It's interesting to discuss this on the day that the BBC breakfast weather opened with talk of snow, and there is a reasonable chance of snow for some northern (and elevated) parts. I would also find it interesting to see a NET (North England Temperature) to compare with the CET as it seems we have had the UK sitting on the dividing line of the warm and cold air for a fair while now, and not at of the UK has been basking in the warmth. I don't know enough to say, but presumably there have been other periods in the past where this has happened? 

Ah well, there's always January and February and even early March in which could deliver cold and wintry conditions.

I know it wont Ian.

But there is a lot of winter left yet, a lot.

No one interested in this then?

I am. BBC says sleet only, but they also went for sleet during that minor snow event in late November and we got a covering from that albeit shortlived. Wouldn't be surprised to see snow falling.

Why?

aw its being very kind to us on the wirral - but i cant see that being any more than a sleet on ground 200m + event, away from the proper hills

I really cant see how you can write December off with the best part of 3 weeks still to go....Yes the charts are showing Mild now but it could be very different in a few days time.

If its all the same with you, I wont write off December just yet and I'll continue to look at the December charts until the 31st (along with the longer term prospects), especially when charts such as this from the 06z GFS:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.gif

are being churned out. Yes, its FI, and yes its a transient toppler, but with the correct timing we could still end up with a seasonal-feeling Christmas Day which would be very welcome.

That said, I'm glad that you're glad and are concerned for the wellbeing of the people.

Don't know about that, winds will be light so evaporational cooling will, likely, take over. I suspect the likes of leeds far from seeing sleety flakes will see a covering of wet snow. 

Merry Xmas from the 6z Control Run

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015121106/gens-0-0-348.png

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015121106/gens-0-1-348.png

It also predicts that Tyson Fury will win SPOTY and Donald Trump gets the Nobel Peace Prize.

That's how I see it Q. EC could be a significant factor if the precipitation is heavy enough so a snow event not out of the question.

As for December, it's ridiculous to write off prospects for cold given we are still 20 days from the month end.

All we can say is that current output is largely mild for the next 10 days, at least down here.

Dismissing anything at over 10 days does not help this thread, whether it be posting charts in isolation, or sweeping statements, neither of which is logical if you know anything about Model Output

The blowtorch chart of the day goes to the UKMO +144hrs. Wonder what maxes that would give? 15-16c widely probably.

sitting outside at night in a tshirt weather that.

If it's coming in on an easterly then it might be spot on. We had near on a foot of snow from the March 2013 episode (annoyingly I was away but photos v impressive for IMBY), yet I heard areas further east got almost nowt, due to a rain shadow effect. In marginal setups rain shadows are absolute killers and often forgotten about. We also got a thick covering of snow on Boxing Day last year in spite of the hours of rain which preceded it. It didn't last long but I think that came in on an easterly wind as the LP tracked just to the south of us.

All the same though, this particular setup doesn't exactly scream potential and I would also be wary of a model predicting snow for this part of the world!

As for the 06Z I will take P3 please:

I would be more inclined to agree with Moomin (as far as "writing off" the remainder of December is concerned) if December ended a week from now. At the moment' we're only a third of the way through the month and, as we've seen this past week, there has been and in all likelihood will be some more flip-flopping in the model output for late December over the coming days.

If some of the GFS ops in FI are proved to be right, there may be something a little more interesting around Xmas time. Time will tell, it always does.

Right now though I don't think this time I will be far off the mark...except my December CET guess could be about 1.5 degrees too low. 😱

Well said, Dave.

GFS so far blowtorch but very interesting none the less for developments further down the line.

But then GFS just keeps a low in the atlantic for days with the blowtorch, in fact the low goes south then bak north but does not advance.