I see your command of English is as sound as your understanding of climate science.

It looks to be about only 2 or 3 degrees below normal to me, having been above normal for a considerable period before that.  of course, clearly a handful of days of colder temperatures is highly significant and noteworthy.

Yes, the negative anomaly has dropped below one million square kilometres - which is about 12% below normal.

I am astounded that the temperatures are dropping..... not what you would expect in mid-November is it?

Talk about dumbing down.....

Temperatures dropping below average obviously.
Did you not notice that in the scramble to think up the next cheap jibe (not being able to find a typing error perhaps)

Oh im hurt....Not.

This posts just shows you up again.

Oh well.....

I didn't expect anything else.  

Oh well.

Well clearly you are clearly incapable of reading a post correctly - but then we know that already.

I observed that the drop below average was hardly significant and followed a long period of above-average temperatures.

Do you need someone to explain that to you or are you able to manage that all by yourself?

The cheap jibes started with you and Robertski.  Think about why I am responding in kind.

Interesting to see the areas that are refreezing against 2007.....

Cryosphere Today - this date compared with 2007 - click to enlarge (thanks to Ric Werme)

Yes, given that 2007 saw the lowest summer minimum in the satellite record.  That year recovered quite fast once the re-freeze took hold - at the equivalent day 2007 had about 90k sq km greater extent than 2010, but as you say the distribution is a little different this year.

It was supposed to be.   I am not accepting any more nonsense from you, so you post rude sarcasm and so shall I.

Got it yet?

Im sure he is quivering in his boots....

Now can we at least stay on the Arctic in this thread??

I thought we were, but people keep dragging us off topic, Robert.  If you look back you'll see who is responsible (clue: it's you and Four).

Ice definately thicker then 2009....

The green areas are far more widespread......

I'm not sure about the 'definitely' - looks pretty similar to me?

lots more Green area in this years Ice.....

Well, rather more green but the overall area shows more of the thinner ice as well, so I don't see it as demonstrating "definitely thicker" ice.

Maybe the ice volume data will give us a clue.

Whilst at this time year the Temps 80N probably do not have to much bearing on the extent, the current temps which are probably a result of the synpotics over the Arctic will probably have large effects on the Thickness of the Ice if the colder then average weather continues.....

Danish Meteorological Institute - Mean Temperature above 80°N - click for more

I have been doing a little research this morning into ice thickness in the Arctic.

In each case I have used September values, i.e. the end of the melt season:

1979-2009:  average thickness 2.8 metres (sea ice area 4.8m sq km, volume 13.4k cu km)

2008:  2.0m (sea ice area - 3.0m sq km, volume 6,000 cu km)

2009:  1.4m (sea ice area - 3.5m sq km, volume 5,000 cu km)

2010:  1.2m  (sea ice area - 3.2m sq km, volume 4,000 cu km)

For March, i.e. the end of the freeze:  2010 and 2009 both around 1.5 to 1.6 metres.

There seems to be some inconsistency in the data but the trend seems clear enough.

That is definately in contrast to PIPS2, which clearly shows no such recent trend, as you can clearly see just by eyeballing the data, the Ice has been thickening from 2008...

2010

2009....

2008....

Two points - firstly, I think figures are preferable to 'eye-balling' and secondly, my figures are an average across the entire Arctic.  The fact that some areas are thicker clearly isn't compensating for the overall thinning.

Oh, and my figures are at September, so comparison with November snapshots isn't necessarily in conflict.

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/DriftTrackMap.html

Above is the drift track for the buoy deployed with the Pole cam this spring.

Below is an image from a few days back of the ice entering Fram;

http://www.woksat.info/etcsk13/sk13-1324-a-apt.html

and what you are seeing is the whole of that central section of ice (that formed the north pole over summer) now exiting the basin. To see this a a process taking 6 months or less and involving such an amount of central Basin ice worries me. It makes me wonder if the 'ice factory' from Bering last March is a process now occurring across the basin with old ice flowing out into melt zones and new ice replacing it in the central basin?

Such thin ice appears not to 'ride over' itself as it is too thin and fragile. From the images we have seen over the past couple of winters it just fragments into small chunks which 'flow' more easily with wind and current.

EDIT: And here's a plot of the 'Peterman ice island';

http://sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=47557

Sadly it cleared Nares in record time so we can't look for it to staunch the losses there by blocking the strait.

I wonder what the IPCC modelling assumed about melt v transport in respect of the predicted loss of ice.

