Indeed.

Just an autumnal high with fairly warm afternoons but chilly nights with some fog possible.

The nights are really closing in now as the sun gets lower in the sky.

Personally I wouldn't mind something a bit more kick-ass as we head deeper in Autumn Very boring year for weather on this side of the pond this year.

why because it's an error? It shows low pressure (T) right on top of the country ! It should be a H

Both the ECM and GFS op runs manage to take a wedge of cold air from western Russia on day 4 and bring it through the UK three days later. An uncanny coincidence?

Here's the ECM version to illustrate:

The GFS 06z op was also similar but with the cold pool further north. I say cold - it will be heavily modified by then so just a nagging chill really, temps still making into the mid-teens in any sunshine.

Both that run and the ECM 12z op have that cold pool travelling far enough west to interact with the Atlantic jet and cause a trough in the mid-Atlantic to extend unusually far south.

The 12z GFS op has other ideas, walling off the Atlantic with another strong area of high pressure, trapping the cool pool over the UK and then bringing about the first 'direct' Arctic incursion of the season - albeit a Typical Toppler 

Certainly it seems to be the behaviour of high pressure that dictates proceedings far more than that of low pressure for the next week or so.

ECM 12z 10 mean pressure pattern and rainfall %. Looking very dry for most, but seems to be picking up on a potential showery trough disruption to the south later in the run.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SATURDAY SEP 26TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An anticyclone will continue to build aacross the UK today and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly settled and fine well into October.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow likely to remain well to the NW of the UK over the coming week or so where it blows NE across Iceland quite strongly. Later in the period the flow turns South across the UK in association of a trough developing near the United Kingdom.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure building across the UK currently and also across Northern Europe early next week. Fine and settled weather will reside for all. Through next week pressure falls over Southern Europe and an Easterly flow develops across the South. This fall in pressure affects the South of the UK in the risk of showers later next week. Then as pressure falls more significantly for all areas the High dissolves away and relocates to the NW of the UK allowing a surge of very cool and unsettled weather to move down from the North with the risk of some early snowfall for the Scottish mountains at times and some air frost at night where winds fall light and skies clear.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning follows a similar route in the next week with the South having a strong and gusty period of East winds late next week with some showery rain. This run departs from the Operational's route in Week 2 with somewhat less influence of a change to widely unsettled weather with some fine and dry if cool weather still around especially for the North where frosts at night would be prevalent while the South remain at risk from occasional showery rain as Low pressure flirts with Southern Britain at times.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning continue to show quite a lot of variability at the 14 day mark suggesting that the path is quite unclear in the longer term again today. There is a range of options that show High pressure remaining in control across Central and Southern areas with only the North seeing Atlantic's influence and rain while other members show a cocktail of synoptic's some good, some bad with a 15% group suggesting a Northerly similar to the Operational run.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure anchored over the UK for much of next week maintaining fine and settled weather UK wide with mist and fogs at night with touches of frost too but much compensatory warm sunny spells for most in the afternoon's.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning support the raw data well maintaining a strong ridge across the UK for most of next week with fine and settled weather as a result.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning is again largely supportive of the main of other model output in that High pressure remains in control for much of the period, moving first to the NE and then back West across the UK and eventually out into the Atlantic. After a stiff breeze in the South later next week and the risk of a shower the weather turns dry again for most towards the end of the period as a slack and chilly Northerly flow under a ridge keeps rain bearing systems away from the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning has High pressure dominant across the UK over the next week with only a suggestion at the very end of the period covering next weekend that a few showers could be approaching the SE from Europe as the High pulls back a little out into the North Atlantic.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning completes the set and shows High pressure close to or over the UK from now until the end of the period. The centre does shuffle around somewhat with a period of fresh and gusty East winds over the far South next week but only the risk of a few isolated showers in the extreme South for a time. This run attempts a retrogression of the High to the West of the UK through the latter half of next week but fails in this with the end of the period reflecting High pressure still strongly ensconced over Scotland and the North Sea with fine and dry weather for all with misty and cold nights for many but potentially bright and warm afternoons.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows a typical open pattern shown where there is obviously quite a split in the individual member's output meaning not too much can be read into this chart's showing today.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models remain little changed from yesterday with the majority showing sustained High pressure based weather across all areas with any breakdown likely to come very late in the period and quite unclear in nature.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ties with UKMO at 99.4 pts each with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is ahead of UKMO at 96.5 pts to 96.4 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6pts. At 5 days ECM leads UKMO at 86.4 pts to 86.3 pts then GFS at 84.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.9 pts over GFS's 51.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 34.2 pts to 33.0 pts from GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Overall there remains little change in the output this morning particularly in the short to medium term. High pressure is going to remain the dominant role player over the UK for a considerable time to come as the centre crosses the UK and away to the East and NE before reasserting itself near northern Britain late next week. The only caveat to the overall fine, settled and often sunny weather by day and cool misty conditions overnight is the increase of wind likely across Southern England later next week which could give a shower or two for a time but it's only GFS and GEM who show his risk to be anything of significance while the Euro's fight shy of this outcome and maintain dry and fine weather for all. Then looking further out into the second week we see GFS do a complete retrogression of the High pressure area away to the NW of the UK scenario within it's operational run which has been hinted at from quite a bit of the output at times of late. In this case it would feed very cool and unsettled weather down across the UK later in the second week with even some snow for the Scottish hills and mountains and of course frosts at night. However, this is unlikely to verify as cross model support within it's own members amounts to only 15% and is not supported either by ECM or only limply by GEM. So we are still looking like a week to 10 days and maybe more of fine and settled weather across the UK when rainfall amounts will be very small or non existent and while there will no doubt be some days of stubborn mist and low cloud to push out the away all parts should see a lot of daytime sunshine, quite warm in the afternoons and a continuation of chilly nights. Any chance of a significant change to wet and windy weather within the next two weeks this morning continues to look quite small within the output on offer today.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.gif

