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Stormchaser
05 May 2015 21:04:05


Sunniest April on record.


Sunshine levels over the last 5 months have been remarkable.


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Locally to me, 2011 was sunnier, but we're talking the elite Aprils here. That's where 2015 stands out - it wasn't insanely warm like 2011 or 2007, with the nights often on the chilly side... more in keeping with the theme of clear skies of course! Those other two years were freaky.


I had a funny quirk of stats with last winter compared to the one before;
2013/14 racked up 262.3 hours of sun, while 14/15 racked up 263.2 hours. Yeah I had to double check that too.


 


2014 and 2015 are also close in the battle for sunniest first four months, at 537.5 and 527.5 hours respectively to the end of April. Again with the uncannily similar numbers!


Yet that battle has been lost by both; 2011 had 580.9 hours to the end of April while 2003 had 552.8 hours.


A dreary run of days in February is largely to blame for 2015's shortfall, and this was experienced most in the far south, so many central parts have had greater excesses of sunshine so far this year than I have seen.


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Whether Idle
05 May 2015 21:15:26


Sunniest April on record.


Sunshine levels over the last 5 months have been remarkable.


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


I hope this trend continues for the next 5 months


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
KevBrads1
06 May 2015 10:44:23

April 2011: warmest on record 


April 2012: wettest on record


April 2015: sunniest on record


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
KevBrads1
02 December 2015 06:47:16

After a pretty quiet period, November is 3rd warmest on record and by the looks of it, one of the dullest.


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Sharp Green Fox
03 December 2015 15:00:43
Thanks Kevin. I am interested to know which two Novembers were warmer than this year.
Gavin P
03 December 2015 16:41:50

Thanks Kevin. I am interested to know which two Novembers were warmer than this year.

Originally Posted by: Sharp Green Fox 


2011 (2nd) and 1994? (1st) ?


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Sharp Green Fox
03 December 2015 17:14:21

[quote=Gavin P;739044]


 


2011 (2nd) and 1994? (1st) ?


[Thank You. My records indicate 2011 but only go back to 1997. My memory which people tell me is good, has 1970 as a mild November particularly the second half of November 1970 and the first week or so of December that year]

Bertwhistle
03 December 2015 17:20:00


After a pretty quiet period, November is 3rd warmest on record and by the looks of it, one of the dullest.


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Another one to add to the list of 'specials' since 2006. Thanks for all the work you put into this. It's creating a database for the future.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
KevBrads1
03 December 2015 18:27:50

The decadal period 2006-2015 is near the end and 26.6% of the months have been in the top 10 of at least one of the categories in this period. 1 in 4 months effectively.


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
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KevBrads1
15 December 2015 06:34:18


The decadal period 2006-2015 is near the end and 26.6% of the months have been in the top 10 of at least one of the categories in this period. 1 in 4 months effectively.


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


It looks a real possibility that the final month of this decadal period could be one of the most remarkable if not THE most remarkable out of them all.


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
KevBrads1
01 January 2016 12:04:45

Top 10 months regards to CET, EWP rainfall, EW sunshine or a combination of since 1st January 2006



July 2006
September 2006
October 2006
November 2006
January 2007
April 2007
June 2007
January 2008
February 2008
August 2008
December 2008
November 2009
December 2009
December 2010
April 2011
October 2011
November 2011
March 2012
April 2012
June 2012
December 2012
July 2013
October 2013
January 2014
February 2014
April 2014
September 2014


December 2014


January 2015


April 2015


November 2015


December 2015


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Bertwhistle
01 January 2016 17:55:17

If we start from 1st January 2006, so in the last 8 years, here are some amazing stats that have occurred that have either broken or got in the top 10 of long standing records such as the CET, rainfall series. I may have missed out one or two and it doesn't include such things as the highest maximum ever recorded in October etc.

CET Seasons
4th Warmest winter: 2006-07
Warmest Spring: 2011
3rd warmest spring: 2007
5th warmest spring: 2014
5th warmest summer: 2006
Warmest autumn: 2006
2nd warmest autumn: 2011
10th warmest autumn: 2009

Other notables
Coldest winter since 1978-79
Coldest spring since 1962
Coolest summer since 1988

CET months
5th warmest January: 2007
4th warmest March: 2012
Warmest April: 2011
2nd warmest April: 2007
8th warmest April: 2014 (jointly held)
Warmest July: 2006
Warmest September: 2006
3rd warmest October: 2006
8th warmest October: 2011
10th warmest October: 2013
2nd warmest November: 2011
9th warmest November: 2009
2nd coldest December: 2010

