Summed up well

Can't decide what to make of the various model runs at present. The ECM FI looks nice and not too far away to bringing some cold air to our shores. The NH view is fairly encouraging at that point too so always a chance the HP might hold on for a few days and it's certainly different to our current dross.

GFS op run seems to re-intensify the PV as it wanders in to FI, albeit not in a too concentrated fashion. There's a bit more HP influence at least so not as wet as currently although not dry by any means and not cold particularly. Further North and as you'd expect more in the way of colder air, so probably not a bad run for the mountains.

The ens as you'd expect show a fair bit of scatter but are generally milder than some sets have been over the last few days. 

The upshot is I'm not as optimistic of a move away from the daftly mild weather we've currently got down here as I was - hopefully GFS will swing back cooler on the 6z, although IMO that run is usually a milder more unsettled one than the 00z

Edit: 

Should have checked the 6z before I hit 'post'. The op at least is cooler and ends encouragingly chilly. NH view is different again - obviously a case of stick to the reliable and just check the ens for trends (even more than normal!).

Good luck in finding a trend beyond the standard 5-day slot in that lot. Very hard to know what might happen beyond that point:

 Edit: And the 00z ECM ensemble ranges everywhere:

It is always the same when a pattern change is on the way as the result of a disrupted vortex - takes a while for the models to come to a settled position.

I have been following this forum for long enough to see that there will be several upswings and downswings in mood before we arrive at the destination. Some runs will promise snow armageddon and will get everyone excited, only to be let down, whilst other runs will be massively disappointing. However, the point to grasp is that there is now hope as the pattern change gets underway - we just have to hope that the pieces of the jigsaw fall in the right places to favour our corner of the NH.

I sense that as well Neil. As you have said above and I commented last night in here, it does seem that the models are toying to some degree with a pattern change. We could sure do with one, even if it was a change to a much drier spell even if not particularly cold. A dry spell is needed much more than a wintry one at the moment, IMO.

The ecm Op still offer reasons to be optimistic this morning for a mid month cold spell.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh2401.html

But the mean is as poor as I've seen for awhile in fact it's a shocker for cold! So who knows?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reemnh2401.html

So the cooler settled spell looks off then ? 

 A very good and wise post

But have a look at that ECM ensemble I posted above. The average of a range that wide is meaningless really. It's just a yellow line drawn through the middle of dozens of diverging outcomes, both mild and cool.

I wouldn't say that just yet as sometimes Mean charts can be next to useless as if there are two very differnt outcomes the models are struggling with the Mean will show neither. But I would say there is more doubt this morning.

thats true but I think there is more doubt this morning.

It's those height over Europe refusing to fall that keeps complicating the issue, IMO.

Didn't someone once say to watch the pressure over Bern?

Exactly the point - the Mean tells us nothing when it simply splits the difference between two possible extremes. A meridional pattern does not guarantee cold - the consequence could be bitter cold or unusual warmth, all depending on where in the mix our little piece of the NH ends up. As others have commented though, the Euroslug could be a spoiler for us in an otherwise favourable pattern.

6z pretty poor, has to be said.

It doesn't look too bad for a while from the point of view of those of us wanting to see some drier weather, though. I for one am desperate to see a drier spell, even if it isn't all that cold.

Been quite a dry year here David , but the Control certainly keeps it interesting

Clearly an outlier and probably with little support, but worth a post

We could see a pattern change although I remain doubtful. The real weather news is in the here and now. Flooding and storms in the north coupled to extraordinary warmth in the south. A couple of weeks until Xmas and these things are growing in my garden again. Incredible.

I suppose all you can say is that we're at such a level of mildness that the only way is down later in the winter... Isn't it?

I don't think it is as meaningless as you suggest as it can give you general idea of 'trend', so to speak.  FWIW. The EC mean does show some sort of disruption or 'kink' in the pattern around day 7 to 12 but  showing a deepening of the polar vortex once again to our NW thereafter.

It was probably winter 2013/14, Kieren. Once the zonality got going in mid-December 2013 it went on pretty much unabated until mid-late February 2014. Nothing unusual about wet & windy winter weather in this country, but the sheer persistence of it that winter over such a long period was most unsual in my experience.

Last winter was very zonal from early December until mid-January, but was much quieter and often colder after that, and certainly much less wet.

There doesn't seem to be much respite from the rainfall over the next week or so. GFS accumulations - 100-150mm in places:

I'd be surprised if the winter comes in below par but even more so if it finishes 5 above.

Thats no real surprise though Brian, I have just mowed the lawn and its not the first time Ive done that in a December

That big cluster looks like edible Coprinellus micaceus mushrooms.