The main reason I mentioned Andy's slight, shall we say, misjudgement in 2005 was to show it as an example to everyone, but Moomin especially, of the dangers of one counting their chickens before they have hatched. Andy seemed to be reasonably sure in early Feb 2005 that out last chance of cold that winter had gone, and based on the models at the time it was difficult to argue against that view. However, within a few days of him saying that, the models did a big U-turn and a cold spell became more than a distinct possibility.

For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not saying that Moomin will be proved wrong wrt this month like Andy was back then, but as Brian has said above, no matter how bad the charts may look for cold at the moment (though they don't look too bad for Scotland IMO), there is still enough time left this month for changes to happen before we reach New Year. If someone out there has a crystal ball and can tell me that they know for sure what the next three weeks will be like, be my guest!

It's odd, I don't see many disagreeing with you, yet you insist on posting the same messages several times each day? What's the point?

Take a break if it's bothering you that much, but why do you insist on telling everyone else to write off the next 3 weeks?

Just what I was thinking. The weather may have been breaking records recently, but there's another kind of broken record on this forum.

Indeed. And in the real world, there is likely to be some significant snowfall later tomorrow in the North of England, N Wales and the borders and not just on high ground.

Well said Neil, waiting with baited breath!

Quite. It doesn't take a seasoned model watcher to talk about what the operational model runs are showing and formulate a prognosis. A seasoned model watcher will talk about what the operational models and their ensemble set are showing and the potential for changes in the output given the variations intra-ensemble and extra-model.

If you call "no snow for most of lowland UK before end of January" then of course you'll most likely be right. That's playing the percentages, not model analysis and there's no kudos in claiming you are "correct", at least not IMO.

I've just deleted a couple of posts in here which had little if anything to do with model output.

Please, no more personal digs at other members. And no more posts please from anyone writing off the rest of this month. This thread has been of a very good quality up until now and I don't want to see it spolied by spats between members and posts which have little if anything to do with the available model output.

Thanks.

I can't see this 18c/19c being reached as my old mate K is hoping for , it's still looking like several degrees short

Not in Witney mate

Get your brolly out

The last week of December could scupper the chances of a record CET

It was actually 82/83 that was the strong El Nino Winter in the early 80's. That winter had an average (and stormy) December. An exeptionally mild January. And a cold February (with easterly winds and quite a lot of snow mid-month) And of course there was also a famous cold spring/hot summer combination in 1983 as well.

Not sure Marcus. GW is projecting we'll still be at 9.3 on Christmas Day. That means we have to lose over 1c in the last week of the month to retain the old December record... That is possible if we had a potent cold spell, but with the Atlantic like it is and no signs of blocking at all, it would seem unlikely...

Personally I think December 2015 is going to take the record.

I always had a feeling something extreme was going to happen this Winter (because of the El Nino and also a few other unusual things which I discussed in my winter updates) So I'm not overly surprised that we look to be on our way to a new December record...

The question is, what else do we have in store over the next six months? 82-83 and 97-98 (people forget that after the summer-like February in 1998 there was a wintry and very wet April) show us that extremes of mild AND cold and wet AND dry are possible with these "Super Nino's" 

Basically, anything could happen in the next few months and I'd not be surprised if more record warm months occur but equally I'd not be surprised if there's a very wintry spell in there at some point as well (perhaps more likely in Spring?)

Probably haven't been watching the models for as long as some on here, but I know that when you see the deep blues and purples all across the very Northern Hemisphere and no Russian High to speak of, then it is as bad as it can be going for cold prospects.

Thanks

That's a blow Gav

Looks like some disruption to the polar vortex long term:

Not a SSW event, but the cold temperatures have become more asymmetrical and one can envisage that this does become an SSW. Anyway its a small hope for a cold January. I mean we have had a frigid December and March in recent years; maybe this is the year we get a frigid January?

Yeh I'm not convinced either, but we can dream on.

A very accurate summary

Here's a snapshot at 168 from ECM:

Originally Posted by: Stone Cold

a few years ago , I remember the  4 months of TOTAL zonality and massive floods.  Not a single northerly from november to end of feb

its the same pattern folks

I was astounded then, be prepared to be shocked again....

I do not recall a winter ever being totally zonal.  I would have thought this would be an extreme exception.  2 years ago in the very stormy winter of 2013/14 we had a blocked spell leading from November well into December.  If you remember, that winter was different from what we are seeing as projected for the coming weeks in that the vortex was stubbornly clinging to the area around Hudson Bay  towards Greenland.  This created the sharp temperature gradient on the Eastern seaboard of the States and Canada that was spinning one storm after another towards us.  To my eyes the models at the moment  are showing a somewhat more  random vortex with large chunks more often or not to the north or north east of us.  The outcome of course will be similar for us cold lovers ( especially in the south)  but with respect what we are seeing here is not going to put the Somerset levels under water, and nor is it going to pile one storm after another into South Western Britain as we saw then.  

Good morning. Does anybody know what's happened to the 'UK precipitation type' option in GFS this morning? Instead of the normal blues & pinks, there are sort of white bubbles/ patches all over it. Is it a new presentation format?

Bertie

I've not seen the ECM ENS but am guessing the op run is off the scale for mildness again. Parts of the south keep + 850 temps throughout the next 10 days if correct. I'm not even sure whether that's happened before at this time of the year! 

Yes it is.

If you're using the web site (rather than app) you can select UK Precip Type P to view the old format. I'm not entirely happy with the new format which uses white shading but I got a lot of feedback and found most people preferred it.