At midnight I doubt it

I wouldn't discount maxima in the teens for some.

Here you go. Bear in mind at this time of year if we manage to get a ridge for any length of time it'll lead to colder conditions than the 850s will suggest! After the next few days the mild air does indeed look like returning with a vengeance as the break in the zonal flow we currently have collapses away SE'wards.

Last night's ECM control run again showed a typical zonal picture but not one of highs pegged in double figures for days on end.

NB, this is the mildest set of ECM ensembles I've seen for December; usually there are a few colder options but as with November they're now entirely absent. It'll be interesting to see the 15-day charts later!

Good analysis Retron.Posting the NAO observed and  forecast.Shows to date for December NAO around 1.5 but set to fallback in the forecast.Am I allowed to say that METO has written off December from a cold blocking point of view and in its contingency forecast talks of  an NAO + circulation persisting until at least until mid  Jan.

For all the talk there has been about a possible record mild December, it would appear to me that if the operational model runs I'm looking at are right, the best chance of this will be over southern parts of England. From what I can see, the chances of this happening in Scotland look to me no more than 50:50 and the models do seem to be trying to send the jet a bit further south as we get nearer to Christmas.

Unless the models are proved wrong, I doubt that it will end up as a record mild December nationwide.

It's all about the MILD at the moment and that theme continues from the Norwegian Met too.

The above is for Xmas week.

In a nut shell, December will be a very mild month for much of N and W Europe. In fact, probably for much of the N Hemisphere winter zones. There is simply a lack of cold air. The skiing is suffering in the Alps and the outlook is bleak too.

Well that GFS 6z suggests a chance is still there to break the December daily temp record next Thursday. If we can get a bit of sun and Foehn effect it would be feasible to break 18.3C.
Longer term there is still no end in sight and to be honest it's quite exciting knowing that the December CET could be smashed to smithereens. It actually does make fascinating model watching.

Tweaked those again so you'll see a mottled pattern and white to pink shading indicating increasing intensity. Today's 6z run shows this.