THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will move East across the UK today followed by a Westerly flow veering NW tomorrow behind a showery trough moving SE tonight.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled after this week with sunny spells and mist and fog by night.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow troughing back down over the UK over the next day or so where it continues to lie through the first few days of this week. the trend is then for the flow to move to a position NW of the UK with the worst of the Low pressure based weather likely to be. The flow becomes very variable and unclear in location late in the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure in control over the working days of this week as one centre drifts SE down the North Sea over the first few days of the week and then another crosses East to the North of Scotland soon after midweek with rain and showers for all of the UK at times. By next weekend High pressure is shown to build across the UK from the SW and then maintains a strong ridge across the UK for much of the time thereafter with fine  weather but with some mist and fog patches night and morning. The weather is then shown to turn more changeable again later as the High recedes away to the East and Atlantic fronts make inroads across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is very similar to the operational through much of the period though the methodology of returning unsettled weather across the UK in Week 2 is somewhat different in detail but not on theme as rather more changeable weather develops later but still with plenty of dry and bright weather around too.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning still show a lot of variation between members on the conditions likely to lie across the UK in 14 days time with the confusion remaining on how and what influence High pressure from the Azores affects the UK at that time with a slight bias towards drier conditions towards the South and East while more unsettled conditions are more likely towards the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure building across the UK next weekend with a centre moving NE out into the North Sea by next Sunday with a continental airflow over the South and light winds elsewhere. There should be plenty of dry and fine weather with overnight mist and fog once the working week's unsettled weather dissolves away by the weekend..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a changeable week with rain at times as Low pressure and troughs continue to move East across the UK from the West right up to next weekend. The improvements forecast for then are just coming into view on the 120hr chart as pressure is shown to be building from the SW.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning is somewhat less favourable as the rise in pressure at the weekend is restricted more towards the South and East of Britain where a dry spell is likely whereas the North and NW stay breezy under SW winds and rain at times as troughs brush by. This more unsettled and eventually windy cyclonic weather is then shown to advance to all of the UK through the course of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too is also reluctant to bring anything more than a ridge across the UK next weekend with a dry and bright period for a time before Atlantic Low pressure and troughs return East across all areas again soon after the start of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning is rock solid in delivering better weather across the UK from next weekend as it continues to show rising pressure from Friday culminating in a belt of High pressure stretching across the UK next week with fine and pleasantly warm weather by day once the mist and overnight fog which could be quite extensive at times slowly clears each day.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night too shows High pressure stretched across the UK with almost universal support for fine and dry early Autumn weather with fine warm days and cool misty nights.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models (with the exception of GEM and NAVGEM show a lengthy period of fine and settled weather across the UK from next weekend.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ties with UKMO at 99.4 pts each with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM again ties with UKMO at 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads at 86.5 pts over UKMO at 86.3 pts then GFS at 84.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.2 pts over GFS's 51.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.8 pts to 33.5 pts from GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The models continue to point towards a better period of weather which may last longer than a few days starting towards this coming weekend. In the meantime we have another 3-4 days when Low pressure to the North and NE affects the UK with showers or rain at times and cool West or NW winds. By Friday pressure then rises steadily and strongly from the SW and by the end of the weekend perhaps with the exception of the far North and NW all places should have become dry and fine. The High then settled across the UK as well as much of NW Europe next week which indicates that this spell could last a fair while characterized by some quite warm and sunny days or afternoons once the inevitable Autumn mist and fog patches have cleared which could become quite problematic for travel at times. It should be noted that all this is not quite set in stone yet as GEM and NAVGEM are less supportive at this stage but all the main players both sides of the Atlantic do give us a week of decent weather before there are any signs of a push from the Atlantic. So in a nutshell the weather will improve from the weekend for all with plenty of dry and quiet weather and while it should become warm by day this will be all dependant on how quickly morning mist and fogs evaporate each day on what will probably be chilly nights.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2281.gif 

The accolade for the worst chart of the day goes to GEM at 228hrs this morning as it forgets about High pressure almost as soon as it arrives with a deep Low running close to Southern England and delivering wet and windy weather to these areas as a result.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

For the best chart I have gone for the Day 10 chart from ECM which shows a large belt of High pressure across the UK at that time with centres to the East and West ensuring the door is closed on Atlantic fronts and depressions to affect the UK anytime soon from that time.

