Very funny GFS - showing me a totally ruined polar vortex late in your 00z op run output:

It's kind of amusing to see how GFS has a battle of the HLBs versus the 'Euroslug' in the above chart.

Meanwhile the blocking to the NW is driving some impressive wave breaking into Canada/Greenland which would have interesting impacts on the strat. later in time.

There's not a bad attempt at strat. warming already crossing the Pacific days 11-16, so this run is making some bold suggestions. BUT it's just one run from one model (though the 18z wasn't far away...) so all I'm doing is speculating for the sake of speculating 

 

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Yes, I'm with Mike on this one. I'm expecting an atlantic breakthrough by mid month. The background signals cannot be ignored. What also cannot be ignored is the background signal for a colder and more polar originated airmass in the second half of winter. This is based on previous experience of other El Nino's. We shall see. 

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After a very mild and mostly dry weekend, it turns more unsettled to some degree next week, ECM 00z, GFS 00z and Met/o 00z with some rain at times though still mild with winds from a S/SW flow.

The far SE could stay dry though.

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Indeed, as much as it pains me to say it, something will have to give way sooner or later. It would be silly of me to think it'll stay this benign all throughout the winter as we do get to experience at least one or two significant storm systems pass close by us on average most winters. That's the joys of being in the firing line of the jet stream - and if we do actually go onto "enjoying" a good run of decent wintry spells involving snow and ice, then that would be a bonus. Just that the Winter of 2014 was too much too soon for me what with the relentless stormy winds and rain (although when it did settle down at times, it did feel pleasant for it as it remained mild but had to be careful not to miss it by blinking too much).
 
But for now, the medium range outlook appears to be still looking benign at least for this neck of the woods. Gone are the days when I used to rub my hands in glee at any idea of exciting stormy weather to "liven things up a bit".

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Blimey Marcus. Even by your optimistic standards that is very optimistic. Haha. JFF as you say.  😆

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Let's hope so but it is making a poor attempt at is so far.

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I remember reading somewhere a while ago that the El Nino winter of 1982/83 was mild for the first couple of months, but ended with a sting in its tail and a much colder February. In fact I think February 1983 recorded a CET of 1.7, compared to the 6.7 that was recorded that January.

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Early eighties certainly, so yes, my feelings too.

 

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I wonder though was that just more the way it panned out rather than being influenced by El Nino? From what I know of the Winter of 1946/1947, it was pretty mild up to the end of January which then turned into a monster during the following February. Yet this happened when Nino conditions were relatively neutral (tending towards La Nina). The other famous winter of 1962/1963 also occured without any hint of El Nino in place with the NINO index at the time, and similar to the 46/47 winter, being negatively neutral. To be honest, I think there is a lot of hype regarding El Nino and its effects on Winters on this side of the world that have no real basis in fact.

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i remember this winter well, December was cold until mid month them mild and the mild weather lasted until the 29th January when the weather flipped and a week of cold north easterly winds and heavy snow showers was followed by a cold but dry February.

Not a great winter but I have known a lot worse!

Retron might remember the blizzards that swept through Kent in early February from convective showers on a strong north easterly flow, even in Birmingham (where I lived at the time) these resulted in blinding snow showers that turned day to night and brought traffic to a standstill, I haven't seen anything like it since.

Andy

 

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To be Honest I feel the same Patrick let alone the cooler than average sst in the mix I think imho nobody really knows what will unfold,

good points about past cold winters also

 

Hmm.

 

As we see via this link here:

http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/sst_plot.html?i=34&j=2

 

Crown Copyright Met Office.

Summer is not over yet.  We have 12-14 deg. C SST over our SW SE and South Of us in UK.

And way way up in side Arctic Circle are Cold SST's of 5-8 deg. C.

High Pressure Dominates in the Mid Latitudes with some SW and Southerly flows ushering very mild air into the Centres.

The Cold conditions are in running to the NW and NE of Europe avoiding Britain as well!.

My cursor moves a lot ahem.

We should hopefully see a change but my other half says the cold airmass has and is and looks like still often not within reach to us but long way away for at least 9 more days.