An unsavoury chart as the worst chart of the day today comes from the GFS Operational run at T+336hrs with a deep Low across Southern Britain having moved down from well Northern latitudes and delivering very cool, windy and often wet weather for all as a result.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

The best chart of the day has to be the UKMO 6 day chart as it illustrates how well established our currently developing anticyclone looks likely to be showing a centre across the UK next Friday with the continuing theme of fine and settled conditions for the whole UK with mist and fogs at night and perfect Autumn conditions for the UK as a whole, likely to last onward from this chart for several more days at least.

Next update from 09:00 Monday Sep 28th 2015

The GFS 00z operational has little support from the other models which may be a relief to some as it was particularly chilly in lower-res (days 10-16) and sets up for an exceptionally cold run of days to follow. A reckon a final CET in the mid-8's would be achievable for the month as a whole if that verified.

Days 7-10, the ECM 00z obliterates the HP to our NW that Greenland uses to bring about that chilly theme, as LP surges NE from the U.S.

We have some unusual disagreement between the models at a much earlier point in time though - just three days from now, ECM throws far more in the way of warm air up across the UK than GFS. It seems to be down to the timing of an unusually intense low in the middle of the North Atlantic. A slower progression 'scoops up' more warm air.

Disagreement remains large thereafter, as ECM circulates the warm air around a distinct high pressure cell right over the UK, but GFS has the high linking up with a ridge over Scandinavia and pulling in some fairly chilly air from the east - though this has been reduced substantially on the 06z op run... is this GFS backing down? The 12z op run out to +120 so far continues the trend.

The 12z GFS op hasn't slowed that storm down though... and boy does it slam Iceland hard:

Not far off hurricane force sustained winds there (which are described as causing 'devastation' on the Beaufort Wind Scale).

The 06z was slightly further west with the storm and had slightly stronger winds, making the 12z a slightly better outcome... relatively speaking.

Short on time to post text and links across to you today so here's a link to my website analysis page where you can read my report.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Thank you Martin.  Been across to the website.   It Is Bookmarked for daily visits. Though webcam is not performing .. At least not on my Laptop.

Love these fine dry chilly nights for getting out the telescope or spotting scopes. 

thanks for the heads up on the webcam. I will have it back online by this evening.

Looking excellent, Martin. 5 more months of this to take us into Spring will be perfect

wow they said exactly that over on netweather, I think GFS because its always the odd one out ECM seems to verify and be more reliable model than GFS but then im no expert,

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY SEP 28TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure area will continue to dominate the weather across the UK through the period as it drifts gradually to the NE of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly settled and fine at first but more unsettled and windy thereafter with rain or showers at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the main arm and core of the flow remaining well to the North of the UK for the first week of this morning's forecast period. It then troughs South just to the West of the UK in a week or so time which opens the door for a strengthening flow to move East over the Atlantic to push the flow East on a much more Southerly course again across the UK in the second week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure across Northern Britain for all of the coming week with fine and settled weather for all areas as a result with variable cloud cover. Then towards the end of next weekend pressure falls steadily and the second week comparatively becomes windy and unsettled with rain and showers developing for all as deep Low pressure to the North of the UK pushes rain bearing troughs East across the UK with temperatures near average or a little below at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is quite supportive of the operational this morning, not just for the first week as yesterday but for the second week 2 with a much more mobile weather pattern developing across the UK from next weekend as pressure falls and a strong Westerly airflow with rain at times develops and lasts throughout the rest of the period.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning have swung more towards a return to unsettled and windy weather again especially over the North and West of the UK for two weeks time with a much smaller group of members supporting a ridge holding on across the South.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today also supports a fall in pressure next weekend as this weeks High pressure and fine weather finally slips away to the ESE next weekend. While it will stay dry through the forecast period by Day 6 (Sunday) a slowly freshening Southerly breeze will show troughs edging into Western Britain from off the Atlantic

