Ah. Excuse me ECM, but perhaps you'd better let the beast from the east have breakfast and get dressed before rousing it from its long slumber? Its clearly not ready for business just yet, though I'll admit those sub minus 10*C 850's aren't bad going for such an early time.

GFS is being its usual self and driving the jet NE into the continent. Yet ECM was up to that too until this evening, so it stands as the more likely outcome for the time being - a run of unsettled westerlies, though not necessarily the flat west-east variant that GFS keeps putting out.

What I 'd love to know is how the October of 1740 delivered a CET of just 5C. That most have been some amazing synoptics there.

No not really..there is only a small area of - anomaly. Nothing unusual here.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY SEP 29TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure to the North and NE of the UK will persist with an Easterly flow over the far South and a cloudier SW flow over the far NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly settled and fine at first but more unsettled and windy thereafter with rain or showers at times especially over the North and West.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the main arm and core of the flow remaining well to the North of the UK for the time being before it realigns much further South for a time next week. It then becomes broken and disorganized again later in week 2.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure across Northern Britain for the rest of this week before it declines over the weekend in response to a slowly increasing South or SW flow. Low pressure then brings a period of more unsettled conditions with some rain next week before High pressure edges back onto the scene towards the end of the period, first to the South and West and then elsewhere too as it becomes rather cold under North or NE breezes.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is less supportive of a meaningful return to High pressure once the breakdown occurs this coming weekend. Instead it shows a more unstable Atlantic driven pattern with Low pressure in close attendance to the UK with it's positioning over the UK next week and then to the North with strong winds and rain at times for all late in the period

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show a real muddly set of options ranging from a Scandinavian anticyclone to Low pressure close to the South to a basic majority of 40% leaning towards a more mobile Atlantic driven pattern in response to Low pressure to the NW.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure declining at the weekend but holding on longer over the North and East. Rain looks like reaching parts of the South and West by the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure close to or over the UK up to the last day of the 5 day period when a disturbance from France brings a risk of showers by the end of the weekend to Southernmost Britain.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows High pressure breaking down at the weekend as it dissolves away East. With pressure falling the risk of rain increases markedly from the beginning of next week, first in the South and West and quickly for all as a deep Low crossing the UK is shown to bring a spell of very wet and windy weather with gales next week. Thereafter a North/South split in the weather is highlighted with the South seeing the best of any dry weather while rain at times continues across the North in a standard Autumn Westerly airflow to end the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning also shows falling pressure at the weekend and deep Low pressure developing over the Atlantic. This supports fairly mild but very moist Southerly winds as we move into next week with rain, heavy at times in the West but less so in the East where dry weather may hang on rather longer.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning also shows the fall of pressure next weekend leading into a spell of more unsettled conditions especially across the North and West. It looks like deep Low pressure over the Atlantic to start next week will be maintained to the NW of the UK thereafter with SW winds strong at times and spells of rain or showers at times for all with some drier interludes too especially in the SE where it may feel quite mild at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night illustrates a swing towards more unsettled weather with SW winds and rain at times on Day 10 in association with Low pressure up to the NW of Britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have maintained their trend towards more unsettled conditions developing across the UK from the end of next weekend as all models continue to support a fall of pressure. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead of UKMO at 99.5 pts to 99.4 with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 96.7 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days UKMO leads ECM at 86.9 pts to 86.7 pts then GFS at 84.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.4 pts over GFS's 54.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM just leads GFS at 35.0 pts to 34.9 pts from GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The weather still looks set to deteriorate across the British Isles, for a few at the weekend and more generally from early next week. The large Autumn anticyclone that will of lasted a week or so will begin to decline at the weekend as pressure is put upon it from both the South and West and some showery rain may reach the South at some point over the weekend which will be joined from the West by more substantial troughs and associated rains early next week. Then the methodology of how the more unsettled pattern develops is less clear cut than could be with a desire today to push the wettest conditions up towards the North and West later next week while the South and East might not see to much rain. This is entirely dependant on the Jet stream flow moving back North somewhat later which GFS hints at this morning along with the latter stages of GEM and ECM also hinting at this. Whatever happens there will be a lot of moist air around with winds from a SW quarter sucking up a lot of moisture so rainfall in the North and West at least could become quite copious. GEM also shows a major active storm system for a time next week which is fortunately in isolation at the moment but certainly would give the UK it's first widespread Autumn gales of the season. So on balance what we have this morning is slightly less focused on rain and wind than the models were showing yesterday morning and while most places look like reverting back to somewhat more unsettled conditions it maybe that the East and parts of the South won't see too much rain but in the west and NW quite a lot could occur especially over higher ground. Finally with winds looking like settling South or SW'ly from early next week temperatures should hold up reasonably well and chilly nights should generally become less significant than of late.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1921.gif

The accolade of the worst chart of the day today goes to the GEM Model with it's 192hr chart showing a deep Low across the UK with widespread gales and spells of heavy rain for all.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm481.gif

The best chart of the day comes as no surprise as being one close to the present as that is the only time when widespread fine weather looks likely from today's output. I have selected the ECM 48hr chart which shows High pressure orientated nicely across the UK blocking all attacks from Low pressure at that time from affecting the UK.

