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doctormog
10 November 2015 20:38:08


Forget "Abigail", looks like the remnants of TS Kate will be the bigger story with strong winds across England and Wales and heavy rain - more flooding - in the NW, this weekend.


Originally Posted by: Essan 


I think it is worth the weather warning if exposed parts are forecast to get wind gusts higher than 80mph.


Elsewhere, the 12z output continues to show the cool down to something akin to what one would expect in November in northern parts and less mild at least in the south.


The story could very well be the wind and rain rather than the temperatures in the next week or so.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Essan
10 November 2015 21:09:54


 


I think it is worth the weather warning if exposed parts are forecast to get wind gusts higher than 80mph.


Elsewhere, the 12z output continues to show the cool down to something akin to what one would expect in November in northern parts and less mild at least in the south.


The story could very well be the wind and rain rather than the temperatures in the next week or so.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Oh, I am not questioning the weather warning - just observing that for most people the worst weather will not come from "Abigail". 


Which will just cause confusion:

"Why did some windy weather in Stornoway warrant a name when the heavy rain, floods and gales in England didnt?" 

The point being this naming of storms is stupid.


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Brendon Hills Bandit
10 November 2015 21:17:40
I would have to say that I think it looks pretty likely that early winter, if not more, looks like a write-off for cold and snow at the moment. But at least this winter will improve our understanding of the effect of El Ninos, there isn't a big sample size.

However, I do remember the beginning of january last winter, when it looked like zonal from here to eternity, but then we had a fairly decent cold spell in mid Jan. It's almost like the weather gods don't like us mere humans to have too much certainty about the weather sometimes!
220m asl, edge of Brendon Hills
doctormog
10 November 2015 21:24:02
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif  Nor would a totally zonal mild chart at that point.

So no we can't "write off" any of winter, certainly not based on the model output for the next 10 to 15 days!

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Chunky Pea
10 November 2015 21:29:35



The point being this naming of storms is stupid.



Originally Posted by: Essan 


Why? the decision to name storms was made by Meteorological scientists. Are you suggest that they, as scientists, are 'stupid'?

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Essan
10 November 2015 21:30:08


 


Why? the decision to name storms was made by Meteorological scientists. Are you suggest that they, as scientists, are 'stupid'?


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Yes - and no, since its a straw man to suggest scientists were involved

And most professional meteorologists I know agree.

I am not sure who came up with the idea.   But my suspicion is they also thought declaring a "BBQ summer" was a wonderful idea.   And dont known a cyclone from a cirrostratus.

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Chunky Pea
10 November 2015 21:31:41





Yes


Originally Posted by: Essan 


 


Interesting...

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Chunky Pea
10 November 2015 21:36:51



Yes - and no, since its a straw man to suggest scientists were involved

And most professional meteorologists I know agree.

I am not sure who came up with the idea.   But my suspicion is they also thought declaring a "BBQ summer" was a wonderful idea.   And dont known a cyclone from a cirrostratus.


Originally Posted by: Essan 


 


The idea was a joint decision by the UK Met Office and Met Eireann. And yes, scientists were involved, so where is this 'straw man' thing coming from?

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Essan
10 November 2015 21:38:07


 Interesting...


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



Note, I amended my reply to remove the straw man


IMO those who came up with the idea are idiots.   But I doubt they were scientists/meteorologists.   Though they may well earn a lot more ....


And as I say, I am not aware of any meteorologist who agrees with the decision, though obviously some for professional reasons can say nothing in public.  

I think its going to prove a major embarassment for the MetO

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Essan
10 November 2015 21:44:06


 The idea was a joint decision by the UK Met Office and Met Eireann. And yes, scientists were involved, so where is this 'straw man' thing coming from?


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



Can you name those involved?


And if it turns out they were meteorologists and not PR men then my comment remains: they are idiots and will live to regret it.   And, IMO, dont know much about the weather in these islands.

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Chunky Pea
10 November 2015 21:58:05




Can you name those involved?