Next update from 09:00 Tuesday Sep 22nd 2015

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

As usual since early July the warmer run at day 6 or so are always there, as now I don't look at it anymore due to inaccurate modelling runs this recent summer.  I remember last week it show the same thing for today which should had been warm to mid 20's but alas it cold and wet yesterday.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY SEP 22ND 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A showery trough of Low pressure will clear SE England this morning followed by a cool NW then West flow with a weak ridge crossing East over the UK followed by another front tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled after this week with sunny spells and mist and fog by night. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow currently cyclonic across the UK before it migrates to the NW later this week and over the weekend. At the same time it dips well South over the Atlantic and returns North to the west of the UK early next week before reverting to a more cyclonic, light and broken pattern late in the period around the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to run with the theme of High pressure developing across the UK from the weekend although on this run it all too quickly gets to the east and NE of the UK allowing pressure to fall over the Atlantic which in turn pushes troughs close to Western Britain before midweek next week which then moves slowly East across the UK. Pressure then builds strongly to the North of the UK in the second week sending Low pressure over and then to the South of the UK in Week 2 and setting up a strong Easterly flow across the South to end the period still with some rain in the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is similar but holds the influence of High pressure a little longer before on this run trouble arrives from the SE with a strengthening East wind and showers for a time in the South. High pressure is then shown to reassert it's authority across many areas, again just for a time before more unsettled and cool weather returns this time from the NW at the end of the period.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning have shifted today to a much more unsettled outlook likely across the UK once we get to the 14 day time point. Most members show Low pressure in an assortment of locations, all with influence over the UK with only 30% indicating some influence from a ridge close to the South.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO

UKMO today shows High pressure building across Southern Britain and drifting out into the Southern North Sea early next week. With warm uppers aloft and High pressure at this time of year comes the recipe for some cool, misty nights and warm and sunny afternoon's once the mist and low cloud clears.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

 THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure building nicely from the SW at the weekend warding off all Atlantic troughs well to the West and NW late in the period.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning is quite similar to UKMO up to day 6 with High pressure in the Southern North sea at that time point with the UK under fine and settled weather. Fronts do make slow inroads into Western Britain later next week but make little significant progress over the rest of the UK before High pressure reasserts itself to the North of the UK at the end of the run with Easterly winds developing across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning also shows the strong High pressure area developing near SE Britain at the weekend and maintaining it's position well into next week with virtually all of the UK fine and dry with cool misty nights and bright afternoons. Any Atlantic fronts are restricted to the extreme NW corner of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning is rock solid in delivering better weather across the UK from next weekend as it continues to show rising pressure from Friday culminating in a belt of High pressure stretching across the UK next week with fine and pleasantly warm weather by day once the mist and overnight fog which could be quite extensive at times slowly clears each day.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night too shows High pressure stretched across the UK with almost universal support for fine and dry early Autumn weather with fine warm days and cool misty nights.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models remain little changed from yesterday with the majority showing sustained High pressure based weather across all areas with any breakdown held well at arms length and unclear.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ties with UKMO at 99.4 pts each with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM again ties with UKMO at 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads at 86.6 pts over UKMO at 86.4 pts then GFS at 84.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.2 pts over GFS's 51.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 35.3 pts to 33.6 pts from GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Another day and another day nearer to rather better conditions likely across the UK come the weekend moving forward. We have another two or three days of more changeable weather when Westerly winds continue to bring short spells of rain and more showery conditions across the UK. By Friday pressure rises strongly across all areas from the SW with dry and fine conditions commencing just in time for the weekend. Winds will be light and with increasingly warm uppers aloft had it been July we would be in for some very hot weather. As it is we are still likely to get well above average temperatures in the afternoons but by night cool temperatures under longer nights now will allow the formation of our Autumn peril of fog and if this become extensive enough it may become a devil to shift through some days, lifting into low cloud and suppressing temperatures as a result. However, that is the only negative I can find in an otherwise very pleasant spell coming up which could last quite a while. Of course I am always looking for long term change within the models and while there is some suggestion that a breakdown could develop late in the two week period it is certainly not a given that it will happen and certainly not necessarily in the way that some output shows today. GFS is a little worrying in that field though as all it's output show a return of wind and rain scenarios returning by day 14 backed up with it's clusters but that is the exception and should not be dwelt upon at this range. So lets look forwards to a period of fine and settled weather and fog aside lets hope the Autumn sunshine can bring some impressive early Autumn temperatures to set off the colours of the trees and bring some atmospheric scenes ideal for photographers.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3481.gif

