Classic positive NAO stuff from the ECM.  At least it will be closer to average than most of November

Not a stereotypical vortex though huge Siberian and Artic high by day 10 reasons to be optimistic as we head into December.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh2401.html

Agreed. The 00z GFS also has the Siberian High poking right up towards the Pole at the same time.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=252&mode=0&carte=1

If you want to avoid a winter of mild zonality, then you couldn't ask for a more pleasing pattern on day 1 than getting the Siberian High that far north into the polar vortex.

GFS 06 op showing steady pressure fall over Greenland in just over a week's time.

That is a thing of beautiful potential.

The GH ridging both eastwards & southwards; energy from that big low to the SW of Greenland slipping SE'wards.

Obviously Nov/Dec 2010 was uniquely brilliant, with all the pieces falling into place, but look at this chart from late Nov that year showing some similar characteristics. The chart posted by pdiddy isn't as good (and it's only a forecasted chart, which probably won't come off anyway), but if we do see models churning out charts like this increasingly regularly, then we could be in business.

The Azores High looking muscular and influential on the highly regarded ECM on 1st day of meteorological winter.

It does. At the same time though, I can't help but have one eye on what is happening in the top centre of that chart. Could that be the Siberian High attempting to ridge westwards towards the Arctic?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

Cool NWlies never that far away

Taken in isolation that chart looks mush, but looking at previous frames of the same model run and other model runs I think there's a decent level of interest in the output tonight if it's cold you're after. Trends, trends, and all that.

Even with my cynic's eye I have to agree. Over the last few days the Eurasian block has become much more of a feature, and it does what it's name implies - blocks the usual passage of atlantic systems from steam-rolling their way into Russia.
All the time this is happening, as well as pooling of deep cold over Russia, the possibility of a switch to a more westerly biased HLB set-up is on the table.

The potential fly-in-the-ointment is, as ever, the spectre of a big fat Azores High ridging into mainland Europe, creating, with the Eurasian block, a de facto cul de sac for those pesky atlantic lows, which then just sit their evil asses over good ol' Blighty.

I would agree, but it seems to me that it's a mobile Euro-slug that wouldn't take much salt to shift it either NW into a GH scenario, or a mushy nose into Scandi.

This morning the ECM at day 9 shows a robust  High to our south ridging into Iberia.  Strong WSW flow and a  low towards Iceland.  Classic NAO+ve winter chart.  Good for the offshore wind energy supply.  Edit - The Kazakhstan high of little help to us.

Same chart looks different from the polar view. Both the Siberian and Alaskan Highs ridging well to the north in the direction of the shallow high already situated close to the Pole. Nothing like a write-off going forward.

I must admit I'm confused this morning.  In the face of Met Office updates to the contrary, EC32 reports, ENSO signals etc etc etc, we have had a cold shot and an attempt at Greenie high this weekend.

We now see signs of the SH edging towards Svalbard, Arctic and Greenland on various runs, with a general trend of HP to the NE.  Of course, if one looks at UK in isolation, you can see a "zonal pattern" of westerly or NW winds over the next week, with lots of wind and rain probable.

However, I have seen no Bartlett (just an Azores High); no massive build up of low heights in Greenland (just the vortex moving around over the past few weeks)  and no reason not to think that opportunities exist for a cold outcome in due course.

What is it that I am missing?

I admire all the optimism and talk about Siberian High pressure and Synoptics over the pole etc but it matters not a jot to the UK as long as we keep heights to the SW and South of the UK as is predicted in the next few weeks. It's blighted many a winter past and so far looks like carrying on tradition for the start of this season too. See how it's seen off what looked a promising cold spell currently to no more than a two day wonder.

Interestingly (or not) the EC mean beyond day ten is now toying with high pressure ridging into Western Europe once again.

To me, the N Atlantic jet just seems to have real trouble getting going in a proper fashion this Autumn so far. Beefs up for a couple of days before flabbing out into insipidity afterwards. In other words, a very boring pattern

Oh that's good!

Lets hope they get smashed to pieces like some where back in that stormy winter of 13/14 to proof how unless they really are.

6z GFS  @192 hrs pretty much identical to 0z ECM in same period.  I'm pleased it is not December 22nd  and these charts are forecast for early January as the zonal flow looks nailed on, albeit with the odd cool Pm incursion, for the foreseeable.

In 4 weeks time we will be at the solstice and slowly but surely the days will lengthen, that is always a huge positive for me,

regardless of the weather

Some kneejerk / borderline trolling posts in here today based on he ECM.
Maybe worth looking at the ensembles and realise it's a ludicrous mild outlier?