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Frostbite80
26 October 2015 09:35:09

AO set to go strongly positive for the first time in months http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml


NAO not far behind either http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Gusty
26 October 2015 10:05:36


While the trick is not to take the 240 hrs medium range outputs at face value, I have never seen such unanimous agreement at that time frame in the latest batch of runs. In this case, they are all mostly showing high pressure to be the dominant force at around the 5th Nov, that would suggest odds on favourite for Guy Fawkes night to turn out dry, mild and settled - at least for this end of the country.

Like I said, it is just something I've noticed this morning. Doubtless it'll all look different by the end of today.


Originally Posted by: idj20 



We have defo been spared the atlantic this autumn. Long may it continue.


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Jiries
26 October 2015 10:43:12


 



We have defo been spared the atlantic this autumn. Long may it continue.


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Originally Posted by: Gusty 


It a shame it didn't happen on prime summer months which was badly needed during that time to tap in the Euro extreme heat.  At least it staying dry and the longer this continue the better is to waste further time on this worst time of the year is Late Autumn and Winter.

The Beast from the East
26 October 2015 11:52:04

An utter yawn fest, as has been the case all year apart from those storms in August


Hopefully we are building up "credit" for a good Winter!


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Chunky Pea
26 October 2015 11:55:05


An utter yawn fest, as has been the case all year apart from those storms in August


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


Has to be the most boring year for weather ever!


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Osprey
26 October 2015 14:57:35


 


 


Has to be the most boring year for weather ever!


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Rough with the smooth


2013/2014 very stormy rough!


2015 Smooth > 2016??


 


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Charmhills
26 October 2015 16:52:32


 


 


Has to be the most boring year for weather ever!


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Hasn't it just.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
idj20
26 October 2015 17:31:06


 


Hasn't it just.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 



Funny how the hottest July's day on record achieved on the 1st day of July had quickly got forgotten. Although to be fair, it was a blink-and-you'd-miss-it event and even then it was very much a south east thing.

Anyway, back on topic, the trend for a settled first week of November is still there going by the latest batch of model runs, but I'm sure ECM will come along to muddy the water.


Folkestone Harbour. 
Polar Low
26 October 2015 18:03:51

almost prefect to give that record a good run cant rule out very high teens or 20 c I would have thought imo just a little more ss/e


would need a fair bit of sunshine thou


 


Charmhills
26 October 2015 18:10:12


Get the BBQs out!


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
26 October 2015 18:14:23


Has to be the most boring year for weather ever!


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


I am often reading that we must learn to adapt to more extreme weather. Perhaps that includes more extremely boring weather.


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Polar Low
26 October 2015 18:14:27

Think we add on a couple on very warm indeed


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

sizzle
26 October 2015 18:18:53

yep defo looking mild, but if we got these temps in December onwards that would GREEN ME OUT, long as bonfire night is wet windy misty/foggy that's how it should be and that would be great. still 5 weeks till winter starts

Essan
26 October 2015 18:20:51


yep defo looking mild, but if we got these temps in December onwards that would GREEN ME OUT, long as bonfire night is wet windy misty/foggy that's how it should be and that would be great. still 5 weeks till winter starts


Originally Posted by: sizzle 



They said that this time last year and the year before, and look what happened  .......


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
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Hungry Tiger
26 October 2015 20:46:35

I wonder what sort of November we're in for.


 


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Stormchaser
26 October 2015 22:25:42
Phew, that powerful Euro high being modelled for 5-7 days time is a good fit for the alternative term 'anticyclone' as it sports a strong clockwise circulation capable of bringing up some unseasonably warm air for the time of year with the minimum of modification.

One to watch, though - rather unusually - ECM makes less of the high than GFS and UKMO and so is less effective with the warm air import.
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Ally Pally Snowman
27 October 2015 08:33:38

Looks like being above average all the way to mid November. Not much point getting perfect cold set this time of year anyway as its to early. Late November is the earliest you can get proper snow in this country and even that is as rare as hen's teeth. In fact I can only remember it happening once and that was in 2010.


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
David M Porter
27 October 2015 09:25:31

Looks as though HP may mske a comeback next week if this morning's runs are anything to go by.


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Rob K
27 October 2015 10:43:00


Late November is the earliest you can get proper snow in this country and even that is as rare as hen's teeth. In fact I can only remember it happening once and that was in 2010.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


cough October 2008. 


 



 


2008 was pretty amazing - lying snow in April and again in October.


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Ally Pally Snowman
27 October 2015 11:31:27


 


cough October 2008. 


 



 


2008 was pretty amazing - lying snow in April and again in October.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


I'd forgotten about that one even got a covering in North London. Apart from that and November 2010 I can't recall lying snow before December . I'm 36 so remember the 80s and don't ever recall it even then I'm a Southener though so maybe different further North.


 


 


 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
springsunshine
27 October 2015 15:28:25



Get the BBQs out!


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Why oh why couldn`t we have had this set up from May to Sept


Still as all the summer months were below average sods law says the above set up will be the default for the next 5months and winter will be well above average

doctormog
27 October 2015 19:11:17


 


cough October 2008. 


 



 


2008 was pretty amazing - lying snow in April and again in October.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Indeed Rob. In fact I was commenting to one of my colleagues at work yesterday that this day three years ago (26th Oct 2012) there was snow on the ground here. Looking at the current output it seems there may be a few weeks to wait before we see any this season.


Nordic Snowman
27 October 2015 19:19:02

Just to echo the above in that the current output is showing H.P in the wrong place and with it, unusually mild weather across much of NW Europe. Looks like remaining that way for the next couple of weeks too.


 


Bore fest continues. In fact, the most boring October EVER imo (for here). Zzzzzzzz.


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Sevendust
27 October 2015 19:44:45


Just to echo the above in that the current output is showing H.P in the wrong place and with it, unusually mild weather across much of NW Europe. Looks like remaining that way for the next couple of weeks too.


 


Bore fest continues. In fact, the most boring October EVER imo (for here). Zzzzzzzz.


Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


However, better to get this in autumn than in winter. For this location even cold synoptics usually deliver sod all until late November so it can change then!

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