The worse chart of the day today is GFS at T+348hrs as it shows a large and deep low to the SW of the UK and High to the North. The resultant weather over most of the UK would not necessarily be that bad but strong and cool winds with rain would likely affect the South and things could be very different if this chart verified in 4 months time with snow a real possibility for the South.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Charts don't get much better than the ECM T+240hrs chart today as it shows High pressure rock solid over the top of the UK with dry and settled weather for all with mist and fog likely to be an issue at night though. With all the backing of other output it does have a larger than usual chance of verifying than most 10 day range charts.

Next update from 09:00 Wednesday Sep 23rd 2015

The second bombing low of the season is back on the GFS 12z op run. Here's a composite I've thrown together to illustrate the 44 mb drop and impressive wind speeds generated in response to a 230 mph jet stream. How often does the jet become that strong this early in the autumn?

Current output gives me confidence for perhaps a week of dry and relatively warm weather. Encouraging and very welcome after the last 4 weeks of rain (except for the period 9-13th September). 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY SEP 23RD 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will move away East out of the UK today followed by a weakening trough later today and tonight also moving east. Tomorrow will then see a showery westerly flow across the UK with pressure rising through the day from the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled after this week with sunny spells and mist and fog by night.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow on the move from currently moving South across the UK to an axis which keeps it well to the NW of the UK on a NE'ly track for some considerable time. Then longer term it breaks up and becomes ill defined as various options between members are factored in.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to run with the theme of High pressure developing across the UK from the weekend and then moving on to become centred over Northern Europe later next week. At the same time pressure is shown to fall from the South and the resultant Easterly flow will bring cloud and showery, potentially thundery rain up into Southern Britain later next week, a process which ebbs and flows through to the end of the period with the driest and brightest weather focused more towards the North, closest to the High pressure to the North or NE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is similar to the operational with fine High pressure based weather up to the middle of next week before pressure falls from the South later next week with some rain at times especially towards the South and West which after several failed attempts makes it all the way across the UK later in the period as High pressure to the North and NE finally dissolves away