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure close to or over the UK up to and including Day 5 with fine and settled weather for the UK with a stiff Easterly breeze across the far South at times.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows a slightly slower transgression towards more unsettled weather leaving it until early next week before troughs edge into the UK from the West and leading to an unsettled spell later next week with wind and rain at times for all. This of course all follows this weeks fine and settled weather for the whole UK bar the very far North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also supports falling pressure next weekend but from a slightly different source being the NW with an increasing SW breeze and some rain moving slowly SE across the UK following what will of been a week of fine and settled conditions under High pressure.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning also follows the deteriorating course of weather beginning from next weekend. In the meantime fine and settled weather prevails as High pressure remains locked over or near the UK. then at the weekend it declines to the east and a SSW flow develops with Low pressure developing to the west and moving into the UK later as quite a deep feature completely transforming the weather to quite wet and windy conditions for all by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night illustrates a swing towards more unsettled weather with SW winds and rain at times by Dy 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have strengthened their trend towards more unsettled conditions developing across the UK from the end of next weekend as all models support a fall of pressure.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead of UKMO at 99.5 pts to 99.4 with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is tied with UKMO at 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads UKMO at 86.7 pts to 86.4 pts then GFS at 84.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.3 pts over GFS's 53.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 34.4 pts to 33.9 pts from GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS It appears finally that we have a lot of agreement on when and how the current fine and settled weather will end. In the meantime we have another 5-6 days of rock solid High pressure based weather with the centre often covering the UK and ensuring a lot of fine and dry weather with variable cloud and sunny spells by day but still with chilly nights with mist and fog and a touch of frost in the less breezy North. Then it's at the weekend when pressure looks to fall and while the weekend itself looks like staying dry at the start of next week fronts finally make there move into the UK from the West or SW. Conditions then look likely to deteriorate significantly next week with rain and showers in abundance and winds becoming strong at times too as Low pressure areas make inroads across or close to the UK. Temperatures will naturally decline in the wind and rain and even when it's brighter and more showery it will feel cool in a blustery breeze from a West or NW source. It should be noted that while there is strong agreement on the weather turning unsettled next week there is plenty of disharmony on the details of this at the moment between the models so expect a continuation of further shifts of emphasis on speed and extent of change in subsequent output but with a Jet flow which looks like ratcheting up a few gears next week and on a much more Southerly track than this week there is a fair chance of the breakdown coming to pass I'm afraid. So lets enjoy the next 5-6 days as by this time next week it looks like Autumn will be taking on a more usual guise of wind and rain rather than fine and settled.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM at 10 Days offers us the worst chart of the day with a deep Low pressure belt stretching from the UK and to the North with another centre mid Atlantic maintaining unsettled and often wet and cool conditions looking like lasting some while as any build of pressure looks hard to acquire from the pressure distribution as shown.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

The best chart of the day unsurprisingly comes from this week and today's offering is the 4 day chart from ECM which shows High pressure centred right across the UK with fine and settled weather at that time for all areas with light winds and no chance of rain.

Next update from 09:00 Tuesday Sep 29th 2015

Turned out to be 5 more days.

Unavoidable descent into autumn on the GEFS in my back yard:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=209&y=165

850 temps slope unmistakably downwards and a jungle of precipitation spikes suddenly appear once October gets going.

Signs of the Atlantic gaining ground just after the weekend and into next week with the threat of our first gales and bands of heavy rain. Turning quite chilly to with time.

Well it was too good to last wasn't it. One of the features of this hp for me has been the surprising lack of mist and fog. Take last night for example: gin clear skies and light winds should have been ideal recipe for fog, yet I woke up to gin clear skies and blazing sunshine. That despite living in a favoured area for mist and fog - the Thames Valley.

I had dense fog yesterday morning and this morning.

Very autumnal and chilly to first thing with thick dew everywhere.

That is the type of autumnal weather I love. "Mists & mellow fruitfulness" indeed.

Fog this morning and yesterday. A common occurrence anyway and I knew it would be an issue with these charts. Takes forever to clear.

I take it you didn't notice the 7-12mph breeze from the ESE

More than enough to keep fog from forming.

Week 2 shows an extensive area of northern Russia with below freezing average temps - quite early for that sort of thing. http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html