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Brian Gaze
30 October 2010 06:08:35

Last topic was getting quite long.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Robertski
30 October 2010 07:43:01

Here is a comparison of this year and last years 30%+ Ic concentration.....


http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare_small.jpg Cryosphere Today - this date compared with 2007 - click to enlarge (thanks to Ric Werme)


It appears the Ice is reluctant to freeze towards Northern Europe, I wonder if there are warm Ocean anomalies? Snow cover looks more extensive this year by some degree. 

Gray-Wolf
30 October 2010 09:12:06

Hi Rob . Most of Barents has not frozen over recent years (summer and winter) and so has had the end of the NAD and been under sun all melt season. This is my fear for Beaufort and the front of Bering (facing the straights) and the NWP.


The problem with Barents is that it is receiving the Paleocrystic ice from the north of Greenland and still melting it. Not a good swap Paleocrystic for F.Y. ice methinks?


Koyaanisqatsi
ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS
speckledjim
30 October 2010 10:28:11

The slow recovery continues



Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Gray-Wolf
30 October 2010 10:57:06

At some point the CT image must reflect the data?(I know they are a little 'behind' in their compilations of images) Seeing as the JAXA plot has us now bumping into 07's growth line (and look to fall below it?) where is all this imaginary ice coming from?


Koyaanisqatsi
ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS
Gandalf The White
30 October 2010 14:22:28


At some point the CT image must reflect the data?(I know they are a little 'behind' in their compilations of images) Seeing as the JAXA plot has us now bumping into 07's growth line (and look to fall below it?) where is all this imaginary ice coming from?


Gray-Wolf wrote:


I agree - I have been predicting that we may well get a lowest ever end-October value this year.


Currently we are only just ahead of 2007 and worse than any year since the detailed records in 2002.


Currently around 7.85m - there needs to be another 150k in the next 2 days, which based on the last 10 days seems doubtful.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
30 October 2010 14:31:21

Just picking up on a post on the previous thread by Stephen, in response to a link to a paper about the state of the Arctic Sea ice:





"Some nice graphs showing a declining ice pack since 1880."

Can't be CO2 then. Even the IPCC accepts that the human effect that they propose didn't start until the latter half of the 20th century.

Given the pre existing natural trend how do they distinguish between the two ?

I know - guesswork and assumptions.



"the accelerated ice loss during the last several decades lead to conditions not documented in at least the last few thousand years."


Well there was no one who could document it properly until satellite records from 1979 so referring to the last few thousand years is farcical



 


Stephen (and Polarwind), if you had read the paper you would have noted that it say, referring to the ice loss:


and became very pronounced over the last three decades.


which fits well with your quote from the IPCC that the human effect didn't start until the latter half of the 20th century.


So, in what way exactly do you relegate the comment to "guesswork and assumptions"?






Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gray-Wolf
30 October 2010 14:32:16

Very True GTW.


How will it square with the neg PDO/Solar radiance/La Nina folk though? As I understand the Nina will fade, post Chrimbo, and possibly head straight back into another strong Nino? PDO (which I believe switched phase in 98'.....along with others) should also be taking affect by now (surely?) even if you go with NASA's 07' phase change? And how does the info of the novel currents Nino' Modoki piles up on the West coast of USA? (seeing as the last couple have been this 'novel' 'western centred' Nino?) Are the return waters of the fading Nino doing for the PDO-ve temps???


As for solar NASA tells us we are beyond the 'low' and on the way up (including 'lag time'). Here we are waiting for another very hot month and we're told we are in the 'cold phase'....and the ice keeps melting (Fram/Barents/Coastal Beaufort/Basin side of Bering Straights/C.A.).


At some point folk will have to listen to what the 'experts in their field' are saying even if they ignore our understandings of such?


Koyaanisqatsi
ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS
Gandalf The White
30 October 2010 15:35:01


Very True GTW.


How will it square with the neg PDO/Solar radiance/La Nina folk though? As I understand the Nina will fade, post Chrimbo, and possibly head straight back into another strong Nino? PDO (which I believe switched phase in 98'.....along with others) should also be taking affect by now (surely?) even if you go with NASA's 07' phase change? And how does the info of the novel currents Nino' Modoki piles up on the West coast of USA? (seeing as the last couple have been this 'novel' 'western centred' Nino?) Are the return waters of the fading Nino doing for the PDO-ve temps???


As for solar NASA tells us we are beyond the 'low' and on the way up (including 'lag time'). Here we are waiting for another very hot month and we're told we are in the 'cold phase'....and the ice keeps melting (Fram/Barents/Coastal Beaufort/Basin side of Bering Straights/C.A.).


At some point folk will have to listen to what the 'experts in their field' are saying even if they ignore our understandings of such?


