Meanwhile this GEM FI 850 chart shows a beautifully defined warm sector at 240h:

GFS 12H at T + 162 shows no sort of pressure cell over Greenland; that seems quite unusual-is it to do with the model not managing its surrounding pressure patterns comfortably?

Back to reality on the 12z - one of the more reliable runs of the four and showing standard zonal mush again until late FI.

I've been blown around with the wolves this afternoon, but good to see this thread's lively as ever!

The 0z ECM control run shows much the same as this morning's 0z operational run - high pressure moves over the UK. After that, a low sweeps in from the NW and fills over and just east of the UK, with northerlies tantalisingly just out of reach to the west.

It looks like that high will mark the end of what has been a quite remarkable dull, mild, wet and windy spell. Here's to more seasonal weather from next weekend onwards!

Scrooge 

Still some interest after the next working week, mooms  Depends on which run you interpret, clearly 

It seems to me that while developments during next week look to be pretty much nailed on, what happens after the end of next week seems to be up in the air, at least to some extent. The models, GFS especially, seem to be toying with the idea of some kind of pattern change, but what that will be remains to be seen.

i reckon it will be a HP over the UK, bringing frosty and settled weather in the run up to Xmas.  Much more of a realistic scenario for the UK. 

Agreed.

FWIW, I think that after the wetness of the past month or so and resulting flooding and the saturated state of the ground in many areas, a dry spell is needed rather more than a wintry spell in the near future.

I don't think I can recall an occasion in any past winter when we have gone from a long zonal spell as per recently to a wintry spell directly. Both December 2009 and November 2010 saw drier, sometimes frosty spells which seemed to be a transition from the end of the unsettled period and the start of the wintry weather.

And the evolution at the end of FI from HP over N France to N SCandi HP looks a bit suspect

Agree David. I'm also a believer in the weather balancing itself out. It's been so mild down here that it could flip the other way within a fairly short time.

I couldnt agree more K , back to realiaty butwith the Control

But in all seriousness there are wild swings in the models just lately which is often a sign of a pattern change emerging. Perhaps. Let's hope so if only to allow the poor northern contingent to dry out.

So close to Xmas and your trip I really couldn't take your money.

Some grouping around around 11th

If you read my post from this morning back again, you'll see that I said " a lot of the time". That does not mean "always", as some weeks are easier to forecast than others dependant on the prevailing conditions at the time. The models have though, to be fair, been pretty consistent about the coming week's prospects in recent days as they have consistently said remaining unsettled & mostly mild until at least next weekend.

To back up my point above, I have long since lost count of the number of times I've seen the BBC Countryfile week ahead forecast end with the line "there is a lot of uncertainty regarding developments at the end of the week".

Yes K

Our friend Mr Hubbert has often said that

A bit of Marcus style cherry picking. JFF of course....but phew what a scorcher.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn26417.gif

I personally reckon the December all time CET record is going to be seriously under threat this year.

If that happens, I'll eat my hat.

Ditto,,,,,,at least the control is consistent with this idea eh

One of those runs where the GFS op and control stay together for a week and then some subtle trigger sends the op on a standard course whilst the control delivers synoptics that would ordinarily have this thread in meltdown.

ECM isn't too shabby either. Without going into too much detail one does feel a major pattern change is very much being toyed with across the NWP