Other notables
Joint 13th coldest March: 2013

Rainfall seasons
3rd wettest year: 2012
4th wettest summer: 2012
Wettest winter: 2013-14

Wettest January: 2014
7th wettest February: 2014
Wettest April: 2012
7th driest April: 2011
9th driest April: 2007
Wettest June: 2012
4th wettest June: 2007
5th wettest November: 2009
7th wettest December: 2012

Sunshine
2nd sunniest winter: 2008
2nd sunniest spring 2011
5th sunniest winter: 2012
3rd dullest summer: 2012
Sunniest February: 2008
2nd sunniest March: 2012
Sunniest April: 2011
3rd sunniest April: 2007
Sunniest July: 2006
Sunniest November: 2006
2nd sunniest December: 2008
4th sunniest December: 2009
2nd dullest June: 2012
2nd dullest August: 2008

That period is 97 months

If my calculations are right, I reckon about 1 in 5 months have been in the top 10 for one or more reasons.

These are long standing records, CET goes back to 1659, rainfall series to 1766

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Statistically unlikely within that short period, and given it includes the dullest, sunniest, wettest, driest, warmest and coldest- scientifically unlikely too for any particular reason- unless we can say that, in Central England, extremes have definitely increased.


Great analysis Kev


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
KevBrads1
06 January 2016 09:14:57

Just looking at the top ones (months) in the last 10 years


Warmest July: 2006


Sunniest July: 2006


Warmest September: 2006


Sunniest November: 2006


Warmest April: 2007 (surpassed by April 2011)


Sunniest February: 2008


Dullest August: 2008


Warmest April: 2011


Wettest April: 2012


Wettest June: 2012


Dullest June: 2012 


Wettest January: 2014


Sunniest April: 2015


Warmest December: 2015


 


Scotland


Warmest July: 2006


Warmest September: 2006


Warmest April: 2007 (surpassed by 2011)


Warmest May: 2008


Wettest November: 2009


Coldest December: 2010


Warmest April: 2011


Wettest May: 2011


Warmest November: 2011


Warmest March: 2012


Wettest December: 2015


 


Northern Ireland


Wettest August: 2008


Dullest August: 2008


Wettest August: 2008


Wettest November: 2009


Sunniest December: 2010


Wettest October: 2011


Dullest November: 2011


Dullest June: 2012


Wettest June: 2012


Dullest May: 2014


Driest September: 2014


Sunniest April: 2015


------------


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Rob K
06 January 2016 09:24:06


 


Statistically unlikely within that short period, and given it includes the dullest, sunniest, wettest, driest, warmest and coldest- scientifically unlikely too for any particular reason- unless we can say that, in Central England, extremes have definitely increased.


Great analysis Kev


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


And yet we often hear people moaning on here that we're stuck in a boring (dire vile filthy etc etc) perpetual autumn!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
KevBrads1
06 January 2016 10:26:34

What I find notable about that list is the lack of extremely dry months. The predictions have been for wetter winters and drier summers to increase.

Wettest and warmest dominate that list. It's not so much a surprise that coldness is lacking but where are the extremely dry months? There have been very dry months but they have been eclipsed by the very wet ones and they have been record breaking ones at that.


The last record breaking dry month for the 1766 rainfall series was August 1995.


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
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Rob K
06 January 2016 10:31:31



Wettest and warmest dominate that list. It's not so much a surprise that coldness is lacking but where are the extremely dry months? There have been very dry months but they have been eclipsed by the very wet ones and they have been record breaking ones at that.


The last record breaking dry month for the 1766 rainfall series was August 1995.


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


 


I'm never quite sure how they work out rainfall totals for the country as a whole. Do they just average all stations, or is it more complex than that?


 


I wonder whether general dryness may be getting hidden by more extreme storms skewing the rainfall figures up? Often in summer it can be generally dry but a few stations will pick up very large rainfall totals from thunderstorms.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
KevBrads1
06 January 2016 12:46:04


 


 


I'm never quite sure how they work out rainfall totals for the country as a whole. Do they just average all stations, or is it more complex than that?


 


I wonder whether general dryness may be getting hidden by more extreme storms skewing the rainfall figures up? Often in summer it can be generally dry but a few stations will pick up very large rainfall totals from thunderstorms.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Storms can skew rainfall figures. Infact, exceptionally wet months or seasons are not exceptionally wet everywhere. However, given the theory that extremes are caused by weather patterns getting stuck in a rut for long period, it does beg the question why hasn't there been such an extended period of high pressure to give a record breaking dry season or month? 