Originally Posted by: Essan 


No, but can you name the 'PR' folk that were involved?


 


Not sure why you think that naming storms will prove to be an embarrassment, but I am sure the decision to do so was not made in haste or subject to just one personal opinion.

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Brian Gaze
10 November 2015 22:40:16

Quite a chilly looking chart from the GFS18z:


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
nouska
10 November 2015 23:01:11


 


No, but can you name the 'PR' folk that were involved?


 


Not sure why you think that naming storms will prove to be an embarrassment, but I am sure the decision to do so was not made in haste or subject to just one personal opinion.


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


I suspect the naming of the storms is to get a hashtag for social media ......#anotherbloodystorm doesn't cut the mustard as far as raising awareness through modern IT.


 


 


 


LeedsLad123
10 November 2015 23:35:33



Yes - and no, since its a straw man to suggest scientists were involved

And most professional meteorologists I know agree.

I am not sure who came up with the idea.   But my suspicion is they also thought declaring a "BBQ summer" was a wonderful idea.   And dont known a cyclone from a cirrostratus.


Originally Posted by: Essan 


Oh dear - did you forget to take your anti-psychotic medication?

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Foghorn
10 November 2015 23:47:16
Latest gfs output is showing up something quite interesting in a REALISATIC TIMEFRAME with cold conditions setting in certainly here in the North from next Monday and lasting for much of the following week!
Brian Gaze
11 November 2015 07:43:07

GFS is quite interesting and shows how we can possibly get colder conditions (at least in the north) with a disjointed Atlantic rather than high latitude blocking.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Solar Cycles
11 November 2015 08:25:05


 


No, but can you name the 'PR' folk that were involved?


 


Not sure why you think that naming storms will prove to be an embarrassment, but I am sure the decision to do so was not made in haste or subject to just one personal opinion.


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Andy's just digging a bigger hole on this one CP.

Solar Cycles
11 November 2015 08:27:58


GFS is quite interesting and shows how we can possibly get colder conditions (at least in the north) with a disjointed Atlantic rather than high latitude blocking.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Looks very similar to the GLOSEA5 latest anomaly for the coming winter Brian.

nsrobins
11 November 2015 08:30:36

Perhaps the storm over why the MetO have decided to start naming storms should itself be given a name?


How about 'Teacup'?


😉

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Hippydave
11 November 2015 08:43:04

Looks like a fairly breezy GFS run to me, with temps gradually returning to average values, maybe a bit below at times chiefly in the North. Initially the focus for the strongest winds is across the North but the risk sinks south over the run.


Okay it's FI but some of the LPs that zip across the south look potentially interesting:-



With this one too a week later:-


 



 

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Ally Pally Snowman
11 November 2015 08:54:03

Definitely a shift towards colder solutions over the past 24 hrs. The ECM has some proper colder air for the Scots by day 10. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Maunder Minimum
11 November 2015 09:01:31


Definitely a shift towards colder solutions over the past 24 hrs. The ECM has some proper colder air for the Scots by day 10. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Looks as though the earlier hints of a trough building into Scandinavia are coming to fruition.


Would make it more seasonal for sure.


I am in Denmark at the moment and it is ridiculously warm here for the time of year - people walking around in their shirtsleeves.

New world order coming.
Brian Gaze
11 November 2015 09:05:59


Looks very similar to the GLOSEA5 latest anomaly for the coming winter Brian.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


I'll bank it! As long as we don't get a zonal Bartlett / Bartlett winter I'll get plenty of site traffic.  

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Solar Cycles
11 November 2015 09:07:25


 


I'll bank it! As long as we don't get a zonal Bartlett / Bartlett winter I'll get plenty of site traffic.  


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

😁

Russwirral
11 November 2015 09:29:53
A number of zipping LP's with colder air to the north - could be a few wintry surprises for a few places towards the end of November...

Interesting how the Jetstream has all of a sudden being forecasted alot more south.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 

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