The atmosphere seems to be in a very chaotic state at the moment with a whole range of options shown on the ECM and MOGREPS ensembles for Christmas week., zonal westerly, Northerly outbreak, anticyclone even some easterlies. Slight favourite is a Euro high

Originally Posted by: TomC 

Not with me, it isn't

Originally Posted by: kmoorman 

December still looking a total write off then? Who would have thought that? Record December CET very much on the cards now. Just feel sorry for the flood hit areas as the charts show no solace. Anyone would take a cold high over this now. Shockingly bad charts again. Can start thinking January could follow suit too before long. Never has a pattern change been more sought after.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

The atmosphere seems to be in a very chaotic state at the moment with a whole range of options shown on the ECM and MOGREPS ensembles for Christmas week., zonal westerly, Northerly outbreak, anticyclone even some easterlies. Slight favourite is a Euro high

Originally Posted by: TomC 

Totally agree, apparently the METO guy Ian has tweeted that there is no change in sight into January. The winter could break all manner of rainfall/temp records.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

looking cold this weekend north of the Midlands

Possible snow for Pennines, and parts of Northern england.

With a bit of luck - it could even make its way to lower ground.

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20151209/06/78/h850t850eu.png

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20151209/06/78/ukmaxtemp.png

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20151209/06/78/prectypeuktopo.png

Temps into Sunday:

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20151209/06/102/ukmaxtemp.png

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

A reasonable synopsis that appears to have been lost amongst the toys heaping up underneath the prams

06GFS  - it's an easterly, don't knock it LOL

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Not being funny but that was for the SW and he said any prolonged or significant cold weather, how often does the SW get that ???

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

December still looking a total write off then? Who would have thought that? Record December CET very much on the cards now. Just feel sorry for the flood hit areas as the charts show no solace. Anyone would take a cold high over this now. Shockingly bad charts again. Can start thinking January could follow suit too before long. Never has a pattern change been more sought after.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Surely he was talking about the country as a whole when looking into January ? How would they be able to determine North/South splits when looking a month ahead, it would be impossible.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

First Xmas day chart

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

I'm dreaming of a mild green Christmas.

Just like every other year.

With old Jacko smiling and Moomin moaning,

And Gooner posting just for fun.

I'm dreaming of a mild green Christmas

With every Christmas card I write,

May your days been gloomy and damp,

And may Gooner have another ramp! 

😊

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

First Xmas day chart

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

I know weather is a hobby for most that post on here and surely we all know the default pattern for Winter in the UK is SW winds and rain, heaviest in the usual parts of the North and West. Any change in this rule of thumb are less likely than anything else and weather like the Winter of 2010 is as rare as they come however having said the above I concede that the current level of mildness both here and in other parts of the Northern hemisphere is unprecedented so far this Winter and it's going to take some major pattern shift to move it, something which looks as far away as ever from any output I have seen this morning.

Originally Posted by: GIBBY 

TomC's post earlier was worth reading for those who feel a mild rest of December is inevitable!

Meanwhile, here are the ECM ensembles - there is still a cold cluster, albeit it has fewer members than recently. The op run was one of the mildest again. This sort of thing is to be expected as the models flipflop around with their handling of the upstream pattern.

The GEFS ensembles also show a (minority) cold cluster:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=6&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

The only thing that's certain is the outlook isn't nailed-on in any way, shape or form!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Sorry Darren. With utmost respect to you as one of the most knowledgeable posters here, but a mild rest of December is absolutely inevitable. You need look no further than the exceedingly bullish Met Office update and the general state of all the NWP. It is unrelenting dross for the rest of December and I daresay January will turn out exactly the same. This pattern is locked into place and we are in my view definitely in need of something major in 2016 to get us out of this. No doubt that will arrive at the end of February to give us a cold and thoroughly depressing start to spring before northern blocking returns to ruin summer 2016. That is sadly the climate we live in. 

And even if we get a brief cold snap which is highly unlikely in my view, the December CET WILL come out well above the average. There can't be any doubt left in that.

Originally Posted by: moomin75