Gray-Wolf wrote:


I think the problem is...



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Stephen Wilde
30 October 2010 16:37:57

"So, in what way exactly do you relegate the comment to "guesswork and assumptions"?"

When comparing it with events over the past 2000 years about which we have virtually no knowledge.

Even anecdotal reports from the 1930s suggest that a similar Arctic ice depletion occurred then but there were no satellites to record it.

Reports of the Viking settlements in Greenland during the MWP suggest it was warmer then than now and so there may well have then been less Arctic sea ice than in 2007 but there were no satellites to record it.

The ice cover figures on the way up and on the way down are in a very narrow band every year and have little significance. Only maximum melt and maximum freeze are significant (unless you have an agenda to sustain).




DD
  • DD
  • Guest
30 October 2010 17:05:40


"So, in what way exactly do you relegate the comment to "guesswork and assumptions"?"

When comparing it with events over the past 2000 years about which we have virtually no knowledge.

Even anecdotal reports from the 1930s suggest that a similar Arctic ice depletion occurred then but there were no satellites to record it.

Reports of the Viking settlements in Greenland during the MWP suggest it was warmer then than now and so there may well have then been less Arctic sea ice than in 2007 but there were no satellites to record it.

The ice cover figures on the way up and on the way down are in a very narrow band every year and have little significance. Only maximum melt and maximum freeze are significant (unless you have an agenda to sustain).


Stephen Wilde wrote:


Hi Stephen, I'm sure I've seen you elsewhere on the blog scene. I agree with you that the 1930s Arctic also showed similar recession - before there was recovery in the negative PDO phase mid 1960s. I'm wondering what you think drives this cyclicity? I'm trying to avoid getting into the tribalism some posts have venturd into recently.

Gandalf The White
30 October 2010 17:25:39


"So, in what way exactly do you relegate the comment to "guesswork and assumptions"?"

When comparing it with events over the past 2000 years about which we have virtually no knowledge.

Even anecdotal reports from the 1930s suggest that a similar Arctic ice depletion occurred then but there were no satellites to record it.

Reports of the Viking settlements in Greenland during the MWP suggest it was warmer then than now and so there may well have then been less Arctic sea ice than in 2007 but there were no satellites to record it.

The ice cover figures on the way up and on the way down are in a very narrow band every year and have little significance. Only maximum melt and maximum freeze are significant (unless you have an agenda to sustain).



Stephen Wilde wrote:


Well it seems you have your own agenda to sustain Stephen.  At least I don't try to concoct a pseudo-scientific framework to support my position...


You do not know that the current rate of decline is not unusual or unprecedented.  You haven't explained why what is occurring in the Arctic is consistent with the climate models under AGW.


Anyone with a modicum of knowledge knows perfectly well that there were Viking settlements on Greenland but that is not relevant to the discussion.  The issue here is that the ice is declining at a faster rate in recent decades, consistent with AGW.


The ice cover figures are moving in an entirely new and lower band compared to pre-2000 norms. 


You have tried various devices to argue your corner but none with any substance, indeed some feel like guesses to try to support an untenable position.


Your stance seems to be that because there are no long-term historical satellite records then nothing can be proved.  A strange stance to take and in the face of mounting evidence that somethying is awry.


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


30 October 2010 17:26:26

I came across this interesting snippet the other day. I'll leave it to others to draw any conclusions but in view of the lack of actual records/measurements longer than a few decades it is better than nothing.


 


"Unique, Research


Some fascinating examples of conditions during the Little Ice Age (LIA) are reported in a wonderful book titled, “In Order to Live Untroubled” that evolved from her doctoral thesis, Renee Fossett provides a fascinating history of the contact between Inuit and Europeans in the Central Arctic between 1550 and 1940.  Ms. Fossett lived among the Inuit and learned their language prior to working on the doctorate. A fascinating theme of the book is the change in climate, particularly the Little Ice Age (LIA) and its impact. Principle among these is the effect on food supply and the subsequent movement of people to survive.


Historic Ice Conditions


People moved into more northerly regions of North America during the much warmer conditions of the Medieval Warm Period. Vikings sailed in Arctic waters now permanent pack ice and built settlements in Northern Newfoundland and on Ungava Bay. As the sun went into decline, correlated with reduced sunspot numbers of the Maunder Minimum, the world cooled from 1450 AD. Glaciers expanded and sea ice extended over much larger areas. Viking settlements in Greenland were isolated. A 1492 letter of Pope Alexander VI reporting on conditions in Greenland says, “shipping to that country is very infrequent because of the extensive freezing of the waters – no ship having put in to shore, it is believed, for eighty years – or if voyages happened to be made, it could have been, it is thought, only in the month of August…” H.H Lamb lists nine measurable effects including “Increasing spread of the Arctic ice sea ice into all the northernmost Atlantic and around Greenland, forcing the abandonment of the old sailing routes to Greenland which had been used from about A.D 1000 to 1300.”


