Those who are cold/snow seekers at heart will (IMO) need to be careful not to get too emotionally attached to the weather over the next couple of months, as the weight of probability is heavily in favour of predominantly zonal conditions and often on the mild side as the Euro High keeps coming back with only brief holidays elsewhere.
Any colder, wintry weather is likely to be fleeting and will struggle to reach the south with much effect.
This is what I've been resigned too after carefully considering all the background signals for the season - hence my lack of cold output chasing so far this month.
Yet despite all this, things aren't set in stone, as there are some unusual goings on in the Indian Ocean that have the potential to upset the usual strong El Nino atmospheric setup. Perhaps a 5% chance that conditions will deviate massively from what nearly all respectable major organisations are expecting for at least Nov-Dec and in most cases Nov-Jan (mostly zonal, perhaps even what you might call 'super-zonal').
Late winter may be a different story as the El Nino appears likely to become central-Pacific based over the coming month or so, which allowing for the lagged atmospheric response could encourage more of a negative NAO. That's a long way off at this point in time though, so for now it's just that Indian Ocean anomaly that offers a potential wildcard.
If members can avoid using emotive language as far as possible - except if we find ourselves about to be hit by a catastrophic storm or something - that will be much appreciated and help to keep the thread neat and concise 
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser