Signs that the weather is about to turn a bit more lively compared to recently, and a little less mild with it.

It's all yours folks!

The 12z GFS op starts to build a Newfoundland/mid-Atlantic high in 6 or 7 days' time, which shuts off the current, mild, long-fetch south westerlies for a while:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=156&mode=0

Late in the run this ends up supporting a rather stiff and chilly westerly breeze over the UK:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=0

The euro slug stops a decent northerly in its tracks. But at least we have some cold air around. Starting to get a bit more interesting though.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

Interesting runs tonight from GFS 18Z and ECM 12Z which lower heights to our SW from ~19th onwards, with rising heights over Western Russia. A long way off certainly but a clear change from recent runs which would suggest a colder outlook from that time. A mere blip or an early indication of a pattern change I wonder?

The northerly makes a better fist of it this time on the ECM and we finally get some decent cold at day 10.

-8 850s for the first time!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0

GEM looks like it could go very cold after day 10 plenty of high pressure where we need it. A glimmer of hope for the coldies this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.html

That will do me.

Interesting to see a couple of the models going for a more NW -> SE alignment, with low pressure tracking further south, and signs of possible Atlantic ridging.

Things are looking a lot more interesting than they have done for a while.

Could winter be planning a visit to these shores?

Indeed heavy snow in the West LOL!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=2

Not convinced about snow, but both GFS 6z and ECM have a spot of bother for S England on 22 Nov, to match the above

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

A cooler flow for sure

ECM 12z has a southerly tracking jet into fi as well as colder air coming down into Scotland especially.

Very wet for the south at times.

Looks that way Duane , certainly the V Mild air is moved aside for a while at least

If that chart did verify as shown it would feel pretty chilly under any circumstances, but especially so given the very mild spell we've had since the closing days of October.

We just have to keep our feet on the ground meantime and hope that what is being suggested by GFS in FI at the moment is maintained over the coming days. That said, the ECM 12z tonight could look a lot worse for cold at T+240 and is a vast improvement on much of the model output we have been seeing of late.

Also, I seem to remember that as far back as early last week, some GFS runs were suggesting that a transition to something a bit less mild would start to take place around or just after mid-November, so in some ways those model runs don't look like being too far off the mark.

A few op runs do not an early winter cold spell make 😎

I'm a long way off buying into the NAO going negative just yet. The GFS control and many of its members continue the general WSW theme for a while yet. I'm not discounting the recent op runs, but we're a long way off calling a significant cool down. Let's give it another three days to see if the op signal can be maintained.

What cold?

Could be a good start for the Scottish skiing though

Wintry feel when compared to what we have been used to