theweatheroutlook

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Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
28 November 2015 13:32:52

Hi all,


Here's the week ahead forecast video:
 
 
http://www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html
 
 
Here's the Written version:
 
 
http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html
 
 
Rain, gales, mild, cold, snow... Never a dull moment, ha!
 
 
Will have the latest El Nino update this evening then tomorrow it's the final and final seasonal model round-up for Winter 15/16. My winter forecast will be released on 1st December (unless I decide to hide under a duvet for the day  )
 
 
Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and the Mods for making it happen.
 
 
Onwards!  
 
 
EDIT:  Here's the third and final seasonal model round-up for Winter 15/16; http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

 
Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
ARTzeman
28 November 2015 14:06:18

Thank you Gavin for a week of weathers.  Each day will be interesting.





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gooner
28 November 2015 16:55:19

Thanks Gav

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
28 November 2015 18:07:21

^^^^^


Thanks guys! 


Here's the latest El Nino update for November 2015: 


We're more or less at the peak for this event now.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
SJV
28 November 2015 18:20:31

Thanks Gavin  Some potential for a wintry outbreak or two then amongst the gales and rain  Like you say, not boring! 

idj20
28 November 2015 19:58:33

Cheers as always, Mr GP.

Folkestone Harbour. 
schmee
28 November 2015 20:04:22
Thanks Gavin.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
nsrobins
28 November 2015 22:57:01
Cheers Gav. Hope the voice survives the last model round-up. Really look forward to it on a Sunday 👌🏻
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
29 November 2015 10:08:12

^^^^^^


Thanks all. 


Neil, voice is just about holding out OK but I think it'll be relieved when Tuesday's forecast is done and it can have a bit of a rest (I know I will ha  )


Here we go:
 
The third and final seasonal model round-up for Winter 15/16; http://www.gavsweathervids.com/
 
Looks at 11 models one last time.
 
Will add this to the Winter forecast and updates page later today with a written summary as always.
 
This is the final update before Tuesday's winter 15/16 forecast.
 
#Endgame

 

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Gooner
29 November 2015 10:58:55


^^^^^^


Thanks all. 


Neil, voice is just about holding out OK but I think it'll be relieved when Tuesday's forecast is done and it can have a bit of a rest (I know I will ha  )


Here we go:
 
The third and final seasonal model round-up for Winter 15/16; http://www.gavsweathervids.com/
 
Looks at 11 models one last time.
 
Will add this to the Winter forecast and updates page later today with a written summary as always.
 
This is the final update before Tuesday's winter 15/16 forecast.
 
#Endgame

 


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Best of luck with your forecast Gav


50/50 with the models ......wheres your money?


I'm guessing you will go for a colder Feb with some snow

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Solar Cycles
29 November 2015 11:36:55

Good stuff Gav. I guess you'll be going for a 12 week freeze and copious amount of snow for your forecast then.😁

Global Warming
29 November 2015 11:53:47

Thanks Gavin for all the videos during the Autumn.


A really tough call this winter. It looks to me about 50/50 between a mild winter throughout or a progressive set up with a very mild start but a cold end to the winter which may extend into March.


If I was in your shoes I think I might be tempted to go for a cold February on the basis that a Modoki El Nino is looking increasingly likely.

Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
29 November 2015 17:08:41

Thanks guys! 


I can't really say much without giving the game away (as the forecast will be released in a couple of days) but the comments are appreciated as always. 


Have added third and final Winter 15/16 seasonal model round-up to Winter updates page with a written summary if you can't watch the video;
 
 
http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2015-16-forecast-uk.php
 
 
Just one update left to do for Winter 15/16 now.... And you know what that is. 😉
Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Dougie
29 November 2015 18:55:09

Thanks for all the video's Gavin, best of luck with your winter forecast. 

Ha'way the lads
ErghKommol
30 November 2015 08:52:57
Thanks Gavin, yes good luck indeed with your Winter forcast as it doesn't appear to be at all clear cut one way or another.
Solar Cycles
30 November 2015 09:15:09
If I was making a forecast I would ditch the conventional approach which suggest a back ended winter due to the state of ENSO, I already think the atmosphere is moving into that next phase where HLB has a chance of becoming more established. My punt mild start with a quick switch to much colder conditions from the middle of December onwards, this lasting into January before less cold weather moves in leading to a mixed February before cold has one final stab into March.

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