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Solar Cycles
19 November 2015 08:42:21


 


 


People have been doing that for years. When an easterly appears on the models, January 1987 is conjured up. 1946-47 is always resurrected as an example of a winter arriving late. Cold zonality and January 1984.


This goes back before 2010, the only difference is that these have been now added to the list for comparison. 


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

It's funny how an handful of winters can skew our memories of what winters should be like here in the UK.😁

beanoir
19 November 2015 09:59:45
Temps this coming Saturday looking very chilly for middle England.
Langford, Bedfordshire
Polar Low
19 November 2015 10:04:25

Its called the power of love SC,  i wrote in my diary Very cold. 14th Feb east coast of England, drifts 6-7 feet



 


 



It's funny how an handful of winters can skew our memories of what winters should be like here in the UK.😁


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Whiteout
19 November 2015 10:29:46
Russwirral
19 November 2015 10:38:19
need to keep an eye on this for Sunday morning. Its similar to a polar Low.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_63_preciptype.png?cb=722 

They can be easily be a drizzly mess, especially with marginal aspects of the temps/dew points


however - these situations can deliver a good 5-10cms in the right situation. Especially if it arrives over night. If there is any chatter about this weekend, we should at least be discussing this.
Whiteout
19 November 2015 10:38:53

Tweet from Ian F:


W COUNTRY Change to cold weather by late Fri - weekend accentuated by wind chill. Some wintry showers (perhaps accumulations 250-300+m ASL).


 


Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Gooner
19 November 2015 10:42:02

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6017.gif


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn8417.gif


 


A cold weekend for sure


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


nickward_uk
19 November 2015 11:10:54

need to keep an eye on this for Sunday morning. Its similar to a polar Low.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_63_preciptype.png?cb=722

They can be easily be a drizzly mess, especially with marginal aspects of the temps/dew points


however - these situations can deliver a good 5-10cms in the right situation. Especially if it arrives over night. If there is any chatter about this weekend, we should at least be discussing this.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


and that's what I don't understand.  A cold spell (albeit very short) is all but nailed on, with the chance of wintry showers in favored spots, (and hints at possible more) should have had the snow rampers out in force, and produced much more debate on here...  


 


Whilst it will not amount to much, given the suddenness of this, I wouldn't be surprised to see half the country grind to a halt 😉 - but even to my inexperienced eyes, there's plenty to talk about in the charts.


 


 

Whiteout
19 November 2015 11:34:23

Warnings now out from the Met:


A band of rain, sleet and snow will move south across northern and eastern Scotland later on Friday, then into the Borders and northeast England on Friday night. The snow will mainly affect high ground at first but will fall to lower levels on Friday night. 1-4 cm is likely at some lower levels but with 5-10 cm above 150 m, with drifting in the strong to gale force north or northwesterly winds. Indeed severe gales with gusts to 60 mph could bring a short period of blizzard conditions to the highest routes later Friday evening and overnight. The more persistent snow and strong winds will have cleared by Saturday morning but ice will be an additional hazard by then, particularly for higher level routes.



Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Tractor Boy
19 November 2015 11:36:25

That's the first mention I've seen of polar lows, but this strikes me as a good setup for the prospect of such. Maybe the experts can say more but we're looking at a fairly unstable northerly airflow across relatively warm seas. Of course, such features are rarely modelled and its a case of watching the radar for developments 


Dave
Farndale, North York Moors
Jonesy
19 November 2015 11:37:58

Really surprised how the usual posters on a  daily basis seem to of vanished at the first sign of anything interesting, Has Matty H locked them all up in a Sauna somewhere


 


Looking forward to see how the Euro4 goes over the next 24hrs


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/11/19/basis06/ukuk/prty/15112106_1906.gif


Rain/Snowfall EURO4 Sa 21.11.2015 06 GMT


Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Russwirral
19 November 2015 11:40:00


That's the first mention I've seen of polar lows, but this strikes me as a good setup for the prospect of such. Maybe the experts can say more but we're looking at a fairly unstable northerly airflow across relatively warm seas. Of course, such features are rarely modelled and its a case of watching the radar for developments 


Originally Posted by: Tractor Boy 


 


I dont think this is a polar low in the strictest sense.. it seems to have origins below Iceland.  However it seems to quickly develop into a Low pressure feature - very similar in nature and strength.