Next update from 09:00 Wednesday Sep 30th 2015

So another shambolic mid to latter term model effort then? LRFs. Just LOL

It 'feels' to me as if things are starting to trend away from unsettled conditions in the south next week. High pressure to the east also appears to want to suck up some quite warm southerlies too and provide some resistance from the atlantic too. Next week is far from decided IMO. 

Exactly - Going the CET for October is proving to be a hard call.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY SEP 30TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure to the North and NE of the UK remains in control of the weather across the UK today and tomorrow and beyond.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly settled and fine at first but more unsettled and windy thereafter with rain or showers at times especially over the North and West.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the main arm and core of the flow remaining well to the North of the UK for the time being before it sinks a long way South over the Atlantic and then returns NNE across Northern and Western Britain next week. Then later in the period it becomes very variable and broken with no definitive pattern shown.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today has it's main message being a long delay in breaking down the current fine weather from Central and South-Eastern areas next week. Instead these areas can expect fine weather persisting for much of next week and it will feel warm in the gentle SSW winds. There will be rain at times in the North and West as Low pressure over the Atlantic edges in. It's not until week 2 when the Atlantic breaks through to all areas bringing some rain for all just for a time followed by a large drop in temperatures with a strong ENE flow over the South and a large and chilly High pressure area developing close to the North where frost and fog would become widespread at the end of the period

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is similar in structure with a breakdown across the West from Monday. This run also holds fine weather over the East until later next week when a trough crosses East through all areas with some rain. Temperatures then become cooler for all with the North and East still at risk of rain at times before High pressure nudges in from the West to lower temperatures to below average late in the period with some showery rain in a chilly NNE breeze to the SE while all other areas see dry and chilly weather with frost at night and also some mist and fog patches.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show a 65/35% split in favour of a High pressure based situation likely for the UK in 14 days. General consensus places it either to the SW or West extending a ridge across the UK. The 35% showing unsettled weather has Low pressure to the NW and West driving things with SW winds and rain at times for most.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today has also backtracked somewhat in the extent of any loss of pressure across the UK resulting in rainfall as any rain bearing systems look like only affecting the far West and NW early next week while the South and East while more cloudy than of late stays mostly dry and quite mild.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure declining slowly over the next 5 days but maintaining a ridge for the most parts across the UK sustaining fine and dry weather for the bulk of the UK with some warm sunshine.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows a much more volatile pattern commencing from very early next week. While High pressure and fine weather lasts until then the weather deteriorates into a wet and windy pattern next week as Low pressure makes far more progress across UK air space next week. Some very windy weather is shown at times too with near average temperatures. Some brighter intervals are shown for a time late in the run before renewed Low pressure reaches the SW at Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning is a sort of halfway house between GEM and GFS with the West and NW certainly seeing rain at times next week, some heavy while the East and SE sees only small amounts of rain and longer dry and bright periods when it will feel quite warm in the SSW breeze

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning has the High pressure declining from this weekend with fine weather holding on for most through the weekend before troughs swing NE across all areas with some rain for a time early next week. Following a cold front East midweek pressure rises to the South and more especially the East late next week warding off Low pressure out into the Atlantic with warm South or SE winds and dry weather affecting most of the UK to end the period

