HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY OCT 8TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will lie across the UK over today and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level at just under 5200ft in the far West and NW and close to 8200ft in Eastern England.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming mostly fine and settled with frost and fog patches at night. Perhaps more unsettled and colder later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the southern arm of the currently split flow dissolving over the coming days as the Northern arm strengthens somewhat up to the NW and blows NE to the NW of Scotland. then later in the flow part of the flow dives South across the UK at times as Low pressure to the NE diverts it at times.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the weather being influenced by High pressure to the East across the UK over the next week as a ridge extends West from it across northern areas with a chilly east flow across the South. Very little if any rain is likely and Week 2 looks pretty good too as High pressure influence transfers to coming from the West of the UK maintaining a ridge across us. Winds then settle to come from the North late in the period with a cold Northerly blast bringing some wintry showers towards the North and East at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run shows much High pressure dominance across the UK throughout the run. This comes in the shape of a ridge lying across the UK for the next week with the Easterly flow across the South just unstable enough for a time to give the risk of a few showers towards the SE. Then in Week 2 High pressure develops right across the UK with much fine and settled weather for all though with the twin hazards of fog and frost almost anywhere likely through Week 2, slow to clear in places

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days has maintained a majority bias towards High pressure lying close to or to the West and SW of the UK with fine weather for many though there are more options this morning with more of an Atlantic based period by that time with some rain at times on a Westerly wind especially over the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure stretching West from an European High pressure, lying across the UK from the East into next week and giving rise to fine and dry weather for many with frost and fog at night in the North but with a chilly Easterly flow maintained across the South making daytime weather feel cool but allowing an avoidance of much in the way of frost and fog here by night.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning illustrate domination of a High pressure block to the East and NE maintaining a ridge West across the UK keeping any cloud and rain bearing weather systems well away from most of the UK, well to the West, NW and South.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM has High pressure ridged over the UK from the East over the next week with fine and settled weather for all areas. On this run there is less strength to the Easterly flow in the South as the axis of the ridge is more to the South than some other output. This means the far North could see a little rain especially late in the run when an attack from the North brings cloud and rain and cold weather South to most areas towards Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows the theme of the rest with dry and fine weather developing from today with High pressure slow moving across the North of the UK either in the shape of a ridge or under a cell of High pressure itself with fine and dry weather for all with a keen East breeze in the South and frost and fog night and morning over the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning is broadly similar to the rest of the output until later in the period when a hiatus in the fine weather could develop later next week as a trough bisects High pressure East and West of the UK with some rain for a time with an attack from the North introducing a change in weather type at or soon after the termination of the run for most of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night indicates the UK lying in slack pressure between High pressure both to the SW and NE and Low pressure to the NW and to a lesser extent to the SE with the weather likely to be mostly quite benign across the British Isles but with some rain at times towards the North and West and perhaps a shower or two elsewhere.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is very good agreement on fine and settled weather for the UK under a ridge for most of not all of next week with any distant changes looking most likely to come from the North somewhen in Week 2.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM tying with UKMO at 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.1 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.9 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.8 pts to UKMO at 87.0 pts then GFS at 83.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.6 pts over GFS's 50.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 35.4 pts to 32.0 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The weather looks like becoming set fair across the UK over the next week or so at least and maybe longer. Any remaining showers left over as a legacy to the recent unsettled period will finally decay by tomorrow with High pressure building across the UK from the East and delivering bundles of fine and bright weather for all areas. As usual this means sunny spells by day but those same clearer spells by night will likely give rise to plenty of frost and fog patches by night in the North. There looks likely to be slightly different conditions in the South as an Easterly flow looks likely to develop restricting any frost and fog patches to places with good shelter but also making it feel chilly by day in exposure. This general weather pattern looks likely to persists for most if not all of next week before some output, namely GEM, GFS and ECM all point towards the North for what may be a pattern shift away from High pressure to something more unsettled and possibly cold as winds look like they could turn Northerly later. In the meantime we should all be able to enjoy a protracted spell of fine and settled weather with very little in the way of rain, some sunny spells with some frost and fog patches at night, a chilly east wind in the South and perhaps a shift towards something more unsettled and chilly much later in the second week.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

I have chosen to show another GEM 10 Day chart as the worst chart of the day as it highlights my above text summary in bringing Low pressure down from the North in 10 days or so bringing an end to the fine weather as cloud, wind, rain and potentially cold weather moves down across all areas at that time, but will it happen?