Ice blocked shipping it provided a bridge between islands. It was the ice bridge across the Bering Straits that provided the route from Asia to North America that made Inuit the last arrivals on the continent. Stories of this travel are still part of the oral tradition. Fossett writes about increased frequency of Inuit crossing as the ice expanded to the east. Travel to hunting areas and moving with migrating animals like caribou is basic to the Inuit way of life. Figure 2 shows the extent of the pack ice and the connection between Greenland and Iceland. This southern extent is confirmed by a change in the sailing orders issued by the Hudson’s Bay Company. As the Earth warmed out of the LIA and the pack ice retreated the orders allowed them to sail further north.


image


Figure 2: North Atlantic showing mean LIA Ice Pack location.
Source: Fossett, 2001, In Order To Live Untroubled. U of Manitoba Press.


Notice the ice extending north of the Faeroes to Norway. These limits are based on reports but represent an average. We have another indicator of how far south the ice came because in a letter to the Admiralty in 1817 the Royal Society wrote, “The ice this year that has surrounded the northern coast of Ireland in unusual quantity and remained unthawed till the middle of August.” The comment “unusual quantity” implies it was regular to have ice each year. It was unusual because of cooling following the eruption of Tambora in 1815.


Remarkable Stories


The nadir of the LIA was in the 1680s with a meter of ice on the Thames as Grifier’s 1683 painting, “The Great Frost” illustrates. It is not surprising that Fossett reports between 1682 and 1701, “several local historians in the Orkneys and northern Scotland commented on the appearance of mysterious strangers in skin boats along the coasts.” Consider these reports from reliable observers.
image
Jan Grifier, London 1683 The Great Frost


Reverend James Wallace of Kirkwall, Orkney wrote, “Sometimes about this Country are seen these Men which are called Finn-men. In the year 1682 one was seen sometimes sailing, sometimes Rowing up and down in his little Boat at the south end of the Isle of Eda, most of the people of the Ile flock’d to see him, and when they adventur’d to put a Boat with Men to see if they could apprehend him, he presently fled away most swiftly.”


Reverend John Brand reported frequent appearances of strangers in skin boats off the coasts of the Isles of Orkney, near Stronsay in 1699 and Westray 1700. The description leaves little doubt. “His boat is made up of Seal skins, or some kind of leather, he also hath a Coat of Leather upon him, and he sitteth in the middle of his Boat, with a little Oar in his hand, Fishing with his Lines” More detail that clarifies the identity was given by Reverend Wallace’s son Dr Jame Wallace. Be the Seas never so boisterous their Boat being made of Fish Skins, are so contrived that he can never sink, but is like a Sea-gull swimming on the top of the Water. His shirt he has is so fastened to the Boat, that no Water can come into his Boat to do him damage, except when he pleases to unty it which he never does but to ease nature, or when he comes ashore.”


Most remarkable is the report by the Reverend Francis Gatrell of a kayak he saw in an Aberdeen museum in 1760. The kayak was, “driven into the Don with a man in it who was all hairy, and spoke a language which no person there could interpret. He lived but three days.” Fossett notes, “An increasing body of convincing evidence that the kayaks and their inhabitants were North American was produced during the twentieth century.” The Don enters the North Sea at Aberdeen on the east coast of Scotland. There’s little doubt who these people were considering the climate and resulting ice conditions."


 


http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/29280 

Gandalf The White
30 October 2010 17:27:58


 


Hi Stephen, I'm sure I've seen you elsewhere on the blog scene. I agree with you that the 1930s Arctic also showed similar recession - before there was recovery in the negative PDO phase mid 1960s. I'm wondering what you think drives this cyclicity? I'm trying to avoid getting into the tribalism some posts have venturd into recently.


DD wrote:


Hi DD


I would be interested in the data you have that shows the decline in the 1930s was at the same rate as we are experiencing now?



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Stephen Wilde
30 October 2010 17:34:15

DD,

I think that the cyclicity is driven by differently phased oceanic and solar cycles interacting in the way that they affect the energy budget of the troposphere and in the process moving the air circulation systems poleward and equatorward as those air circulation systems try to maintain temperature equiilibrium between the sea surface temperatures and the surface air temperatures.

Stephen Wilde
30 October 2010 17:39:31
John Mason,

May I enquire as to what my agenda is ?

If you can marshall evidence to rebut my hypothesis I would consider it.

Indeed, all my posts here and elsewhere are invitations to rebut.

