well dont think its going south according to the weather where i am its looking ok bit wet and windy nothing major, and thursday onwards dry and sunny, so prob its going northwards,

A slow moving remnant low from a hurricane is a recipe for some mighty rainfall totals.

Joaquin, you've flooded enough places already, give it a rest.

ECM... how dare you 

GFS has a stonking FI tonight 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.gif

Not welcome now and thank god it's FI because they hopefully won't verify....wasting these perfect Synoptics now would be the ultimate in Sod's law!

Of course not. What I am getting at is in this country these sort of charts tend to come at the wrong time for anything interesting.

Northern blocking in summer with southerly tracking lows and whacking great Euro highs and moist southwesterlies in Winter.

Happens with regular monotony.

If charts like the 18z FI came in winter this place would be manic......until the inevitable backtracks and downgrades of course.

In a way yes, Northern blocking is a rare beast and is unlikely to persist for months on end so a blocked autumn is unlikely to be followed by a Northern blocking winter, 1992 and 1993 were classic examples of great Autumn Synoptics and crap winters to follow.

Andy

Yes I would tend to agree with you there Andy.

Big differences between MO and ECM at T+120/T+144 this morning. GFS favouring a more cyclonic pattern too into the latter part of weekend at least across the western half of the UK.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY OCT 6TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure areas and troughs will move NNE across the UK both today and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level near or just under 10000ft across the UK.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with a little rain at times but with some lengthy dry and settled periods developing again too especially later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a continuation of the flow to be split to the North and South of the UK for the remainder of the week. The flow becomes weak next week and generally maintains a stronger arm well to the North and a smaller cut off flow near the South of the UK as a small cut off depression lies close to Southern Britain.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the weather improving from the current unsettled spell as we move towards the end of the week as a ridge of High pressure crosses the UK from the West. The High pressure ridge then is shown to build strongly to the North and East of the UK as the remains of hurricane Joaquin move into the UK from the SW at the weekend, This could bring rain and strong winds across England and Wales from the weekend while Scotland could stay dry before the majority of the remainder of the run sees Low pressure remain close to the South of the UK with further rain at times in an Easterly breeze. Then at the very end of the period a ridge dries things up for most before Low pressure changes the weather again at the end of the period, this time for all with rain and strong winds at times as Low pressure sits across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run shows much less influence from ex hurricane Joaquin as it slips it South into Biscay with an easterly flow across the South the only effects likely from it. High pressure maintains a lot of dry weather across the UK for most of the run with only the far South gradually seeing a little rain at times as Low pressure edges into the South from the South later.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days has a unanimous theme of High pressure likely to lie close to the SW of the UK with varying degrees of influence across the UK mostly supporting a lot of dry and fine weather with any rainfall largely concentrated towards the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO UKMO today shows a ridge of High pressure developing over the UK for a time later this week before the remains of ex hurricane Joaquin moves first towards the NW of the UK then down across us by Day 6 gradually turning the weather unsettled with some rain at times for all and with some brisk winds for a time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning shows High pressure developing to the NE of the UK extending a ridge across the UK towards the end of the week as the remains of ex hurricane Joaquin approaches the Western sea areas at the weekend but holding far enough away to have little impact for the UK on this run.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM also builds High pressure back across the UK from the North-east later this week with some fine and settled weather for many for a time. GEM is less supportive of keeping the ex hurricane at bay as it moves it in across the UK at the weekend with wind and rain for many. The theme then for next week is a slow return to drier conditions to edge down from the North though it takes a long time to reach the SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows Low pressure moving to the South of the UK late this week and over the weekend with a stiffening Easterly breeze as High pressure builds to the North of the UK. This pattern is then maintained well into the start of next week with a lot of dry and chilly weather with any rain only likely in the extreme South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning has the building High pressure later this week winning the day as the ex tropical feature fades into obscurity moving harmlessly to the South and NW of the UK. High pressure then builds across the UK next week before a fall of pressure from the NW threatens some rain and fresher West winds right at the end of the period though rain amounts looks small in the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night indicates the UK lying between High pressure both to the SW and NE with the weather likely to be mostly quite benign across the British Isles but with some rain at times towards the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is still good agreement now on a largely fine and benign spell of weather developing again across the UK from later this week once the demise and final resting place of ex hurricane Joaquin is established. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM tying with UKMO at 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.0 pts to UKMO's 96.8pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.6 pts to UKMO at 86.8 pts then GFS at 83.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.5 pts over GFS's 51.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 35.7 pts to 33.7 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

MY THOUGHTS The models are still struggling with the track of ex hurricane Joaquín and subsequent effects such movements could have on the weather across the UK come the weekend. In the meantime the current mild and showery weather will move away East tomorrow with dry, bright but cooler weather developing later this week. As all this unfolds pressure will be building from the NE and winds switch towards an Easterly across the South. While the bias is still towards the weather staying dry over the weekend some output does show Joaquin moving into the UK airspace with some rain from it affecting the UK at least for a time. The final coming together of the models should occur over the coming days with the most likely weather next week becoming dry and bright but rather chilly in an Easterly breeze. The North will probably see lighter winds with cold nights with frost and fog patches likely but this all of course hinges on the fact that our ex tropical feature Joaquin does keep out of UK air space. Given the time of year the models could look a whole lot worse and given also that an ex tropical feature is in the mix it looks unlikely that there will be anything significantly bad weather-wise in the coming two weeks.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1441.gif 

The worst and best chart of the day highlight the differences in the 4-6 day range in possibilities of weather across the UK with the worst chart going to the GEM 144hr chart which shows the remains of ex-hurricane Joaquin over Ireland with wind and unsettled rainy weather likely for all

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif 

Contrastingly, and at the same time point ECM shows a stark difference to GEM and UKMO as by that time all trace of ex-hurricane Joaquin has vanished with a belt of High pressure across the UK giving rise to settled and fine weather with chilly air and frost and fog patches at night.

Next update from 09:00 Wednesday Oct 7th 2015

Thank you Martin.  Troughs will keep the frost away but bound to be with us at the end of 10days.

Thanks Gibby. 

Tomasz Schafernaker last night was quite categoric in stating that the path of Joaquin would not cross the UK. I suspect he wishes he hadn't said that now. 

indeed Steve ecm stamps look a mess at t120

This system is a nightmare to pin down, LOL!

Let's hope this doesn't turn out to be his Michael Fish type moment.

The 12Z GFS run suggests ex-Joaquin will hit Ireland and bounce south off the block before dissipating. Could get breezy in NI for a time.

ECM appears to keep its track further south into Europe with no direct impact on the UK.

Meanwhile, further north, there are signs of the polar vortex regathering and northern blocking dissipating...

Things are looking predominantly dry for many for a week after the clearance of todays early showers. There remains the possibility of a showery easterly developing in the south from the remnants of Joaquin in 7 days but for now high pressure has won this battle in the UK with a bright, breezy pleasant weekend in store. There is a risk of early frost and fog towards Northern England and Scotland closer to the centre of high pressure where winds will be light. 

well so it looks like back to HP for some several days AGAIN looking rather settled and dry, never gives up this HP. be gald when some decent weather worth watching comes along,

For those interested here's today's report link:-

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Settled and dry but cooler looking at the BEEB local forecast.....

Thank you Martin for your output. I like the blue print.  Much kinder to my eyesight..  

Ian, being careful what you wish for has NO effect on our weather or its outcomes.

Thank you Martin I need a long HP run to dry up the ground.