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

The best chart today goes to GFS in it's operational run at Day 6 which shows High pressure stretched across the UK and nearby NW Europe with fine and settled Autumn weather continuing for some time from this point for the UK.

Next update from 09:00 Friday Oct 8th 2015

Gibby, out of interest, have you decided what parameters constitute "best" and "worst" for the winter charts? For example, if one chart shows a howling countrywide blizzard whilst another shows settled anticyclonic gloom, which would fall into what category?

Thank you Martin.  Looks a chilly spell will soon bear down on us.

Given current synoptics and those forecast for the next few days, this thread would be in meltdown if we were in the second half of December or in January.

Well, never mind, I expect the Atlantic conveyor will get going in time to ruin our winter prospects.

The blocking would be welcome in winter but I daresay that the wind flow would still disappoint many.  If blocked charts are still in the charts in December then things could get busy.

Impressive ecm cold just to our east and south east very cool looking chart for mid October

Moscow has snow cover today which is apparently early even by their standards

Yep if only it was Winter on the ECM 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015100812/ECM1-168.GIF?08-0 

Rather busy again this morning I'm afraid so if someone would like to copy and paste from my website that will be fine otherwise here's a link.

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

What sort of daytime temperatures are we looking at if that verified.

The reason I posted the other link is because it shows the anomaly rather than just the actual daily data. The graphics are better on the one you posted but it doesn't highlight the "compared with normal" situation - which shows, as you suggest, there is greater than average snow cover over and to the west of the Urals.

The colder than average conditions in the Moscow region show up very well on the t850hPa GFS ensemble charts http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Moskau_ens.png 

just seen this so apologies for not replying sooner. In answer to your question the categorisation would be the way the layman on the street would see it, not us enthusiasts so in that instance the raging blizzard chart would be 'worst' while anticyclone gloom would be best as it would be least likely to affect the working lives of people.

One word can best describe the outlook this morning...DRY ! 

When was the last time we had a dry October? They must be as rare as hen's teeth. Can't help feeling we're in for another washout winter of endless Atlantic conveyor belt of storms: yuck!

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY OCT 11TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will remain anchored across the UK from a High pressure area to the east. Troughs will affect the far NW over the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level ranging from 6500ft across the North and just over 8000ft aross Southern England. Over Europe snow cover is quite extensive now across NW and Northern Russia.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming mostly fine and settled with frost and fog patches at night and only very small chances of rain at times. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow becoming established well to the NW of the British Isles over the next 10 days or so before returning South sharply towards the end of the period across the UK or possibly even to the South by the end of the forecast period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the weather totally influenced by High pressure firstly positioned to the East of the UK and then more intensely to the West from later this week. This will ensure an East or NE flow for most backing Northerly later ensuring rather chilly but dry weather for nearly all apart from a little rain in the NW at first and a shower in the SE early this week. Low pressure is shown to finally breakthrough the High pressure block from the North at the end of the run with chilly and wetter conditions extending to all parts by Day 14.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run is almost a replica of the operational run with the added caveat that the breakdown show from the operational run at the end of the two week period is not supported with High pressure remaining anchored across the UK at that time too with fine, settled and often rather cool and potentially cloudy conditions as a result in what will be a sustained period of benign weather conditions overall.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days seem to endorse a 70/30 split in favour of High pressure holding on in some shape or form across or near the UK with just a 30% group supporting anything that would mean much in the way of wind, rain or showers in any meaningful form across the UK especially the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows the only difference from recent output in as much as it does inch Low pressure over Europe rather closer to the SE at times through the week threatening a few showers and quite a lot of cloud at times while the vast majority of the UK sees variable cloud and some sunshine but cool conditions with some frost, fog and frost by night away from the breezier South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning support the slight changes of the risk of showers in the SE in an otherwise High pressure based outlook with fine and benign mid Autumn weather for most with areas of cloud and some weak sunshine mixed in along with patchy frost and fog by night, this mostly in the North.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today also shows a variation of High pressure in control of the weather across the UK for the next 10 days. However as the centre transfers to a point to the West of the UK and pressure remains lower over Europe a chill NE wind persists across the South with the added risk of a shower enhanced later by a cold surge of air from the North so that next weekend and the start of the second week could be noticeably windy and cold across the South with a strong NE wind and showers possible more widely for a time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today follows the same route of High pressure dominance for all parts as a ridge across the UK is focused to extend from a strong High in the Atlantic later this week maintaining the best conditions for the NW while a chill NE wind over the South is all too persistent with the risk of a shower at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning finalises the set in maintaining High pressure close to the UK for the foreseeable future gradually anchoring to the West of the UK keeping dry and fine weather for most areas in rather chilly conditions overall. Sunshine amounts and the best weather overall will be focused towards the West and NW while the South and SE could see cloud and breeze temper conditions somewhat and late in the period all parts could be seeing the birth of an eventual and very chilly Northerly as High pressure shows signs of changing it's orientation as well as moving NW somewhat towards Greenland at the end of the period opening the door for a cold northerly blast especially for the East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows High pressure well in control of the weather across all of the UK most likely centred just to the West of Ireland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is very good agreement on fine and settled weather maintained across the UK for the entire period with just small scale features affecting the day to day conditions across the surface in an overall very dry outlook.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leading UKMO at 99.6 pts to 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.3 pts to UKMO at 87.7 pts then GFS at 85.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.1 pts over GFS's 50.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 34.9 pts to 29.1 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS If today's output is to be realised then we are looking at a very dry October across the UK as there looks unlikely to be very little if any significant rainfall across the UK for the next couple of weeks at least, a theme shared by all output. It's High pressure that's the culprit with the current ridge lying across the UK from Europe intensifying in response to amid latitude block forming over the eastern Atlantic later this week. Once established these can be notoriously stubborn to shift and this one looks no exception with the Jet Stream held well to the North the only way that any incursion of Low pressure can realistically gain entry to the UK is from the North which is hinted at by ECM at Day 10 and from GFS too but due to the close proximity of the High to the West that looks unlikely to happen at any point soon. Pressure is shown to be relatively lower over SE Europe and there is just enough reason to mention the chance of the odd shower from this in the South and East for a time this week but this looks the exception to the overall dry pattern expected. The three factors which will most certainly change the perception of the fine and dry theme is the amounts of cloud floating around along with the likelihood of frost and fog where skies clear at night and in the South a nagging and cool breeze from the NE. All this is of course only small features in an otherwise settled and quiet period of weather across the UK and in the grand scheme of things maintains our generally gentle and benign drift through Autumn so far this year with a continuation of little chance of gales and troublesome weather of any kind looking likely any time soon.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

For the worse chart of the day I have had to travel right out to 384hrs from GFS and this is the only chart of all that I could find any meaningful excursion into bad weather across the UK as it shows fallen pressure across Britain with the Jet stream having travelled to a point well South of the UK bringing what would be rain and cold conditions across the UK in blustery Westerly winds in a complete pattern change.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

The best chart today goes to UKMO at 144hrs but to be honest there are many more than could of qualified. The reason for choosing this one is not for the overall best conditions at the surface at that particular time but for the reason that from this set-up changes in the overall weather pattern is likely to be a long way off with a large blocking mid latitude High of this nature close to the UK.

Next update from 09:00 Monday Oct 12th 2015

thanks for your output gibby, dry October well simon keelings October forecast goes out he window then we are ment to be in a wet and windy period right now, goes to show how things change, I don't think that we are in for a wet and mild winter myself might look like that now,  but will it still look the same in 4-6 weeks time, time will tell. thanks for your post