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to promote Low pressure to the NW and a moist, mild and in places unstable SW airflow across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have backtracked markedly today limiting the extent and depth of any unsettled weather across the UK and certainly the East.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead of UKMO at 99.5 pts to 99.4 with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 96.7 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days UKMO ties with ECM at 86.9 pts then GFS at 84.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.8 pts over GFS's 54.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM just leads GFS at 35.2 pts to 34.6 pts from GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS There seems to of been a major swing backwards from the models over the last 24 hours towards less of a breakdown likely next week across the UK especially if you live in the East and SE. There is still two or three days of the current pattern remaining with plenty of warm sunshine by day and cool misty nights and the breezy Easterly across the South should fade away from tomorrow on. Over the weekend the noticeable difference is likely to be the amounts of cloud which will increase for all and even a shower is possible in the SE. Then next week shows troughs ganging up to the West but the progress east into the UK is unsure and varied model to model. GEM is the most extreme with all areas becoming very unsettled, wet and windy but that is the extreme with much more of the output limiting the eastern extent of such troughs to the west and NW with other areas seeing a lot of fine and warm weather in balmy SSW winds. ECM does seem to show rain for all early next week albeit briefly with the same warm Southerly flow occurring later in the period of it's output. So overall things don't look as bad as they did a few days ago and this seems to be caused by the Jet stream which is now shown to make less progress South than was shown a while back and in addition pressure is shown to be lower over the Arctic and Greenland region next week which keeps Low pressure further to the North and West than would otherwise be. So in Summary the weather though turning a little more changeable next week with a little rain at times away from the far West and NW amounts shouldn't be bothersome with plenty of fine weather in between. Temperatures should see October bucking the trend of recent months as it looks like starting rather warmer then average especially by night in the SSW flow expected and while there are some colder options shown later in the period notably from the GFS camp there is nothing to suggest any widespread frosts, fogs or gales as yet this season.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1681.gif

The accolade of the worst chart of the day today goes to the GEM Model with it's 168hr chart showing a deep couple of Low pressure areas over the North of the UK with widespread gales and spells of heavy rain for all.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm241.gif

The best chart of the day comes as no surprise as being one close to the present as that is the only time when widespread fine weather looks likely from today's output. I have selected the ECM 24hr chart which shows High pressure orientated nicely across the UK blocking all attacks from Low pressure at that time from affecting the UK.

Next update from 09:00 Thursday Oct 1st 2015

The wonderful outlook looks like being largely maintained. Scandi High is king this morning with any atlantic incursion next week very brief. 

Warm start cold finish..   Will it bring down S##W...... ????

I have included links to UK and Northern Hemisphere current snow lying charts on my website analysis from today. Should be on here from tomorrow on. Just thought it would give added interest through the Winter season.

An Indian summer!

Warm, dry October and what it means for winter

A warm, dry start to October and a cold finish would be my bet.

well simon keeling must be confident in his long range forecast for October / novmber which states dry start to October and from mid October onward wet and windy and November looks bad according to his summary. stormy,  tho been some back tracking this morning from the charts from yesterday, next week looks ok, and not as bad as it stated yesterday .

Those sea temp maps don't work. :/

Also your northern hemisphere map is showing the Europe quarter of the northern hemisphere rather then the actual northern hemisphere 😕

I'll throw my bet out there. It'll be the same as everyone else, experts and amateurs in that I have no idea. 

I'll base mine on the percentage favourite. It'll be a mild winter and largely snowless winter for the vast majority of lowland England  

Don't forget OPI

A mild winter would suggest warmer than average temperatures though.

My bet for the upcoming winter is that it might be cold, but at the same time, it might be mild. Or it might be average, like the winter just gone.

Either way, a steady progression to cooler weather is guaranteed over the next 5 months, but it will get warmer again come March.

Gavin P - great idea for a historical video?  Sounds like a truly amazing month!

