I'm amazed by the extent to which people are ignoring the signal for cooler conditions in the second half of the month. The first third to half continues to look very mild initially then trending towards average (and this as highlighted on the BBC extended forecast last night so is not just my interpretation).

The period beyond that while in "FI" cannot be dismissed when the signal is consistent. No it doesn't show Dec 2010 but it does show, on a regular basis, colder weather from the north. Therefore to judge the month's CET after one week is well, a touch premature. If you said for the first third or half of the month the CET looks being remarkably high I would agree - although it may not be far from average for the middle third. As for the final third or half of the month, it is anyone's guess but doing the scientific thing and using the data available, it certainly doesn't look mild on current available evidence.

No hype, no hope casting, no naive unfounded optimism and equally no "mature let's assume it will be mild bcause we are too grown up to be interested in wintry weather even if it is hinted at in the model output" nonsense. It is is as subjective and found less as the "cold rampers' " perspective.

A glance at the two main models which go out to ten days will reinforce the view above (and will have done so for the last day or two).

And don't get me started on winter as a whole. Nobody knows - if they did they would be very rich! We can work with probabilities but who is to say in any situation that it's not the 10% outcome (extreme mild or cold) that will materialise. We can all have fun guessing though!

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I'm amazed by the extent to which people are ignoring the signal for cooler conditions in the second half of the month. The first third to half continues to look very mild initially then trending towards average (and this as highlighted on the BBC extended forecast last night so is not just my interpretation).

The period beyond that while in "FI" cannot be dismissed when the signal is consistent. No it doesn't show Dec 2010 but it does show, on a regular basis, colder weather from the north. Therefore to judge the month's CET after one week is well, a touch premature. If you said for the first third or half of the month the CET looks being remarkably high I would agree - although it may not be far from average for the middle third. As for the final third or half of the month, it is anyone's guess but doing the scientific thing and using the data available, it certainly doesn't look mild on current available evidence.

No hype, no hope casting, no naive unfounded optimism and equally no "mature let's assume it will be mild bcause we are too grown up to be interested in wintry weather even if it is hinted at in the model output" nonsense. It is is as subjective and found less as the "cold rampers' " perspective.

A glance at the two main models which go out to ten days will reinforce the view above (and will have done so for the last day or two).

And don't get me started on winter as a whole. Nobody knows - if they did they would be very rich! We can work with probabilities but who is to say in any situation that it's not the 10% outcome (extreme mild or cold) that will materialise. We can all have fun guessing though!

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I'm amazed by the extent to which people are ignoring the signal for cooler conditions in the second half of the month. The first third to half continues to look very mild initially then trending towards average (and this as highlighted on the BBC extended forecast last night so is not just my interpretation).

The period beyond that while in "FI" cannot be dismissed when the signal is consistent. No it doesn't show Dec 2010 but it does show, on a regular basis, colder weather from the north. Therefore to judge the month's CET after one week is well, a touch premature. If you said for the first third or half of the month the CET looks being remarkably high I would agree - although it may not be far from average for the middle third. As for the final third or half of the month, it is anyone's guess but doing the scientific thing and using the data available, it certainly doesn't look mild on current available evidence.

No hype, no hope casting, no naive unfounded optimism and equally no "mature let's assume it will be mild bcause we are too grown up to be interested in wintry weather even if it is hinted at in the model output" nonsense. It is is as subjective and found less as the "cold rampers' " perspective.

A glance at the two main models which go out to ten days will reinforce the view above (and will have done so for the last day or two).

And don't get me started on winter as a whole. Nobody knows - if they did they would be very rich! We can work with probabilities but who is to say in any situation that it's not the 10% outcome (extreme mild or cold) that will materialise. We can all have fun guessing though!

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

And don't get me started on winter as a whole. Nobody knows - if they did they would be very rich! We can work with probabilities but who is to say in any situation that it's not the 10% outcome (extreme mild or cold) that will materialise. We can all have fun guessing though!

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

That Euro High - still disrupting any cold pattern for the UK.

I fear this may be a common theme this year.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

I don't have stats to back this up but my view is the key impact of a strong El Nino in our part of the world is to increase the potential for high pressure to build and become established over the Alps / southern Europe during the winter months. I know the Met Office (who obviously have looked at the stats in depth) believe the correlation between El Nino and cold outbreaks in February is the key one but I'm not convinced at all. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I don't have stats to back this up but my view is the key impact of a strong El Nino in our part of the world is to increase the potential for high pressure to build and become established over the Alps / southern Europe during the winter months. I know the Met Office (who obviously have looked at the stats in depth) believe the correlation between El Nino and cold outbreaks in February is the key one but I'm not convinced at all. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I don't have stats to back this up but my view is the key impact of a strong El Nino in our part of the world is to increase the potential for high pressure to build and become established over the Alps / southern Europe during the winter months. I know the Met Office (who obviously have looked at the stats in depth) believe the correlation between El Nino and cold outbreaks in February is the key one but I'm not convinced at all. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

GFS is predicting a major contrast between the majority of the UK and western coasts from North Wales northward. This represents unusually warm, moisture-laden air being piled into areas of high ground across the northern regions and getting 'wrung out'. Not only that but the mountains take a lot out of the frontal systems as they move east or southeast.

Across much of England it's more a case of instability being on the low side due to being well distanced from the Atlantic storm systems, with frontal systems not packing much intensity to make up for the fact that they'll tend to be movign through quite fast (or very fast early in the week!)

So far across the south, this month has managed to be frequently damp but without rain totals really amounting to much. It seems possible that, if the Euro High keeps recurring OR we switch to a cool northwesterly which also tends to be driest in the south, November will end up at least a little drier than average. That would make it three drier than average months on the trot in these parts.

It would also be a huge difference to the long-range suggestions of a very wet, stormy November for all of the UK! *eyeroll*

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser