Hi all,

Here's Terry Scholey's mid October to mid November forecast;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html  

Soggy fireworks this Bonfire night? 

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thanks terry, great forecast as always, a bit of cold bit of wind and rain for bonfire night just how it should be, thanks for posting gavin, always a pleasure to read terrys forecast,  thanks guys

 

Cheers Gav

 

Sizzle , I should add a great forecast is only applicable if its correct.....................isnt it?

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Until TS thinks our chances of a colder than average winter have increased I'll keep my feet firmly planted on terra nova. The initial signs look promising but then again don't they always, I think by the law of averages we're due a colder than average November but that old adage of November Ice and ducks  springs to mind.

indeed, tho I should add that terrys forecast is  very much acceptable, this is why terry does a mid month update on his thoughts on the 15th, as well as a 1st of the month forecast, I ve never seen terry bang out a 3 month forecast unlike some forecasters,

terry gavin and MR BRIAN are the only forecasters I really take notice of, as none of them go all out on silly forecasting, IE 3months ahead.

I also must add simon keeling got his October forecast wrong thus why he has now pulled it from his site, keep it with in the 2 week time frame at the MAXIUM, this is what I like about terry scholey he does a monthly forecast on the 1st, and re-visits on the 15th to adjust from mid month to mid month,   

 

Thanks Gavin for the TS Outlook.   Cold to colder is OK by me.

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Just to let people know if you didn't already. Gav and I did another livestream and looked at  winter 2016

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cxD4PVeouU

The TLDR version is that, both of us agreed that a colder 2nd half is more likely, and that the 1st half in particular will probably be quite zonal although probably still cold zonal with very good chance of snowfall in the NW due to the 'cold blob' over the atlantic and winds seemingly in the W/NW sector quite a lot. Probably not a severe winter though, possibly coming out as average if not slightly above.

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Im not so sure we will have a colder second half as that's what you would tend to expect with a strong Nino but this time around we have a switch in the AMO ( may well be temporary for now )  and that + height anomaly of the NW Pacific  has decreased significantly compared to the last few winters. Personally I feel we'll see  a colder than average start to the winter followed by the last third of winter coming in above average.