MO wise ECM still rolling out at the time of writing but it does look like the breakdown is still on this morning but pressure always higher to the south and east so likely the further north you are the worse it will be. Still some rain for all parts though especially from the 5th onwards;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY OCT 1ST 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure remains slow moving across the British Isles with the fresh Easterly flow over Southern England decreasing.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK but amounts in NE Russia, Alaska, Greenland along with the mountains of Iceland is increasing now as one would expect.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly settled and fine at first but more unsettled and windy thereafter with rain or showers at times especially over the North and West.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the main arm and core of the flow remaining well to the North for a few more days before it troughs South a long way over the Atlantic and returns NE across the UK next week. It then becomes focused much further South than of late, often across the UK in the association with Low pressure close to the North and NW.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the current fine weather deteriorating over the weekend as more cloud develops across the UK. Then through next week a fresh South wind will send warm and moist air North over Britain with troughs edging East slowly. Heavy rain in the West will slowly transfer East over several days opening the door to a more mobile spell of Atlantic West to SW winds and rain at times and temperatures near average or a little below at times across the North later as cooler air feeds down from the NW for a time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run is fairly similar to the operational run with the theme of rain moving East over the UK early next week rather quicker with the theme of rain at times thereafter in a WSW flow and some drier intervals across the South at times. At the end of the period a deep Low pressure moves in across the UK with widespread gales and heavy rain as a result.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show a 65/35% split in favour of Low pressure in control across the UK in 14 days time in association with a trough either down over the UK from the NW or under an unstable and blustery WSW flow with rain at times, heaviest across the West and North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today has moved back towards a much more unsettled and windy period as it shows rain and windy weather moving slowly North and East across Southern and Western areas as early as Monday followed by further Low pressure troughs in association with deep Low pressure across the Eastern Atlantic later next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure declining slowly over the next 5 days with troughs ganging up over the Eastern Atlantic by Monday spreading more unsettled weather North and East across the UK from next Monday.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM also shows the fine weather moving away by early next week as a small Low moves across the South from the SW with rain for all and opening the door to an unstable but mild SW flow with further troughs delivering rain and showers at times for all but with some lengthy dry spells developing in the SE with higher pressure remaining ensconced across France.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning shows a short decline in conditions across England and Wales early next week as a trough swings NE and delivers rain for all followed by a blustery SSW wind. From then on rain becomes more and more restricted to the far NW again as pressure builds slowly across England and Wales next week in accompaniment of a warm SSW airflow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning has High pressure in it's present form declining at the weekend as a trough of Low pressure moves SW to NE across England and Wales with a spell of rain for all Monday into Tuesday. A ridge of High pressure midweek returns some fine conditions before the next troughs move similarly NE across the UK with some more rain Wednesday and into Thursday. Pressure then builds SW from rising pressure to the North and NE with a battleground scenario developing between troughs to the SW making only slow and erratic progress NE with rain most likely then across the South and West. Temperatures look largely close to average or a little above in the sun shines and in the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to promote Low pressure to the NW but has taken further to the NW reducing the effects of the rain at times SW'ly flow more concentrated towards the North and West rather than elsewhere

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models still show little consistency in the way conditions will unfold once the current High pressure declines and the trough early next week moves into the UK from the SW. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead of UKMO at 99.5 pts to 99.4 with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 96.7 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.1 pts to UKMO at 86.9 pts then GFS at 84.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.5 pts over GFS's 53.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS just leads ECM at 36.0 pts to 35.4 pts from GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The models remain focused on bringing an end to the recent fine and sunny weather as High pressure declines over the weekend and is replaced by a trough moving up from the SW on Monday. What is less clear is how the weather evolves from that point on with the majority show this feature opening the door to a lengthy period of SSW winds and rain at times focused chiefly towards the West and North but by no means exclusively. There is some deviation from this with rain becoming more focused to the NW as pressure builds from the SE ala ECM and NAVGEM. ECM too has it's own version of a non straightforward pattern setting up a build of pressure to the NE later which sets up a blocking pattern which hinders troughs to the SW from making much in the way of progress NE across the UK. GFS also has variability within a general similar theme between it's operational and Control Run focusing on a trend to push the worst of conditions up to the NW while the GFS Control Run shows a major storm system at the end of the period with rain and gales for all. So which one is right? Well I think the pattern will remain unresolved until late this weekend at the earliest when a clearer handle on the progress of more unsettled weather next week should be agreed better between the models. The only constant is that we are unlikely to see the largely cloudless skies of this week next week as cloud will often be a major player, rain or not. Temperatures on the other hand are expected to remain on the higher side of average if any SSW flow next week develops with night's especially being much warmer. However, with the exception of the deep Low shown by the GFS Control Run in the far reaches of the run there is again nothing too alarmist to worry about in the weather anywhere across the UK over the next 10-14 days with just modest mid Autumn conditions for the most part.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=360&mode=0&carte=0

The accolade of the worst chart of the day today goes to the GFS Control Run at 360hrs as it shows a major storm system across NW Britain with heavy rain and gales for all.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm241.gif

The best chart of the day illustrates how synoptics deteriorate over the coming period as the best chart I can fine this morning belongs to the ECM 24 hr chart with the current large High pressure area holding on across the UK continuing to ward off any rain bearing attacks from the Atlantic or elsewhere with warm uppers aloft and good temperatures at the surface by day

Next update from 09:00 Friday Oct 2nd 2015

Some real eye candy charts recently. From a coldie perspective lets hope the seeds are being sown early for synoptics to develop into this in the next few months.

Admittedly I thought we could be looking at one last burst of late summer weather yesterday, now I'm not so sure.

More of a cooler more unsettled outlook seems to be on the cards although with further changes.

ECM fi is interesting.

Stunning chart - a real 'if only it were January' set-up.

Trouble is, instead of "hope the seeds are being sown early for synoptics to develop into this in the next few months", it's more likely to be a case of "getting the great synoptics out of the way before winter starts"