds and the sea shore and if you're really lucky, the fabled Channel low blizzard.


Here in S Hampshire you have to go back to 97 or better still 91 to see that. 


Anyone under 20 wouldn't know what hit them should we get a true Easterly blast again.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
GIBBY
19 September 2015 10:56:19

Thought I was on the wrong thread. Over a page and not a model related post. Wouldn't get away with that on the other channel.


Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset



Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
Solar Cycles
19 September 2015 11:00:31


Thought I was on the wrong thread. Over a page and not a model related post. Wouldn't get away with that on the other channel.


Originally Posted by: GIBBY 

I thought I was reading the Autumn/Winter thread until this post.😁

Retron
19 September 2015 17:50:44
Not much change this evening, with GFS continuing to show easterlies dominating longer-term; this has really been a consistent theme of late!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif 
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.gif 
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

ECM continues to show northern blocking post-240 as well (or at least this morning's control run did!)

For winter fans, one bit of consolation is that if this pattern were to occur in winter it wouldn't be a cold, snowy easterly of yore - the Scandinavian High is forecast to form on the wrong side of the jet for that.

Leysdown, north Kent
picturesareme
19 September 2015 18:33:57

Not much change this evening, with GFS continuing to show easterlies dominating longer-term; this has really been a consistent theme of late!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

ECM continues to show northern blocking post-240 as well (or at least this morning's control run did!)

For winter fans, one bit of consolation is that if this pattern were to occur in winter it wouldn't be a cold, snowy easterly of yore - the Scandinavian High is forecast to form on the wrong side of the jet for that.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Good signs none the less, winter 08-09 was a largely cold, dry and frosty one from October onwards. It also ended with a very snowy Feb for some.

JACKO4EVER
19 September 2015 18:43:44
All this talk of winter makes me laugh- it just about touched 20C here today with spells of glorious sunshine.
Back on topic....
Again, models pointing to some useable weather at times for next week for some parts of UK- given we are only a couple of weeks away from October I will take that!
picturesareme
19 September 2015 19:12:06

All this talk of winter makes me laugh- it just about touched 20C here today with spells of glorious sunshine.
Back on topic....
Again, models pointing to some useable weather at times for next week for some parts of UK- given we are only a couple of weeks away from October I will take that!

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


the same here just over 20C


but it was high pressure over the lowlands & Scandinavia during the winter of 08-09 that was very stubbern to move. 


Frost was recorded every night but one at Thorney from late November until early February!!! Pretty amazing even for a rural spot. 


 

Ally Pally Snowman
20 September 2015 07:09:26
Nick Gilly
20 September 2015 07:39:15
^I've seen very similar charts being thrown up by the GFS for around the 29th/30th. IF those charts came off I could see a repeat of 2011 again.

A pity it's 9 or 10 days away. If only it were July...
Retron
20 September 2015 08:36:42


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html Scorchio!!!


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


That translates directly to 17C at the surface at Reading. I'd suspect it'll be undercooking that a bit, but do remember that we're at the time of year now where high pressure doesn't automatically mean scorching highs!



Leysdown, north Kent
sizzle
20 September 2015 08:47:22

looking at the models its seem that we are going to have some very warm dry settled weather, is this the calm before the storm as alot of forecasters are suggesting that november is going to be very wet and stormy with gales with deep low depressions will filter in from the atlantic, bringing some serve wetaher to the UK,  i know we are 6 weeks away from november and could change but there is oviously some sort of inclination there of this happening,

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
20 September 2015 08:49:39

High pressure near us this time of year can lead to early cold pools further east, which help establish the Russian winter.


Gavin P
20 September 2015 09:21:38


High pressure near us this time of year can lead to early cold pools further east, which help establish the Russian winter.


Originally Posted by: four 


Indeed. As I always say, Keep an eye on the back of the high!


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
GIBBY
20 September 2015 09:55:55

Ever since I so called upgraded to Windows 10 I have had all sorts of problems copying and pasting links across to here from websites hence I can only provide a link to my report for the time being while I ascertain what is going on.


http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm


Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset



Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
sizzle
20 September 2015 12:22:01


Ever since I so called upgraded to Windows 10 I have had all sorts of problems copying and pasting links across to here from websites hence I can only provide a link to my report for the time being while I ascertain what is going on.


http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm


Originally Posted by: GIBBY 

thanks for the link gibby, in fact its even better as i can view your website as well. from what i read else where its going to be settled to at least mid october and from then on slowly going down hill. so i for one am going to make the most of this weather and at the right temps im comfortable with too,

Chunky Pea
20 September 2015 15:45:46


looking at the models its seem that we are going to have some very warm dry settled weather, is this the calm before the storm as alot of forecasters are suggesting that november is going to be very wet and stormy with gales with deep low depressions will filter in from the atlantic, bringing some serve wetaher to the UK,  i know we are 6 weeks away from november and could change but there is oviously some sort of inclination there of this happening,


Originally Posted by: sizzle 


 


Hard to say but that would not be too much of an unusual occurrence in late Autumn anyway. I do recall though that the tempests of Winter 2013-2014 were preceded by an unusually long stretch of anti-cyclonic weather which lasted for weeks.


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
briggsy6
20 September 2015 20:10:17

Please God I don't think I'd could stand another winter like that again.


Location: Uxbridge
idj20
21 September 2015 07:56:33


Please God I don't think I'd could stand another winter like that again.


Originally Posted by: briggsy6 



I'm with you on that one, that was a brutal winter in terms of rain and wind.

The ECM has gone a long way with soothing our furrowed foreheads. If the latter half of this 00z run does come off with high pressure dominating the UK, then may it eat into the rest of Autumn as much as it can. Even GFS has come up with a similar output - albeit a watered down version (and is likely to be the one that verifies). GEM, of course does the compact low over the UK thing at the end of their 240 hrs run, like it seems to like doing.

Whoops, I've become a mini version of Gibby for a moment there.


Folkestone Harbour. 

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