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show another mixed crop today with the pendulum still on the side of more unsettled conditions likely in 14 days time probably from Low pressure based to the North or West of the UK with varying degrees of effect on the UK, NW to SE.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure continuing to build as it forms across England at the weekend. It then floats gently out into the North Sea maintaining a strong ridge back across the UK with fine and dry weather for all in light winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure building nicely from the SW at the weekend warding off all Atlantic troughs and maintaining fine and settled weather for all once the situation has developed at the start of the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows very close resemblance to the pattern shown by GFS today in that High pressure moves steadily away to the North and NE later next week allowing an ESE flow to develop quite strongly over the South in association with quite deep Low pressure developing to the SW threatening rain into the South and West of the UK at the end of the 10 day period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning also shows High pressure edging away to the East next week but maintaining a strong ridge over the UK with winds between east and South for all but with any threat of a push from the Atlantic Low pressure held well at bay on this run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning is keeping a High pressure based theme for the UK throughout it's run this morning. there are fundamental shifts in the positioning of the High which could have implications later. As with the other output it moves to the east of the UK early next week but with a ridge maintained across the UK. It then backs West later and looks like backing off to the NW later with low pressure moving up dangerously close to the South at the same time as the door looks to be opening from a surge of cool northerly winds after the term date of this run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night too shows High pressure stretched across the UK with almost universal support for fine and dry early Autumn weather with fine warm days and cool misty nights.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models remain little changed from yesterday with the majority showing sustained High pressure based weather across all areas with any breakdown likely to come very late in the period and quite restrictive in nature.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ties with UKMO at 99.4 pts each with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM again ties with UKMO at 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads at 86.5 pts over UKMO at 86.4 pts then GFS at 84.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.6 pts over GFS's 51.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 35.0 pts to 33.5 pts from GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS We are almost upon a period of fine and settled weather which unlike any of late looks like lasting some considerable time for most if not all of the UK. We have one more trough to clear through the UK later today and tonight before a strong pressure build from the South and SW takes shape to eliminate the showery Westerly tomorrow. By the weekend High pressure should be sat across the UK where it continues to strengthen before moving gently east out into the North Sea. Fine dry and probably sunny daytime conditions will be paid for by cool and misty potentially foggy nights which could be troublesome to clear in the mornings for some. Then we have to look further forward to see where the High moves too and what affect such a movement will have on the weather over the UK. It is encouraging to see ECM maintaining High pressure locked close to the UK right out to day 10 backed up by it's mean chart at Day 10. The operational run does show the end may be nigh after Day 10 as pressure is put on it from the South and later still the North as the High pulls back towards the NW. GFS on the other hand takes the High away to the NE rather quicker with more unsettled weather with rain at times moving up across at least the South and west later next week and eventually for all, This theme has some support from GEM too this morning with NAVGEM and UKMO looking more akin to taking the ECM route. So it looks like 4-5 days at least of universally fine conditions for the UK from Friday and probably a lot longer for most with any breakdown not showing enough support to guarantee at the moment and as long as we have ECM' fine weather in 10 days time on board which verifies best at the 10 day range I refuse to believe GFS and GEM in isolation. So lets sit back and enjoy the coming fine spell and hope that the slow clearance of overnight mists and fogs do not hamper what could be an Autumn warm and sunny period for all and not just the SE of the UK this time.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

The worse chart of the day today goes to the GEM +240hr chart which shows a slow moving and deep depression just off the SW of England pumping warm and very moist SE winds carrying a lot of rain to Southern and Western Britain in particular.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

I like this chart solely because it shows a newly developed anticyclone which has recently intensified and is slow moving to bring many days of fine and settled weather to all parts of the UK and not just for some. With a gentle feed off a relatively warm Europe some pleasantly warm Autumn daytime temperatures would occur from this set-up after fog clearance.

Next update from 09:00 Thursday Sep 24th 2015

Very interesting ECM run today, in the near term mainly due to the countrywide pleasant daytime weather that could result so long as Fog does not become a problem. However what ECM does with that high is what has really interested me with signs of retrogression (with perhaps if it continued after +240) all the way to Greenland by the end of the run?

At T+192:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Then at T+240:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

That's not that common to see and having watched Gavin P's excellent historic videos, signs of retrogression in September / October seems to be tied in with colder than average winters that follow. Of course all totally FI and could be gone tomorrow never to reappear this month, but not the first time GFS and ECM have played with this idea during various runs so one to watch.  Either way quite an unusual September from what we have had for many years currently and does at the moment look like it will end up below average as well.

Finally not strictly MO, but for anyone else watching the snow cover over Siberia this seems even quicker to increase than last year (which in itself was a rapid year for snow cover build up) perhaps tied in to the different conditions we are having?

Current:

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

Comparison:

http://www.climate4you.com/SnowCover.htm

Could mean absolutely nothing and is just posted here for interest as MO thread is quite quiet.

The 0z ECM control run is similar in evolution and does go beyond 240 - out to 360, in fact.

The high absorbs the Greenland ridge and wobbles its way eastwards to Scandinavia, declining slowly as it does so. Another ridge then moves over the UK and heads northwards, building and recentering itself west of Scandinavia. Meanwhile a large "dartboard" low forms west of the UK and develops additional secondary lows - unable to reach the UK due to the high forming to the NNE.