 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Saint Snow
06 January 2016 12:53:25

Here's hoping you can add January 16 to the collection, in the 'record breaking snow depths' category 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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LeedsLad123
06 January 2016 12:55:33


 


Storms can skew rainfall figures. Infact, exceptionally wet months or seasons are not exceptionally wet everywhere. However, given the theory that extremes are caused by weather patterns getting stuck in a rut for long period, it does beg the question why hasn't there been such an extended period of high pressure to give a record breaking dry season or month? 


 


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Did April 2011 not make it? Had 0.5mm at my nearest station and 0 days of rain >1mm. Bar a totally rainless month, it's hard to get much drier than that.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
KevBrads1
06 January 2016 13:06:13


 


Did April 2011 not make it? Had 0.5mm at my nearest station and 0 days of rain >1mm. Bar a totally rainless month, it's hard to get much drier than that.


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


Its was one of the driest, over England and Wales as a whole April 2007 was even drier. 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
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Bertwhistle
06 January 2016 20:06:44


 


And yet we often hear people moaning on here that we're stuck in a boring (dire vile filthy etc etc) perpetual autumn!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


That's (another) good point Rob. If we're having such a lion share of the extremes in recent times, it would stand to reason that the weather of the past was unbearably boring if it's dull now- and yet, talking about it is part of our cultural identity, as Richard Mabey has pointed out. Probably more talked about than- dare I say- sport.


Conclusion: our weather is constantly amazing. I'm sure no one in Tumbuctu would disagree.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
06 January 2016 20:22:40


 


That's (another) good point Rob. If we're having such a lion share of the extremes in recent times, it would stand to reason that the weather of the past was unbearably boring if it's dull now- and yet, talking about it is part of our cultural identity, as Richard Mabey has pointed out. Probably more talked about than- dare I say- sport.


Conclusion: our weather is constantly amazing. I'm sure no one in Tumbuctu would disagree.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


Not necessarily: an extreme wet or dull summer followed by an extreme warm winter would be the definition of a boring Autumn climate. We've not had routinely colder winters and hotter drier summers, which would make the climate seem more extreme.


Re dry months, and as an aside. It's interesting to look into the detail of the regional climate model projections for Western Europe, both in terms of timing and geographical variation. They do show wetter winters almost uniformly, but the modelled dry summers only cover Southern England and the continent. But more interestingly, the dry summer projection is for the 2050-2080 timeframe. On the time series I've seen (I'll try to dig them out) there is a bit of a bump up in summer rainfall in the first couple of decades before a steep decline. This kind of detail understandably gets lost when we tend to be shown just the end state. Right, now I have to get googling to find those time series.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Bertwhistle
06 January 2016 20:40:41


 


Not necessarily: an extreme wet or dull summer followed by an extreme warm winter would be the definition of a boring Autumn climate. We've not had routinely colder winters and hotter drier summers, which would make the climate seem more extreme.


Re dry months, and as an aside. It's interesting to look into the detail of the regional climate model projections for Western Europe, both in terms of timing and geographical variation. They do show wetter winters almost uniformly, but the modelled dry summers only cover Southern England and the continent. But more interestingly, the dry summer projection is for the 2050-2080 timeframe. On the time series I've seen (I'll try to dig them out) there is a bit of a bump up in summer rainfall in the first couple of decades before a steep decline. This kind of detail understandably gets lost when we tend to be shown just the end state. Right, now I have to get googling to find those time series.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


Aah, but you see Tim, that's where subjectivity undoes itself. Although some of your points are (genuinely) interesting, they don't respond pertinently to my comment about the weather being amazing. You see, I quoted a conclusion- my conclusion; and only I can conclude that I am amazed (or unamazed) by it. This isn't one you can prove, disprove, or even contribute to with science alone. And quite right too- the thread name is about 'remarkable'- we're all remarking on it. Call it semantics, call it lexicology; but you simply can't use the definition when referring to a human receptive response like 'boring.' You can of course say it's your definition (unless of course you have done an 8-out-of-10 cats thing). Now, that would be boring. And, of course, if you were to say my post was boring, I would probably agree with you.


Addendum: extreme is not the antonym of boring.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
KevBrads1
01 February 2016 06:43:03


Here's hoping you can add January 16 to the collection, in the 'record breaking snow depths' category 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


It may have snucked in as in the top 10 wettest Januaries for England and Wales!


 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
LeedsLad123
01 February 2016 10:50:02


 


It may have snucked in as in the top 10 wettest Januaries for England and Wales!


 


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Interesting. Jan 2008 and 2014 were both much wetter in this part of the world.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.

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