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links dont work mate :(
Originally Posted by: Russwirral
Back from work now - here are the charts:
Source is here - bear in mind the 12z is rolling out now. You can see the last few runs too by using the dropdowns.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2015120406&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=384
12z doesnt show much disruption to the PV worth waiting for the ens
12z doesnt show much disuption to the PV worth waiting for the ens
Originally Posted by: Gooner
Yes, not much excitement in the 12z Op.
Control now rolling out, be worth seeing where that sits
Originally Posted by: Retron
Hmm, ok - so we are saying the stratosphere goes from being quite cold ( i say quite - loosely) to potentially +15*c in the matter of two weeks, with the fastest warming happening in the final week? This actually does appear to be a SSW on the cards. In the past we have seen warming but its been mediocre and late in the season. This appears to be aligning to what we saw in 2012/2013 winter.
Very, very interesting.
The 12Z GFS op says don't mess me with, I'm the boss 🤓
I have no issue with taking an op or control in isolation, but much prefer to study clusters and means for trends and on that basis just now we're only looking at a gradual cool down into week 3 of winter. Not a hair drying nightmare by any stretch, but a fair way from raising an eyebrow or indeed any part of my anatomy yet.
Hopefully the polar opposite to the GFS operational. Im really hoping thats a mild outlier, as it goes against what we have been following with the GFS suite, lately.
Expecting a lot of changes run to run in the short term while the models sort this out. The 18z will be interesting to see if that swings back to cold, or not!
Ditto
Control has a different idea to the OP , be interesting to see how this pans out over the coming days
ECM is chilly at least, cold NW flow
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East
More importantly it shoves the vortex over to Russia. All looking good this evening!*
* - providing you don't like mild, gloomy muck that is!
Not great either though Marcus. A brief tipplers with zero northern blocking. A lot of hopers are really clutching at some very thin straws right now.
Originally Posted by: moomin75
I think I will go with Darren's version thanks
This will feel raw
the word out its going to be mainly a mild month so deal with it,
Originally Posted by: sizzle
Hmmm, that remains to be seen I think.
^^^ My thoughts entirely. Cold ramping is fun but can indeed get irritating. There is nothing to suggest to me anything remotely out of the ordinary in the near or even medium term future. What will be will be.
I can think of a few more things on here that can get irritating after a while.
It will turn cold this winter. Of course it will. But just chasing the rainbow at this stage is futile as there is nothing to point towards anything at the moment. No amount of hopecasting will change that. For the time being its my ark rather than my sledge that is being readied.
Perhaps, but that is no more futile than virtually declaring an entire month to be of a certain type of weather a few days before the month itself has even commenced.
It cuts both ways, my good man.
Originally Posted by: David M Porter
I am longing for a change but I won't hope cast it.
Can you not see the contradiction there? 😎
Posters are quite within their right to make suggestions so long as it is evidence based, and in Darren's case for example it always is. What annoys me is the almost dismissive tone of some posts that declare the weather a month in advance without any reference to data or reasoning.
I don't know why I'm staying this though as it happens every year.