A spell of SSE'lies and SE'lies ensues as a result.

(The general theme of the 15-day control runs and 32-day ECM runs recently has been one of northern blocking as we move into October.)

That sounds very nice if you ask me. Interesting implications for winter. But time will tell.

And that will have a bearing on what CET I go for, for October. Admittedly I did go for below average figures for the past few months - But I didn't go nearly low enough. :-)

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY SEP 24TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will clear SE England this morning followed by a showery Westerly flow weakening later today and tonight as High pressure builds from the South and SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled after this week with sunny spells and mist and fog by night.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow migrating to the NW of the UK over the next 24-48hrs as pressure builds across the UK from the South or SW. It persists to the NW for a good week or so before breaking up into a more discreet pattern through the second week but still staying largely to the NW of the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to show High pressure building strongly across the UK in the next few days and then on into Northern Europe. Once there it holds a ridge back across the UK for a while maintaining fine and settled weather. However, an easterly flow is shown to develop across the South later next week with a fall of pressure from the SE and South with some showery rain breaking out. The rest of the run is a lottle more changeable but pressure recovers somewhat again later with a lot of fine weather still around in 14 days time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is very similar to it's operational brother today with fine and dry conditions dominant through the period but with a period mid run when High pressure relaxes away somewhat for a time to allow some occasional showery rain to affect the UK in slack winds for a time before we end up back where we started with High pressure reasserting itself across the UK.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show rather less emphasis on Low pressure at Day 14 with the most likely scenario of Low pressure to the NW and High to the South maintaining a weak Westerly bias with rain at times most likely towards the North and NW.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure moving across the UK over the weekend and then over towards northern Germany while maintaining a ridge back across the UK maintaining fine and dry weather for all away from the far NW until midweek at least.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning illustrate the build of High pressue well with fine and settled conditions developing across the UK from tomorrow and lasting through to the end of the period as the High slowly migrates to the east next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows the same High pressure area crossing the UK and away into Northern Europe next week maintaining a ridge back West across northern areas while an Easterly flow developing across Southern Britain with slowly falling pressure later, sufficient enough to support the development of showers later in the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning has High pressure straddled across the UK all the way today with the main centre moving across into Europe maintaining a strong ridge back West over Northern Britain and the Eastern Atlantic later next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning has backed off somewhat from it's retrogression pattern of yesterday maintaining High pressure close to the UK throughout the run today. It drifts off to the east early next week before reassering itself close to northern Britain late in the run. All this just means a maintained pattern of fine and settled weather for all of the UK with rain if any at all restricted to the far ends of the UK both NW and SE very briefly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night too shows High pressure stretched across the UK with almost universal support for fine and dry early Autumn weather with fine warm days and cool misty nights.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models remain little changed from yesterday with the majority showing sustained High pressure based weather across all areas with any breakdown likely to come very late in the period and quite restrictive in nature. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ties with UKMO at 99.4 pts each with GFS coming in third at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM again ties with UKMO at 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM and UKMO lead at 86.3 pts over GFS at 84.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.9 pts over GFS's 51.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 34.9 pts to 33.6 pts from GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS All indications still look good for a sustained period of fine anticyclonic weather moving over the UK from 24-48hrs time and then largely remaining in place for at least a week and maybe two Today's showery Westerly flow is probably the last day that any risk of rain exists for the South for at least aweek as all models show High pressure building North and NE across the UK over the weekend and on into Northern Europe. Once there it is scheduled to maintain a strong ridge back across the UK with fine and dry weather for all as a result. The air should be reasonably dry so sunshine amounts should be quite generous for many but cool nights could generate some night and morning mist and fog patches which may prove slow to clear for a few. Later next week there is some suggestion that a breezier period of east winds develops across the South with GFS still showing a breakdown from this scenario to showers, at first over the South then later for all but most output keep any showers just off shore towards our continental neighbours while we stay largely fine and probably warm by day. ECM has been suggesting that retrogression of the High back across the UK and away to the NW was likely in the latter stages of the 10 day period yesterday but this theme has been dropped this morning, backed up by it's mean data. So with little indication of a desire from any model to change the pattern quickly it looks like we can look forward to a fine mid Autumn spell as we enter October with some warmth and sunshine to be felt for many by day but as the days continue to shorten we muct be mindful that mist and fog and it's slow clearance could be an issue which if verified would change the complexion of weather felt at the surface immensely. Nevertheless, rainfall amounts and any strong winds should be low or maybe non-existent for most parts of the UK over the next two weeks if most of the output this morning verifies as shown.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