 

 

 

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It will be interesting to hear Darren's account of this event. From memory though this was a real SE Kent clipper event reserved mainly for Folkestone and Dover. It remains the holy grail of snow events with level snow here in Folkestone of around 45cm courtesy of convective snow showers from an initial streamer that fired up for 48 hours without ceasing.

West of Maidstone there was considerably less. We travelled to Aylesbury to watch my brother play football the following Saturday. The coach we travelled on pulled up in the car park at Aylesbury with a foot of snow still intact on the roof. The locals could not believe their eyes. All they had received was a brief 2cm covering that week. The pitch had nothing more than a slight dusting left and was perfectly playable. 

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Thats interesting, I didn't know it was so localised.

I remember the intense snow showers that day in Solihull to the SE of Birmingham it was a Thursday and the showers came in on a stiff bitter north easterly wind, blinding showers of fine drifting snow that reduced visibility to 100 meters and it went so dark all the automatic street lights came on. The showers didn't last long but each one left a 2-3cms and snow was 8cms deep by evening.

It's a shame we didn't have radar in them days.

Will be interesting to hear Retron's recollection.

Andy

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Waters around the UK are only +/- 0.5deg either side of normal for end Oct. 

For what it's worth I don't believe the moderate cold anomaly in the N Atlantic will have much effect if any on our weather this winter - and anyway it is impossible to isolate any such hypothesis from the myriad of other factors that may or may not also have an influence

 

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Steve, 45cms at Whitfield.  60 cms at Capel le Ferne.  You are right, it was the Holy Grail has yet to be repeated.

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The Polar Vortex at the Moment is only compounded and spread out east from the West and the Cold air North of the Families of Low Pressure waves across North Atlantic and Norwegian Sea, Iceland and NE Europe inc. Finland still on occasional spells of NW flow cold weather.

 

Much of last two winters and last 2 years Snow free for London.  Nothing is changing we will continue with Mild SW flows with North Atlantic to North Europe Norwegian Sea via Arctic Circumpolar Vortex, that is shoved away NW and NE at times by regular High Pressure Cells for West and Central Europe.

 

Nothing really good nor any frosts for SE England ahem, and we just see occasional spells of moderate heavy rain especially in the SW Central mid and The North and NE parts of our corner in NW Europe et all!.

 

The Western and Northern UK this winter maybe at some point for those there could get some colder and wintry weather at some stage during the course of winter period.

Enjoy plenty of dry and uninteresting weather for next 5 days, with a spell of rain later...

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ECM 8-10 day 12z ens:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html

Looks like a Bartlett for the foreseeable. I've not done any backtrawling, but I wonder how common Bartlett setups are during strong El Nino years? Logically I would think there's a strong link, even Strong +ENSO tend to bring mild winters to our shores.

I wouldn't bet on a hosepipe ban next summer at least!

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The model output looks pretty mundane at the moment, it has to be said.

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Could be in for a very cold and wintry March 2016 if this materialises but it's all JFF.:

Brisk raw easterly wind:

 Turning North-easterly a week later:

 

 

Can anyone remember the end of March 2013? This looks a familiar pattern and here is just a reminder of late March 2013: - Notice the similarities in both charts above and below (same date and month). Especially the positioning of the low pressure systems and HP blocking over Greenland! I remember sleet/snow flurries here in Exeter of End of March & soft hail showers and sleet into April. - London had a covering of snow back then as well. 

 

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Tally there is really no value in posting charts for March for a model that is recognised as changing around every run. You might as well post and discuss The Express garbage in the same context - it has almost as much chance of being correct at this range.
Don't torture yourself 😉

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Why does anyone even bother to produce detailed charts for several months ahead?

 

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yep agreed this thread is getting SILLY now,  no disrespect to anyone tho 

I have it on good authority that Summer 2017 is going to be a real scorcher! 

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 don't tell me the met office have done there long range forecast for summer 2017 already,  don't be surprised if the daily mail picks up on your 2017 scorcher for there headline