I have to say that so far the attempted rebuttals have not accorded with real world observations.



Gray-Wolf
30 October 2010 18:00:15


that says it all about your posts - and consistently, too!


Cheers - Hohn


John Mason wrote:


http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/oce/mholland/papers/Polyak_2010_historyofseaiceArctic.pdf


John , might I suggest you peruse through the contents of this recent paper, accept how wrong your assumptions are (once you have digested the methodology) struggle to find a supported (sci papers etc.) rebuttal but ,mostly but , keep it nice eh?


Koyaanisqatsi
ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS
Stephen Wilde
30 October 2010 18:20:00
Gandalf said:

"The ice cover figures are moving in an entirely new and lower band compared to pre-2000 norms."

Well of course they are since 1979 when the satellites first became available was the end point of a rising Arctic sea ice trend that had subsisted for some 30 years.

What about comparing it to pre 1979 norms? You cannot because there is no adequate data.

Yet that article blindly compares the current position to imagined trends over the past 2000 years. I call that irresponsible.
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
30 October 2010 18:22:52


http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/oce/mholland/papers/Polyak_2010_historyofseaiceArctic.pdf


John , might I suggest you peruse through the contents of this recent paper, accept how wrong your assumptions are (once you have digested the methodology) struggle to find a supported (sci papers etc.) rebuttal but ,mostly but , keep it nice eh?


Gray-Wolf wrote:


That's funny.

I fear the main agenda at the moment is desperately trying to maintain the AGW scam in the face of overwhelmingly unconvincing evidence.
But nevermind, a vast new industry also wants us to believe at any cost.
This is the brave new world, where big business, government and environmental activists find it convenient to gang together and shout down any dissent or contrary evidence.


Gandalf The White
30 October 2010 18:25:39



http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/oce/mholland/papers/Polyak_2010_historyofseaiceArctic.pdf


John , might I suggest you peruse through the contents of this recent paper, accept how wrong your assumptions are (once you have digested the methodology) struggle to find a supported (sci papers etc.) rebuttal but ,mostly but , keep it nice eh?


four wrote:


That's funny.

I fear the main agenda at the moment is desperately trying to maintain the AGW scam in the face of overwhelmingly unconvincing evidence.
But nevermind, a vast new industry also wants us to believe at any cost.
This is the brave new world, where big business, government and environmental activists find it convenient to gang together and shout down any dissent or contrary evidence.


Gray-Wolf wrote:


Do you have your own supply of magic mushrooms Four?



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


DD
  • DD
  • Guest
30 October 2010 19:08:18



http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/oce/mholland/papers/Polyak_2010_historyofseaiceArctic.pdf


John , might I suggest you peruse through the contents of this recent paper, accept how wrong your assumptions are (once you have digested the methodology) struggle to find a supported (sci papers etc.) rebuttal but ,mostly but , keep it nice eh?


four wrote:


That's funny.

I fear the main agenda at the moment is desperately trying to maintain the AGW scam in the face of overwhelmingly unconvincing evidence.
But nevermind, a vast new industry also wants us to believe at any cost.
This is the brave new world, where big business, government and environmental activists find it convenient to gang together and shout down any dissent or contrary evidence.


Gray-Wolf wrote:


You will notice they are talking less of "climate change" or "climate disruption" or whatever it is they are trying to call it now, and are now on about "biodiversity".


It's the same old solution, just a different problem. You'd of thunk they'd of tried to mask things a bit better this time.

Gandalf The White
30 October 2010 19:10:54


You will notice they are talking less of "climate change" or "climate disruption" or whatever it is they are trying to call it now, and are now on about "biodiversity".


It's the same old solution, just a different problem. You'd of thunk they'd of tried to mask things a bit better this time.


DD wrote:


 


Really?  I thought that both problems needed to be addressed and were receiving similar attention.  What makes you think one replaces the other?


 


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


John Mason
31 October 2010 07:47:06



 


Gray-Wolf wrote:


http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/oce/mholland/papers/Polyak_2010_historyofseaiceArctic.pdf


John , might I suggest you peruse through the contents of this recent paper, accept how wrong your assumptions are (once you have digested the methodology) struggle to find a supported (sci papers etc.) rebuttal but ,mostly but , keep it nice eh?


John Mason wrote:


I've deleted that post above. I was in a foul mood at the time!


Cheers - John

Stephen Wilde
31 October 2010 13:48:37

Thanks John, I'm glad you are feeling better now.

Just curious but I get the impression that you are a climate professional like TomC. Is that right ?
Gandalf The White
31 October 2010 14:45:27

30th October and we are yet to break the 8.0m barrier. Now 2nd lowest and very close to 2007.



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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