The worse chart of the day today as yesterday goes to the GEM +240 hr chart which is hardly that bad to be honest but does show pressure having fallen away sufficiently across the UK following the fine spell, enough to promote showery rain at times for all.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Today's best chart goes to the ECM model for 10 days too showing a stark contrast from GEM at that time. This chart is liked by me as it comes on the back of an already week long fine High pressure based spell and with High pressure positioned close to the North as such would likely deliver many more days of fine and settled weather nationally for some considerable time thereafter.

Next update from 09:00 Friday Sep 25th 2015

ECM looks ripe for a lot of fog during the working days next week, but GFS has more of an easterly breeze, backing southeasterly later as LP develops west of Iberia.

Certainly some curious patterns emerging in the near future and with a notable lack of runs finding a way to power the Atlantic lows back to our shores. For London, only two GEFS members get below 1010 mb out to 10th October.

The long range guidance from the Met Office ensemble, CFSv2 and JMA suggests a stormy run of weather is likely to develop by sometime between mid-October and early November. They could have it wrong, though...

Yesterday's 0z ECM 32-day control run shows two weeks of high pressure influencing the UK, followed by a week of zonality. A high then builds near Iceland and hangs around for the rest of the run, drawing in some very cold air (for the time of year) over Scotland - the -5C isotherm at 850 arrives at T+600 and remains over Scotland until T+744. After that some less-cold air gets drawn in as the high sinks SE'wards.

A wonderful outlook. If I lived in NE Scotland and my name was Michael I would be keeping half an eye on the behaviour of the high pressure cell. Retrogression to Greenland, even in early October can draw in very cold air. Early October 1994 snowfalls springs to mind. 

 Lovely spell of weather on the way. Looks quite warm as well. Certainly warm enough to be sat outside when the sun is out after any early mist or fog has burnt off

..and perfectly timed for me with two weeks off work. I should imagine depending on the positioning of the cell that low 20's will pop up somewhere each afternoon for the foreseeable. Good times .

Oh go on then, I'll take that. I'll bank this outlook for Kent.



Of course, anything beyond five days becomes guesswork but an extended dry spell would be most welcome after what has been a wetter than average September, even if we do miss out on the "Indian Summer"-style warmth (note the wind having a tendency to be coming in from the east or north east, even though the SST's over the North Sea is at it's warmest).
  Just hope we don't end up paying the price for it by having a stormy end to October and into November (aka, Autumn 2013 which started off on a quiet and peaceful note and then suddenly went downhill in the second half of that season, but last Autumn was much more kinder to us).

