Hi all,

Here's the week ahead forecast video;

gavsweathervids.com

Here's the written Thoughts;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html

High pressure holding on...

Forgot to mention it (I think Q has already done it in another thread) but myself and Quantum went "Live" last night to discuss the models, long range forecasting, El Nino and Winter 15/16/

You can hear it here; http://www.gavsweathervids.com/live-weather-broadcasts.php

I'll have the CFS SIx Month Look-Ahead (JFF) later this afternoon and then tomorrow it's the sixth Winter 15/16 update.

Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and the Mods for making it happen.

Edit: Here;s the sixtrh Winter 15/16 Update: http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Cheers Gav

I sat and listened this morning to your discussion with Q ( cherry picked parts ) clearly pinning down specifics for this winter is going to be hard

great thoughts there gavin, live was EXCELLENT  last night, HP so so stubborn it never goes away and when it does back it comes again  cheers buddy

Cheers GP. Does feel like I'm already spending all my north-east winds quota for this winter!

Thanks Gavin. Shall enjoy the changes.

^^^^^^

Thanks guys!

Here's the sixth Winter 2015/16 update looking at SST's, El Nino, Siberian snow cover, etc...

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/  

#Enjoy

Will post this to the winter forecasts page with a written summary later for anybody that can't watch the video.

Cheers Gav , another good video

Interesting update on the Chorley web site.

Very highly rated

Have added the sixth Winter 2015/16 update to winter updates page;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2015-16-forecast-uk.php

Also a written summary if you can't watch the video.

great winter update there good work, 6 weeks winter officially starts  liking the new STAR WARS POSTER  on TWITTER. got a feeling it going to be a good one with the old cast in it too. MTFBWY   thanks GAVIN SKYWALKER OF THE FORCE

Thanks Gavin. Very interesting as ever.

We don't have much data to go on in terms of years with a strong El Nino and a westerly QBO. There have been 3 since 1950 and a mixed bag they were in terms of winter temperature.

1957-8 saw December and January cooler than average and February slightly above average. Nothing significantly cold though.

1982-3 saw a cool December and a very cold February with an exceptionally mild January. So something for everyone there.

1987-8 saw an average December and then quite mild conditions for the rest of winter.

So that doesn't help at all in giving clues as to what we might see this year. But of course the other variables affecting winter weather need to be considered as well as the QBO. As we saw last year the QBO on its own appears to be of little significance. We had a record easterly QBO last year but temperatures were generally around average.

LOL! Thanks Sizzle. 

Cheers GW. As you say a real "Mixed bag" of years there. 

1958 did turn very cold in March - 1983 as well as having a cold February was pretty cold through Spring as well... And even 1988 had a fairly chill April I think?

Colder later, is something that's coming out in many analogues at the moment.

On another matter, here's Terry's week ahead forecast: 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey-seven-day-forecast.php

Thank you Gavin. for the TS Cast.... Cooler nights to come now...

^^^^

Hi SC,

In yesterday sixth update (link posted up the page) we looked at 1905 and 1930 - Winters 1905/1906 and 1930/1931 both had colder weather later.

But is it true that analogues this year are VERY hard to find this year. 2015 really is a "one off" in many ways.

I really think we're going to see the polar opposite and have a colder than average start  for the first half of the winter followed by above average temps thereafter. Of course I could have no idea what I'm on about.