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Gooner
29 November 2015 23:21:21

Deep into FI yes, but GFS keeps toying with a change to more seasonal weather around mid month.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif



Originally Posted by: Phil G 


It has been thinking about it Phil

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Solar Cycles
29 November 2015 23:46:05
My mid month onward punt for something more seasonal appears to be showing its hand then.😜
Ally Pally Snowman
30 November 2015 07:55:44

Ian Fergusson now saying that a majority of ecm ensembles (just) picking up the idea of high pressure over Greenland by mid December. A bit like the last 2 GFS OPs . 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Maunder Minimum
30 November 2015 08:28:07


Ian Fergusson now saying that a majority of ecm ensembles (just) picking up the idea of high pressure over Greenland by mid December. A bit like the last 2 GFS OPs . 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Trouble is that it is all in FI (as ever). However, if it becomes a persistent theme in the outlook, Brian will see his hit-rate shoot up, as people pray for the blocking to move towards the reliable.


Just one word of caution (with thanks to The Who) - I won't get fooled again! I shall wait until northern blocking is show at t+96 before I start to get excited.

New world order coming.
Russwirral
30 November 2015 09:28:36


Ian Fergusson now saying that a majority of ecm ensembles (just) picking up the idea of high pressure over Greenland by mid December. A bit like the last 2 GFS OPs . 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


Its the equivalent of shaking a 6 to get off the first square of Snakes and ladders


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
TomC
  • TomC
  • Advanced Member
30 November 2015 09:30:49


Ian Fergusson now saying that a majority of ecm ensembles (just) picking up the idea of high pressure over Greenland by mid December. A bit like the last 2 GFS OPs . 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


Not much support for this from MOGREPS

Brian Gaze
30 November 2015 09:33:43


Not much support for this from MOGREPS


Originally Posted by: TomC 


Surprised about ECM in that case because GEFS doesn't offer much support either:


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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David M Porter
30 November 2015 09:41:24


Ian Fergusson now saying that a majority of ecm ensembles (just) picking up the idea of high pressure over Greenland by mid December. A bit like the last 2 GFS OPs . 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Maybe all hope of a change during December isn't lost then.


The GFS op runs, even during the early part of last week, did seem at time to be toying with the idea of a pattern change in around the second week of December. Interesting to see that they still seem to be detecting some kind of a change, even if the blocking to the NE they showed last week isn't in the present output.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Charmhills
30 November 2015 10:59:24

GFS 06z fi getting interesting again!




Not that I buy it at that range.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Russwirral
30 November 2015 11:16:33


GFS 06z fi getting interesting again!




Not that I buy it at that range.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


 


I think the consisten theme is HP to the west and LP to the east.  At the moment its that far out that each run has a different take on how that might look


 


We could end up with a tame northelry toppler - or even a block over the top of us.


 


Im waiting for a couple of days of runs - where the feature becomes a bit more time consistent


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
TomC
  • TomC
  • Advanced Member
30 November 2015 11:24:16


 


 


I think the consisten theme is HP to the west and LP to the east.  At the moment its that far out that each run has a different take on how that might look


 


We could end up with a tame northelry toppler - or even a block over the top of us.


 


Im waiting for a couple of days of runs - where the feature becomes a bit more time consistent


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


To me the ensembles (including Met O and ECM) suggest  brief cold outbreaks in a positive NAO westerly type  for mid -December

Russwirral
30 November 2015 11:30:14


 


 


To me the ensembles (including Met O and ECM) suggest  brief cold outbreaks in a positive NAO westerly type  for mid -December


Originally Posted by: TomC 

yeh same here, for the next 10 deays especially


 


Scotland is going to do very well out of all of this.


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Russwirral
30 November 2015 13:43:12
kmoorman
30 November 2015 16:21:08
Afternoon. Not on this forum, but elsewhere I've been chatting to some interested forum members about model output, and I've always assumed that the 6Z, 12Z & 18Z GFS are less accurate than the 00Z, and there is something about them which causes this (data, resolution?). Is this true?
Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
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Fothergill
30 November 2015 16:31:18

Afternoon. Not on this forum, but elsewhere I've been chatting to some interested forum members about model output, and I've always assumed that the 6Z, 12Z & 18Z GFS are less accurate than the 00Z, and there is something about them which causes this (data, resolution?). Is this true?

Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


 


The 06z and 18z GFS are slightly less accurate than than the 12z and 00z but only very slightly according to the verification stats. At least they were the last time I looked. Not sure why. Forget the link srry.

roger63
30 November 2015 16:42:42


 


 


To me the ensembles (including Met O and ECM) suggest  brief cold outbreaks in a positive NAO westerly type  for mid -December


Originally Posted by: TomC 


The METO 3 month forecast released today confirms the forecast of an NAO + month for December.However the more detailed forecast suggests a mid month colder spell for the south and suggesting colder weather in the north later in the month. 


 At least worth mounting some more detailed ensemble watches.

Ally Pally Snowman
30 November 2015 19:25:04

Things definitely seem to be brewing for a mid December freeze up, the day 10 ecm chart has massive potential .


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Bertwhistle
30 November 2015 19:30:16

Yes, where did that high north of Norway come from? If it intensified, linked as it is to the other cell, what could happen?

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Ally Pally Snowman
30 November 2015 19:34:22


Yes, where did that high north of Norway come from? If it intensified, linked as it is to the other cell, what could happen?


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


 


i think the UK would be under bitter North easterlies with in 2 or 3 days of that day 10 chart.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Bertwhistle
30 November 2015 19:40:20

I shall pin my ECM flag out now.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
David M Porter
30 November 2015 20:04:18


Things definitely seem to be brewing for a mid December freeze up, the day 10 ecm chart has massive potential .


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Hmmm, potentially interesting.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Polar Low
30 November 2015 20:20:41

We need a fair amount of caution ecm mean below lets hope the 12z is a trend setter.




Things definitely seem to be brewing for a mid December freeze up, the day 10 ecm chart has massive potential .


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Global Warming
30 November 2015 21:05:04


Things definitely seem to be brewing for a mid December freeze up, the day 10 ecm chart has massive potential .


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


The ensembles show a slight cool down by the middle of the month but nothing untoward. Temperatures no lower than close to average. Virtually no runs get below zero at all on the De Bilt ensemble data.


http://www.knmi.nl/nederland-nu/weer/waarschuwingen-en-verwachtingen/ensemble-verwachting-detail

Solar Cycles
30 November 2015 21:37:14
Great stuff over on t'other forum where Steve Murr is telling it how is with regards to the memoirs of teleconnections that appear to bore the socks of most people. Back to the models and GW perfectly illustrates what we can expect from the current output if it verifies, more runs needed ( as ever ) but we need a more favourable upstream pattern for any sustainable HLB.
Hendon Snowman
30 November 2015 21:59:29

Great stuff over on t'other forum where Steve Murr is telling it how is with regards to the memoirs of teleconnections that appear to bore the socks of most people. Back to the models and GW perfectly illustrates what we can expect from the current output if it verifies, more runs needed ( as ever ) but we need a more favourable upstream pattern for any sustainable HLB.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


 


There is always a chance of cold snowy on the horizon when Steve pops up

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