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY SEP 25TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Pressure will continue to rise across the UK today and tomorrow with an anticyclone developing over Southern Britain with a weak warm front affecting the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled after this week with sunny spells and mist and fog by night.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow likely to remain well to the NW of the UK over the coming week or so where it blows NE across Iceland quite strongly. Later in the period the flow becomes disjointed and un-clear in location as pressure areas become more complex.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to run with High pressure crossing the UK and away to the East and NE over the next week. This eventually leads to a freshening Easterly flow across the South of the UK with increased stability as well and likely to produce showery rain at times to break out across the South later next week. This is then the forerunner of a more cyclonic spell of weather with increasing amounts of rain and showers for all areas but more pronounced across Southern parts than elsewhere.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning follows a similar pattern with 4-5 days of quiet settled weather which persists longer in the North while Southern areas see a pool of more unstable air move NW late next week with some showers. This then culminates in more changeable weather for all under slack pressure which later evolves into a chilly cyclonic Northerly as Low pressure slips South or SE down the North Sea with rising pressure again in it's wake.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning continue to show quite mixed messages but there is a bias towards High pressure lying close to the UK in one shape or form with a 80%/20% favour of this over anything more unsettled.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure close to the UK over the next 6 days gradually transferring East or NE across us over the coming days and then back west towards Scotland later next week with fine weather for all areas looking likely but with a nagging Easterly breeze developing in the South from early next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure in control of the UK weather for the duration of it's run parked just to the East or NE with a strong ridge across the UK with fine and settled weather for most if not all of the UK as a result.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows High pressure dominating throughout as it first sets up shop to the east or NE over the coming days before moving back West to Scotland early next week. Then over the period leading up to next weekend the High slips South to Southern England maintaining fine and settled conditions here while the North sees a West or SW flow developing with increasing cloud and eventually some rain in places.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning also shows High pressure ridging across the UK over the coming days and then persisting in one shape or another throughout next week maintaining a lot of dry and fine weather with variable amounts of cloud and sunshine.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning completes the set and shows High pressure close to or over the UK from now until the end of next week at least. A period of blustery east winds may affect the South for a time next week but it should stay largely dry. Later in the run and most likely next weekend pressure is shown to fall and low pressure troughs over the Atlantic look like making their move NE into the UK with a freshening SE breeze.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night too showed High pressure having migrated slightly West of the UK maintaining mostly fine weather for many but perhaps introducing the risk of cloud and rain in the North as weak troughs round the High moving SE across Scotland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models remain little changed from yesterday with the majority showing sustained High pressure based weather across all areas with any breakdown likely to come very late in the period and quite unclear in nature. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ties with UKMO at 99.4 pts each with GFS coming in third at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM again ties with UKMO at 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6pts. At 5 days ECM and UKMO lead at 86.3 pts then GFS at 84.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.9 pts over GFS's 51.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 34.9 pts to 33.6 pts from GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS High pressure is still very much the commanding force affecting the UK weather over the coming two weeks. Almost without exception High pressure is shown to build strongly across the UK in the coming day or two before settling down to the NE of the UK but maintaining a strong ridge back across Britain. The only fly in the ointment is the risk of cloud and rain in the extreme NW in the next few days and also the faint suggestion that still exists this morning that a freshening Easterly flow across the South next week could have enough instability within it to promote a few showers, though this looks less likely from this morning's output than existed yesterday. What it will have the effect of is to reduce the risk of overnight fog and touches of frost that may affect the North next week under the axis of the ridge. All areas will see a lot of fine and dry conditions and there should be plenty of warm sunshine especially in the afternoons and in the West of the UK. then looking forward there is still mixed messages on whether the HIgh maintains it's grip out to the end of the second week too or whether it declines into more unsettled and cyclonic conditions hinted at from both GFS and latterly ECM. It all looks a little uncertain at the moment so I will not enlarge on it this morning and just summarise that the UK looks like settling into a sustained period of fine and settled weather with day to day changes restricted to just varying amounts of cloud and wind which would also affect amounts of overnight fog and frost that is possible with all places having a good chance of some warm sunshine each afternoon.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=336&mode=0&carte=0

Unlikely to verify as shown but my eye was drawn to this chart from the GFS Control Run as the worse chart of the day as this would dip the UK deep into Autumn with a cold and blustery North and NW wind with below average temperatures and rain or showers for much of the UK.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1681.gif

I like this chart as it's a week away and should follow what would of already been a sustained spell of fine and settled High pressure based conditions which look like being maintained for a considerable time thereafter if that chart evolves as shown.

Next update from 09:00 Saturday Sep 26th 2015

thanks for your output gibby interesting as always, they have been saying in some long/medium range forecast the last week of September and first week of October, and maybe going up to mid month of october is going to be settled dry and warm, from then on a decline and change in the weather to more unsetted wet and windy weather that will lead us into November and there on, if that's the case it will make weather model watching more interesting viewing,