GFS has certainly been looking at a HP possibility for a few runs now ,maybe it is on to something, not saying it will shoot off up to Greenland but try and cooler has been hinted at

Obviously this chart is total fantasy but wouldnt it be funny if it verified

The difference between the GFS and ECM 00z runs this morning at 240hrs couldn't be more stark. The former shows HP pretty much in control of things by that time whereas ECM shows a continuation of the atlantic onslaught. The things is, ECM has in some runs over recent days hinted at HP trying to nose in to settled things dow, but it shows no indication of that this morning.

I rather get the feeling that before long, one of them will end up with quite a bit of egg on it's face.

I'm the ultimate lover of cold and snow and signs of Scandi HP  are always welcome.

However we do have to put this in perspective.On the 0h GFS at 264h just two of the ENS have a Scandi  HP and at 384h a similar number..Hp is around in the ENS but in the wrong place -largely France,Spain or SE Europe.

METO to have recognized some HP build- " as we go into the second week of December iti s expected to turn more settled for a time" But by the end of the week it is back to mobile westerlies.

Always a chance of HP developing more widely/persistently but I wouldn't bet on it at present.

LOL! GFS's FI this morning is a thing of beauty.

Massive Greenland HP, ridging SE'wards. Big chunk of the PV over northern Scandinavia, creating a huge LP there, helping advect the cold air southwards. By t+372, all the country is under -5 air, with the -10 line covering all of Scotland, almost all of Wales, and the N/NW/W Mids.

Close to perfect.

Pity it won't come off, but nice for GFS to bring some early festive cheer 

Encouraging signals indeed from GFS and GEM. We do need to suppress the Jet stream from riding over the top of any build of high pressure as the ultimate result will be for the High to be suppressed back to the SE and bring back the Atlantic. Will ECM pick up on the GFS theme, well not without some support from it's mean charts this morning but who knows..keeps us interested.

Nirvana is for a very active Jet, but it routed well south of usual - due to massive & persistent blocking to our north. Having lows slip across the south of the country, with Arctic-sourced air feeding southwards would deliver the potential for huge accumulations in some parts.

HP further South on the 6z

I see we have our first phantom easterly of the season! First of many to sucker us no doubt

A flat sinking HP by the looks of things

We await the ensembles and (for now) hope that there are one or two perturbations toying with the same idea as the 0z. Realistically this is all we should expect. Its a slow and steady ship we need to sail. 

Yep, it was good while it lasted.

Are those not for last winter Roger ??

I see the first phantom easterly had a few punters residing on Fantasy island.  Harmless fun in those -10 uppers surging from the north; which have been replaced on FI on the 6z by long fetch southwesterlies.  Such fun

It was for last winter

Theres a couple runs hitting -10* There - so one to keep an eye out for.

P8 Thankyou :)

Wow plenty of posts in here at the slightest hint of what is most probably a cold outlier lol

Ensemble watch ahoy

He giveth and he taketh away! 

Ian Ferguson Netweather

No battle now - both agree on westerly, mobile regime (generally) to late Dec, albeit more mixed end of Dec re the degree of mobility. As UKMO noted in briefing last night, no current model signs, as yet, of anything notably cold in the forseeable.

No surprise to see a cold outlier run in the GFS. Happens every winter but the fact remains all background signals point to a mildish normal December. No reliable signs whatsoever of anything remotely interesting for coldies despite all the hope from THAT 0z.
Ah well. There's still January and February but my bet is that March and April are more likely to deliver as often is the case.

Followed by HLB in June/July/August

Can you post some facts with that