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Russwirral
03 December 2015 10:49:41
any hope going into this morning GFS run has been dashed by the Euro High.

What i would say though - all runs at the moment are substantially different after the 138hr Marker...
Retron
03 December 2015 12:26:19


Keep us informed then Darren


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


The 0z control run still brings in cold northerlies and widespread snow by the end of the run, but it's not such a clean evolution - a weak ridge brings a brief northerly blast around 240, then low pressure becomes slow-moving to the west - the northerly blast from the 0z run is thus displaced westwards and missed the UK for much of the run, only moving over us later on.


Although it's a warmer run on the face of it, the overall pattern is still similar to the previous two runs, just backed further west.


 


Leysdown, north Kent
Gooner
03 December 2015 16:51:09


Still hints at something colder mid month being thrown into the equation


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


moomin75
03 December 2015 16:59:49



Still hints at something colder mid month being thrown into the equation


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

I'll get my hat to eat if that comes off Marcus. 


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
David M Porter
03 December 2015 17:01:06



Still hints at something colder mid month being thrown into the equation


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


The MetO extended forecast today mentioned that something a bit drier and possibly colder could come along during or just after mid-December, Marcus. See the media thread.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Phil G
03 December 2015 17:11:07
The suggestion of a change to colder weather from mid month (certainly down here) is back on, and my quiet optimism has grown slightly this afternoon with this moving towards the more reliable timeframe.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.gif 
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn28817.gif 

To the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn38417.gif 


Weathermac
03 December 2015 17:42:58


I'll get my hat to eat if that comes off Marcus. 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 

. It wouldn't be the first instance of hat eating on this forum moom in tongue-out

Bertwhistle
03 December 2015 18:03:48

The suggestion of a change to colder weather from mid month (certainly down here) is back on, and my quiet optimism has grown slightly this afternoon with this moving towards the more reliable timeframe.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn28817.gif

To the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn38417.gif


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


The GFS 12 shows that northerly going to a crisp wintry high, then almost hints of something a bit more easterly tensing the frames at the end of the run.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
David M Porter
03 December 2015 18:35:08


. It wouldn't be the first instance of hat eating on this forum moom in tongue-out


Originally Posted by: Weathermac 


Indeed- just ask a much respected member of this forum who resides in Cumbria for his recollection of February 2005.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
03 December 2015 18:52:09

Upto 8 days ahead: South often mild with some days not windy but some windy days, often very wet in the West SW and North as well as Central and NE parts more often than in South and SE areas.


 


Some days cold in the NW and North UK.


And some days lighter winds with chance of mild sunshine for the Central and especially SE in the UK.


Then by the time 10 days from now maybe NW flow after westerly flow,- may turn northerly at the end- that will be a possibility after next Week and it's weekend.


 


So above normal temps, normal amounts of rain - but above normal for the West and Central and N UK on some days.


Plenty of windy days in all areas, but for a few days later winds ease for few days in Central and S UK from Wednesday next week.


 


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
roger63
03 December 2015 18:55:17


 


The GFS 12 shows that northerly going to a crisp wintry high, then almost hints of something a bit more easterly tensing the frames at the end of the run.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


The operational looks to be an outlier-aGEFS 12h at  360h only 4 cold ENS out of 20.

Brian Gaze
03 December 2015 19:10:50


 


The operational looks to be an outlier-aGEFS 12h at  360h only 4 cold ENS out of 20.


Originally Posted by: roger63 


Yes it was. A point worth remembering is the GEFS are now running at the same resolution (horizontally and I think vertically) as the GFS was until earlier this year. 



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gooner
03 December 2015 19:26:19

^^^^^^^


 


Looks a big dip down on the 9th , after that anyone's guess


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


squish
03 December 2015 20:29:24
12z ECM op was a mild outlier

http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png 

Interesting times ahead- and certainly hints of a break in the flow and the chance -at least- of something more seasonal mid-month.

Saying that mild and wind and rain is pretty standard for this time of year....