As you have noted, and as another paper I read yesterday highlighted, transport of ice out of the Arctic is a significant factor.

I must admit I had focussed on melt in situ but clearly once the ice breaks up and thins then it is indeed going to drift with the currents.

By the way, do you have any views on my analysis of ice thickness, several posts above?

I very much do Gandalf but I think it'll end up with a few of our regulars taking um-bridge though!

As we know though F.Y. ice can over-ride itself into very thick slabs or ruck up into ridges but it is still F.Y. ice and so contains a lot of salt (is not very strong in either a physical sense or in opposing melting). The loss of the 'North Pole ice' that we are watching right now is an exodus of 2nd and 3rd year ice (if you look at the ice age maps at the time the Web cams/buoys were being deployed) with the same ice ages also creeping along the North of Greenland/Canadian Archipelago (see how much open water the channels into the NW Passage still has with only 'grease' between the old ice now exiting via that route?). By Winters end it will be interesting to see how the 'dynamic' of ice age/area has changed through the old 'safe haven ' of winter. Anyhow ,I digress.

The Narwhal temp findings from Baffin area show us well why ice has vanished from this area both due to the slow increase in water temp but also the mixing out of the halocline in this area. We can use this sea area as an analogue for sea areas in the basin that have not had the levels of study Baffin has received (East Siberian/Beaufort/Barents/Greenland etc).

With the loss of ice cover and the introduction of higher temps below all these areas in the Basin we must be seeing the same transformation as we see in Baffin across these areas? From Oceanic studies off Hawaii we know that swells propagate to over 200m depth. With the removal of the ice (and it's damping effect) we now have swells throughout the basin for many months of the year (even under the 'new' F.Y. snow composite as the Catlin survey found this spring). This 'mixing' removes the ice nurturing halocline and replaces it with warmer, saltier waters. As new ice forms it build it's own 'halocline' (as on ponds/lakes) and so protects the base of the ice above. As we see in Antarctica (and it's seasonal ice) 3m is about all it can make over a winter season and we saw that the ICESat/Grace mission (02-08) found the same now in the Arctic. Anything pressing the ice beyond it's self grown halocline melts out the base. It is no fluke that the only ridge/over-ridden ice now exists at the shore lines where it can beach onto the shore and escape the melt zone beyond 3m depth.

The areas of increased precipitation we see across the basin places a load that depresses ice into the melt zone leading to a freeboard of nearly all compacted snow (chuck a snowball and a chunk of ice into salty water and see which melts out fastest!). The buoy track from this summers pole cam shows just how dynamic the basin is these days so much of the pack can expect a dusting from these higher precipitation areas weakening the ice further by depressing it into the melt zone whilst insulating the melt zone from the temps above.

This years rapid freeze across the central basin will have done no more than to protect the warmer waters below and allow for a more rapid melt come May/June 2011 (I see an ice free 80N by mid Aug next melt season).

So , ice depth is limited these days and the ice type is rapidly evolving into an ever younger mix with more snow on top leading to a melted out, thinner ice layer below. We may be used to a 3m max out for sea ice but now we must also get used to large sections of this being little more than compacted snow on a skim of ice. This allows for mixing in the water column all year as the swells pass below the ice and cross the basin. Many of the ice breaker fleet now complain about swells in ice covered areas as these bring with them the dangers of 'top icing' as the bows crash through them spraying the sub zero decks with ice water which instantly freezes onto the superstructure.

So , to wrap up. We are beyond mid way into having our 'new Arctic'. The ice we build is young,salty and buried in snow. It melts out in situ (over 32% of 07's melt was in-situ melt!) in ever increasing amounts due to it's 'novel' make up and this means that we will rely less and less upon a 'perfect storm' synoptic to drop ice levels below the 'seasonal ice' threshold. This 'new ice' is far more mobile. In 08' a buoy from the Siberian side took less than 18 months to emerge in Fram , prior to this it took over 4 years. With the help of the Beaufort Gyre and trans polar drift this leads us to todays young thin ice with anything over 3/4 years old already positioned to exit the basin via Fram.

To me we are well beyond the 'tipping point' and the ice is settling into a new way of being. The next change will be when the Arctic Ocean is warm enough to challenge winter ice.....hopefully this is many generations away yet!

If more melt water is released, wouldn't TDAT scenario be a real possibilty? It may seem far fetched but maybe we should also be monitoring the GS more closley over the next few years...