I've never said anything different , listening to what people in the media say , the form horse for cold was always later in the Winter ( not a given obviously )

Interesting how you remember small details from exciting times. Feb 86 here had a half-day of snow in the first week; I was working outside at the time trying to draw 1:1250 plans with fingerless mittens that never really proved their worth. . Then there were flurries & smaller settlings through the month and the first freezing day was quite late in the month. I remember walking along a high street in the afternoon and seeing water frozen as it ran from a downpipe, leaving a snaking trail of white-edged ice across the pavement.

The biggest snowfall was on 1st March. It snowed for most of the day & into the evening.

I think with the start of December we've had so far it's not just the floods up North that will be newsworthy. With another week at least of incredibly mild conditions down here in the South there will be some remarkably high December means by this time next week. Until those heights to the South and SE of the UK dissolve away the chances of widespread cold across the UK are very remote. Despite promising signs of change in recent model runs towards something colder with some cross model support I feel that a backtracking theme has emerged with further zonal and often mild dross continuing across the UK especially the South well into the second half of December.

Indeed, looking at GEFS I'm struggling to see any sign of an air frost IMBY this side of Christmas. 

O/T

I just had to mention that this afternoon I have seen flowering daffodils. That's early even for Cornwall. One week into winter!!!

(I suppose that they could be early flowering, but still very early)

Sorry just had to say.

Andrew

If you are right Kieren, I'm sure you will get the all the plaudits going. However, if things don't turn out as you presently envisage, then I hope you'll be prepared for the inevitable stick that will almost certainly come your way. Not from me personally, I would add.

Just saying!

The weather always imo finds a strange way to eventually balance things up 

I dont agree Martin do we have cross model agreement at t360 then

Charts like this are inches away from a easterly outbreak im not saying one way or the other but to make a comment out that far imo is ot

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0&carte=1

CB- you'll see on the gardening thread that there have been daffodil blooms here for a week or so now and I agree- it's the most blooming daffs I've seen in December now; outside the fire station, in the lawns, there are (WERE, AT 3.40P.M.) 16 fully blooming daffodils in 4 clumps.

This has always been an odd display but this year takes it.

Well I am not buying any of it. It is too depressing to imagine we will have another complete write off December and I don't believe it is possible.

We are well overdue a blast of winter and we will get it, so there!

I would be more inclined to agree with what Moomin has said about this month if this were the last 10 days of December and we had a pretty decent idea from the models of what the remaining days of the month were likely to produce. I've been following the model output on an almost daily basis since early 2005 and one thing I learned pretty quickly about it is that sometimes, the model are just as unpredictable as the weather itself and other members of this forum in the past have been caught out. Just as Andy Woodcock about February 2005 for example.

At the moment, even the MetO are not completely ruling out the possibility of some colder weather later this month, according to their medium range updates over the past few days.

A quick look a few interesting gfs members evolution's regarding a possable outbreak from the east

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=14&ech=288&mode=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=12&ech=204&mode=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=20&ech=288&mode=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=18&ech=300&mode=0&carte=1

To my eyes those charts still show High pressure and Low pressure in the wrong place with any jet stream still riding over the top forcing any ridging that has made its way further north back South again..and why?  because heights remain too high over France and Spain. In all honesty I hope you are right. Not drifting this off topic but there is an awful lot of abnormally warm air in parts of the Northern Hemisphere at the moment. It seems ironic that the Climate Change talks in Paris at the moment are likely to see some very high December temps too in the next few days.

I am led to believe that a strong El Nino promotes higher heights over continental Europe ?

With this in mind I think its fair to say that if this teleconnection is correct then we will struggle to get proper cold to our shores. The atmosphere appears to be attempting to disrupt its default pattern to our north but as long as heights remain high to our south we are scuppered ..especially in the south of the UK. 

I have lost count of the number of people who have taken what the Beeb put out on their website about El Niño leading to cold winters and taking that at gospel. I actually don't believe that El Niño has a huge impact on our side of the globe, with the possible exception of firing up the jet stream even more than an average winter, but it appears any difference it does make appears to bring about milder winters more often than not. As does La Niña and Enso neutral. In fact I fail to see much correlation between the equatorial Pacific and UK winters at all. As Gavin has said on all of his excellent videos, there is much more research needed into these phenomena and it is all high conjecture as to whether there is much impact at all. We are a temperate island surrounded by warm seas (relatively speaking) and so mild and wet sums up 90% of our winters.

The first cold spell of the 2009/10 winter started about a week before Xmas IIRC, and it was a pretty severe spell too, very similar to December 2010 in nature. Although the worst of the wintry weather eased up my about mid-January, the remainder of it wasn't exactly mild from what I recall and the spring of 2010 had a lot of chilly weather too. Don't know whether or not the 2008/09 winter took place during an El Nino.

We've been round the El Nino discussion several times. This diagram below is from the UK Met Office and it suggests a cold anomaly in northern Europe only applies during weak events. As I've said before I don't understand how this is reconciled with the standard 'back loaded' winter statement which has been issued for this winter. 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-la-nina/ENSO-impacts

Seen any squirrels recently.  No, well they are all snuggled up ready for whats coming in the new year.  Anyone noticed the lack of seasonal birds chirping in the mornings north of the midlands.  Ask the guys living down south how noisy it is of late!!.  

Stop fretting about anything past 2 weeks, ain't worth the bother.  But all the folklore signs are, its coming gents, and it's going to be great for cold snowy lovers.

Nothing scientific, but I will bet a nice fat Juicy rabbit that all this in depth analysis of super computers and over analysed models past 2 weeks are a complete waste of time.

Nature has a way of giving us signs and they are looking good for early January for cold and snow.

Maybe El Nino/La Nina are not the only influence on weather patterns?.

That was for Brian.btw.

Looks like a bit of a battle coming up with a fair mass of cold air to our North West and the warmer SW Atlantic.

Where will the conveyor belt end up?.

Yep, see them all year round down here. This year they're looking a little fatter then normal though 😂