I am still 0.6C too high.

I hope it rises a bit.

Here is the latest update from my CET calculations. It looks like the CET will finish below 13C on current output despite the possibility of a slightly less cold end to the month. Current estimate is 12.76C. This would make it the coldest September since 1994 and we could get the coldest September since 1993 if the less cold conditions don't materialise at the end of the month. The running CET mean has been below 13C every day since the 2nd.

We have now had 5 months in a row with below average temperatures (using 1971-2000 as the reference period). Last time that happened was July to November 1993. All five of those months were more than 1C below average. That was an especially cold period.

June 2008 to January 2009 nearly saw 8 months in a row below average but August was average and November 0.1C above average. However, all 8 months were below the 1981-2010 mean.

Thanks GW!

I'm very, very pleased how my September guess has gone. Was very worried about it at one point, LOL!

Met Office Hadley    13.2c.    Anomaly    -0.8c.  Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                12.75c.  Anomaly    -0.97c.   To Date

Netweather             13.29c.  Anomaly    -0.41c.   To Date

Clevedon Weather   14.3c.    Anomaly    -2.3c.    Provisional

Mount  Sorrel          12.8c.    Anomaly   -0.9c.      To Date

 My Mean                13.6c.    Anomaly   -1.7c.     Provisional

My Annual     11.2c.  Difference  5.5c.  Provisional.

looks like I'll lose more points. :-(

Me too!  This could be the end of my reign on the top table. 

Just need HP to align nicely for a warm final few days and perhaps I could have two months in a row with very low errors.

I'm glad I ditched the models after July's poor result. Gut instinct is doing remarkably well by comparison 

:-) In many respects this is turning out to be quite an amazing year in a lot ways. For those who like cold and snow - I think their luck might be in this winter.

And that is a gut instinct.

My gut has served me well so far this year, but my memory let me down and my late entry in February scored me some unwanted penalties.  Now, I need warm days and cloudy nights for the CET to rise a bit over the coming week. 

My latest CET estimate for September is just 12.60C. I suspect it will probably drift lower still if we do get plenty of cold mornings between now and the end of the month.

So likely to be the coldest September since 1993

Heaven forbid - I've bolloxed almost as badly as I did in July if it ends up at 12.6C

Met Office Hadley       13.2c.      Anomaly       -0.8c.   Provisional to 22nd

Metcheck                   12.64c.    Anomaly       -1.08c.

Netweather                13.22c.    Anomaly       -0.48c.

Clevedon Weather       14.2c.     Anomaly       -2.4c.

Mount  Sorrel              12.7c.     Anomaly       -1.0c.

My Mean                     13.5c.    Anomaly        -1.8c.       

I

Weren't January to June 2013 all below average and all below 1961-90 averages at that? That's 6 month in a row and against 1971-2000 averages, September 2012 to June 2013 were all below 1971-2000 averages which makes that 10 in a row.

Thanks GW!

A proper cold September has been a VERY long time coming.

Met Office Hadley    13.1c.    Anomaly   -0.8c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                12.68c.  Anomaly   -1.05c.

Netweather            13.21c.   Anomaly   -0.49c.

Clevedon Weather   14.2c.    Anomaly   -2.4c. 

Mount Sorrel           12.8c.    Anomaly   -1.0c.

My Mean                 13.5c.    Anomaly   -1.8c.

My latest estimate has the CET at just 12.52C by the end of the month which is 1.52C below the 1981-2010 mean.

26 of the 30 days this month are expected to return a below average CET (as against the 1981-2010 mean). The last time we had more below average days in a single month was the exceptional month of March 2013 (coldest March since 1892) when there were 29 of 31 days below the mean.

These numbers are getting quite low now in historical terms.  There are only 10 instances of lower CET in the last 100 years (and they are grouped mainly in the colder years of early 70' 's, 50's and particularly the 20's).  Over the whole record of CET it places us about 73 out of 358. This moderate position is  due to the huge number of low temps in the 18th century, pushing us down the list.

This has been achieved inspite of the lack of any major cold polar outbreak. It surely must show what the cold sst's in the north Atlantic are doing to our weather.

Met Office Hadley       13.1c.      Anomaly      -0.7c.

Metcheck                   12.65c.    Anomaly      -1.07c.

Netweather                13.23c.    Anomaly      -0.47c.

Clevedon Weather      14.2c.      Anomaly       -2.4c.

Mount Sorrel              12.7c.      Anomaly       -1.0c

My Mean                    13.5c.      Anomaly       -1.8c.

Andy..

Not sure what you are saying here.

Sept 2014 was 15.09C which was  1.38 above the 71-00 CET. It was 1.02 above the  81-10 values.

This year it is 13.1C  currently and that is  0.61C below the 71-00 mean of 13.71, but 1.03C below the 81-10 figure of 14.07C.

I am not aware that this years CET was ever the same as last years. (Or is that just an example?), since it has been lower since day 1.

But anyway for my part, this is a competition forum, it is not a test of memory, and it is not involved in any climate change discussion  - infact a lot of the people taking part will not have been born in 1971. So it means nothing to them. I would ideally like to see the last 10 years on here used as a comparison, but I realise the information is not as readily available from the Met Office. 

Met Office Hadley      13.1c.    Anomaly     -0.7c. Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                  12.56c.  Anomaly     -1.16c.

Netweather               13.17c.  Anomaly     -0.54c.

Clevedon Weather      14.2c.   Anomaly     -2.4c.

Mount Sorrel              12.6c.   Anomaly     -1.1c.

My Mean                    13.5c.   Anomaly     -1.8c.