 


Polar lows - from memory tend to seed a few more 100 miles north - well within the artic circle before developing north of scotland and typically running down the irish sea.


 


This feature seems to seed around iceland, then develop through the irish sea.


 


I may be wrong.


idj20
19 November 2015 12:00:08


Really surprised how the usual posters on a  daily basis seem to of vanished at the first sign of anything interesting, Has Matty H locked them all up in a Sauna somewhere


 


Looking forward to see how the Euro4 goes over the next 24hrs


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/11/19/basis06/ukuk/prty/15112106_1906.gif


Rain/Snowfall EURO4 Sa 21.11.2015 06 GMT


Originally Posted by: Jonesy 



Even if us East Kent massive do somehow miss out on the rain or snow on Saturday morning, a 35 mph north wind and temperatures being around 3 C is going to provide a rather brutal wind chill for a short while. That will come as a huge shock to the system for us soft southern jessies.  


Folkestone Harbour. 
ARTzeman
19 November 2015 12:13:42

The snow does not interest  me at the moment   Okay if we do get it but would rather have the frost for clear nights and   images next morning of frost on the ground.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Tractor Boy
19 November 2015 12:41:47


I dont think this is a polar low in the strictest sense.. it seems to have origins below Iceland.  However it seems to quickly develop into a Low pressure feature - very similar in nature and strength.


 


Polar lows - from memory tend to seed a few more 100 miles north - well within the artic circle before developing north of scotland and typically running down the irish sea.


 


This feature seems to seed around iceland, then develop through the irish sea.


 


I may be wrong.


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


I agree. Polar lows, from memory, are typically too small for the models to pick up. But nonetheless, I am wondering if we will see any over the weekend.


 


 


Dave
Farndale, North York Moors
Phil G
19 November 2015 16:26:12
Higher pressure out to the north east at this stage on this run.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.gif 
Phil G
19 November 2015 16:34:53
Becoming quite a block to the East. Temps for next Friday were progged as around +8c around here on the 6z, but now around +4c on the 12z.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19217.gif 


Polar Low
19 November 2015 16:40:29
Polar Low
19 November 2015 16:48:02

interesting chart as the jet slumps south what a battle as tiny pieces of energy head into Europe 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=234&mode=5&carte=1


Russwirral
19 November 2015 16:49:37
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_228_mslp500.png?cb=97 

FI has taken a massive step towards something very interesting... Higher pressure to the east/north east which tries to turn in an Easterly... minewhile fronts out to the west arer stalling forcing the cold front south. Perhaps on this run this develops into nothing... but little seeds like this are something to keep an eye out for. Laden with potential this afternoon.
Polar Low
19 November 2015 16:54:22

A not so bad chart for the first day of winter


 


 



 


If that chart did verify as shown it would feel pretty chilly under any circumstances, but especially so given the very mild spell we've had since the closing days of October.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Saint Snow
19 November 2015 16:59:18


and that's what I don't understand.  A cold spell (albeit very short) is all but nailed on, with the chance of wintry showers in favored spots, (and hints at possible more) should have had the snow rampers out in force, and produced much more debate on here...  


Whilst it will not amount to much, given the suddenness of this, I wouldn't be surprised to see half the country grind to a halt 😉 - but even to my inexperienced eyes, there's plenty to talk about in the charts.


Originally Posted by: nickward_uk 


 


Personally speaking, it's the brevity of the snap, coupled with the forecast snow missing me (unless that 'pseudo-polar low  comes off) that's stopping me getting excited



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Polar Low
warrenb
19 November 2015 17:23:46
Some rather interesting charts beginning to appear.
some faraway beach
19 November 2015 17:33:22


interesting chart as the jet slumps south what a battle as tiny pieces of energy head into Europe 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=234&mode=5&carte=1



Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Look at how far north both the Siberian and the Aleutian high have got on that chart.


NOW I'm interested!


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.

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