D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Gooner
03 December 2015 21:21:13

12z ECM op was a mild outlier

http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png

Interesting times ahead- and certainly hints of a break in the flow and the chance -at least- of something more seasonal mid-month.

Saying that mild and wind and rain is pretty standard for this time of year....

Originally Posted by: squish 


And a pain in the backside for those in the North and West, flooding a given in the coming days


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
04 December 2015 00:28:03


The control is keen to put a block to the NE of the UK    JFF of course


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Retron
04 December 2015 06:32:35
Yesterday's 12z ECM control run still shows a northerly plunge around 216, although this time the high to the west collapses over the UK a few days later.

The latest 32-day control run (from yesterday) shows a brief northerly spell at 228, although as with the 15-day control the high topples over the UK. Further short northerly spells follow over the coming days as low pressure heads ESE'wards or SE'wards over the north Atlantic. Most of Scotland and NI are shown as having seen snow by 360, with the snowline heading south across the Midlands over the following week.


Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
04 December 2015 07:13:44
The 0z ECM op is amazing today. Not because it shows an epic cold spell, but because it shows the polar vortex withering away at a time of year when it ought to be strengthening daily. That allows upper highs to pop up in all sorts of places and yes, would deliver a stonking cold spell a bit further down the line.


Leysdown, north Kent
Gooner
04 December 2015 08:00:27

Thanks Darren


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Maunder Minimum
04 December 2015 08:24:06

The 0z ECM op is amazing today. Not because it shows an epic cold spell, but because it shows the polar vortex withering away at a time of year when it ought to be strengthening daily. That allows upper highs to pop up in all sorts of places and yes, would deliver a stonking cold spell a bit further down the line.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Yes, the vortex is torn to shreds - it is only the blasted EuroHP which keeps genuine cold away from our shores. The jet is meridional, but we are stuck because it loops up over that Euro HP cell. But classic zonal it ain't!


Wonder what causes the vortex to split and collapse - I am not aware that there has been a SSW event.


New world order coming.
roger63
04 December 2015 09:22:15

ENS count.GEFS 0n Has 60:40 mild zonal to cold at 384h.Most of cold ENS are NW or northerly with a couple of easterlies.Still waiting on cold ENS majoriy.

Russwirral
04 December 2015 09:31:50

stepping through the ensembles this morning... a pattern is emerging

To the north, a good majorityare going for either High pressure developing over the pole OR LP developing over Northern Scandinavia... however the ramifications for our shores is negated by the Euro High.. and infact we only see decent cold spells developing where we see that subsiding.

Strangely, it seems im going to be looking to the south for our next cold spell.


Solar Cycles
04 December 2015 09:45:26

The 0z ECM op is amazing today. Not because it shows an epic cold spell, but because it shows the polar vortex withering away at a time of year when it ought to be strengthening daily. That allows upper highs to pop up in all sorts of places and yes, would deliver a stonking cold spell a bit further down the line.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Exactly what I thought when I viewed it, I said last month that the atmosphere appears to be responding at least a month in advance to where we should be with a strong Nino in place. Also of note is the SOI now appears to want to play ball and this can only aid us towards the latter end of this month onwards. Intersting times ahead, though the usual caveats apply for getting any prolonged cold to these shores.

Tractor Boy
04 December 2015 09:46:33

0Z GFS Op in deepest FI shows a channel low which is very pleasing on the eye (it'll be gone soon):


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif



Dave
Farndale, North York Moors
Polar Low
04 December 2015 09:58:53

Just about the best ecm mean has looked for sometime at day7-10 regarding declining heights to the south 


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html


 



stepping through the ensembles this morning... a pattern is emerging

To the north, a good majorityare going for either High pressure developing over the pole OR LP developing over Northern Scandinavia... however the ramifications for our shores is negated by the Euro High.. and infact we only see decent cold spells developing where we see that subsiding.

Strangely, it seems im going to be looking to the south for our next cold spell.


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

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