its not all about the South

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

The north west of Britain will hope that the long fetch SWly with embedded lows and fronts doesn't come off as there could be some flooding in that area:k

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

or they may be more interested in the weather in the next 8 days? 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

All winter model-viewing seasons have some of 'those' days, when across the board through reliable to medium-term and over the ocean of compulsion to the fantasy island all one can see is unremitting westerlies. Not even the n-th iteration of the low-resolution ensemble run of a peripheral model from North Korea can offer any hope of something remotely resembling your idea of seasonal weather. The recent flirtation with the blue-skirted office girl is now a distant memory, and you resolve to leave the output alone for a few days in the hope that, on your next inspection, it will have sorted the atmosphere out and tell you what you really want to see.
Today is one of those days.

😉😀

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

In response to Roger63 (as I haven't yet found out how to paste a quote in a box- am waiting for Matty's expertise on Welcome thread).

It's a very interesting post Roger. Lamb was amongst the scholars I studied at Uni, and recurring trends in synoptics at fine-scale times of the year is worth a think (for example, the start of the third week in April several times in the 1940s but also in 2003, 2007 have possibly produced the warmest weather of the month and notably high temperatures, with possibly some significance, considering it's only the middle of the month- whereas 1st October in 1985, 1997 and 2011 could be expected to deliver).

Sorry- I've just thought this is the wrong thread- is there a thread that considers these patterns?

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

WOW its quiet in here given the snow chances for Scotland in the next day or so.

In the meantime most models paint a picture of beefy high pressure areas passing to the south of England leading to somewhat milder conditions for England and Wales and eventually into Scotland at times too. I would think rainfall totals may well become problematic for some areas as we go into December.

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

I think the rainfall is already a problem at the moment. Since the start of November we have had a grand total of 4 dry days where I live, two of those were during the first three days of the month before this very unsettled spell commenced.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Any idea of totals in your area David? I would imagine that they would be much higher than here even.

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

I think the rainfall is already a problem at the moment. Since the start of November we have had a grand total of 4 dry days where I live, two of those were during the first three days of the month before this very unsettled spell commenced.

In my view, a dry spell (mild or cold) is needed much more than a wintry spell just now. That's why I was hoping that some of the GFS op runs from last week which showed HP becoming more influential later in December would be proved correct. Not so sure now, but the current wet spell has to end sometime.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

A lot of talk but not much model talk... So what are the models like for the coming 10 days?

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Wet and windy.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

Wet and windy.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

Probably for the next 10 weeks rather than 10 days.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Couldn't really hazard a guess on that one Chunky, but I'm 99% certain they must be somewhat above the average for November. This month reminds me in many ways of November 2009, at least in terms of wetness. Even November 2012, which occurred during a generally very wet year, wasn't as bad as this.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Probably for the next 10 weeks rather than 10 days.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Come on Moomin, that's a daft comment to make and you must know that.

Even the MetO won't have a clue what the next ten weeks (that's more than two months) will be like. You don't do yourself any favours making posts like that. If you're going to make posts such as that one above, then you should expect to face a barrage of criticism if/when your predictions don't turn out as you thought. Anyone who knows anything about the British weather and following the model output come to that must know that nothing is written in stone with our climate.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Wet and windy.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

Come on Moomin, that's a daft comment to make and you must know that.

Even the MetO won't have a clue what the next ten weeks (that's more than two months) will be like. You don't do yourself any favours making posts like that. If you're going to make posts such as that one above, then you should expect to face a barrage of criticism if/when your predictions don't turn out as you thought. Anyone who knows anything about the British weather and following the model output come to that must know that nothing is written in stone with our climate.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Just a gut feeling based on years of experience of disappointment. Back loaded cold so maybe something interesting in February is my humble opinion. Can't see anything else. And please remember I have done many LRFs in past winters that have gone the other way. I just feel this winter will be memorable for all the wrong reasons for cold lovers, 

Originally Posted by: moomin75