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Polar Low
13 December 2015 19:05:53

Indeed and also in the short term outrageous warmth.


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions


 


 



The warmth over Europe and here is crazy . We are going to smash the cet record to smithereens . Records In Europe must be about to be smashed as well.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Ally Pally Snowman
13 December 2015 19:06:41


These ECM charts are just getting more and more extreme. I simply can't believe they will verify that warm because if they do surely we are looking for a record daily December temperature somewhere in the UK next week. I saw the Channel Islands were perilously close to an 18c on an earlier GFS run. I still can't rule that out. 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 


The charts are just weird now, never seen anything like it before for mid/late December.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Shropshire
13 December 2015 19:07:41
Hells bells, the ECM is horrendous, it would take weeks to reverse the position shown in the latter frames surely ?
From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Ally Pally Snowman
13 December 2015 19:08:12


Indeed and also in the short term outrageous warmth.


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Not just here either look at Germany madness!


 


 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
JACKO4EVER
13 December 2015 19:25:38
If some of the output *does* verify then indeed I wouldn't be surprised to see some date records go- and German temperatures are indeed amazing. It's the water we could do without, and sadly extreme mildness at this time of year is often accompanied by rain. Cooler North Atlantic air over Scotland and warm Iberian air pumped up from the south is a recipe for disaster- the government must have contingency plans on standby and I truly worry for the flood hit north west.
David M Porter
13 December 2015 19:31:22

If some of the output *does* verify then indeed I wouldn't be surprised to see some date records go- and German temperatures are indeed amazing. It's the water we could do without, and sadly extreme mildness at this time of year is often accompanied by rain. Cooler North Atlantic air over Scotland and warm Iberian air pumped up from the south is a recipe for disaster- the government must have contingency plans on standby and I truly worry for the flood hit north west.

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Indeed. Let's hope for the sake of those in Cumbria and others who were affected by last weekend's floods that the models alter to some extent in the coming days.


The pattern will change at some point and my guess is that when it does we'll know all about it; let's just hope that it does so before any more damage is done.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
moomin75
13 December 2015 19:35:05


 


Indeed. Let's hope for the sake of those in Cumbria and others who were affected by last weekend's floods that the models alter to some extent in the coming days.


The pattern will change at some point and my guess is that when it does we'll know all about it; let's just hope that it does so before any more damage is done.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

My guess is it will alter just in time for spring and summer when we see a whacking great Greenland high, southerly tracking jet and copious snowfall and heavy rain for months on end. 😂

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
JACKO4EVER
13 December 2015 19:38:33


 


Indeed. Let's hope for the sake of those in Cumbria and others who were affected by last weekend's floods that the models alter to some extent in the coming days.


The pattern will change at some point and my guess is that when it does we'll know all about it; let's just hope that it does so before any more damage is done.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


David, I hope your right. However I have a feeling there is a pattern change in about 7 to 10 days time- but what to is the question. I think, if I were a betting man, it would be to stormy cool zonality as the most likely, out of the frying pan and into the fire for the poor folks in the flood ravaged areas. It does not look too promising at all. 

Solar Cycles
13 December 2015 19:58:18


 


Indeed. Let's hope for the sake of those in Cumbria and others who were affected by last weekend's floods that the models alter to some extent in the coming days.


The pattern will change at some point and my guess is that when it does we'll know all about it; let's just hope that it does so before any more damage is done.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

We won't see as many posts from JackO and Moomin.


 


 

Gooner
13 December 2015 20:00:27


True but where I am the whole winter was a write off. Not a flake of snow fell IMBY last winter. Marcus takes great delight at winding me up over the Witney snow desert, when 20 miles up the road he is buried in the stuff. 😂


Ah well, if he's an Arsenal fan he deserves a little bit of happiness eh? 😝


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Don't need the weather to cheer me up matey , look at the PL table


Its quite bizarre how localised snow can be , I know we have had a decent covering at times when Witney has missed the lot.


Mark H found it hard to believe when I used to say we've had 6" of snow

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


moomin75
13 December 2015 20:01:08


We won't see as many posts from JackO and Moomin.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Fair comment SC. If I give it I must be prepared to take it too. You definitely won't be hearing much from me in January. I will give you all a break! I'll probably see more snow in Australia than I do here! I actually did experience my only "white Christmas" in Australia in 2000. Ok it was a hailstorm but it deposited 3 inches of hail on Christmas Day afternoon, it was quite surreal. 😀

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gooner
13 December 2015 20:02:34

Hells bells, the ECM is horrendous, it would take weeks to reverse the position shown in the latter frames surely ?

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Days  actually

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Solar Cycles
13 December 2015 20:02:51


Fair comment SC. If I give it I must be prepared to take it too. You definitely won't be hearing much from me in January. I will give you all a break! I'll probably see more snow in Australia than I do here! I actually did experience my only "white Christmas" in Australia in 2000. Ok it was a hailstorm but it deposited 3 inches of hail on Christmas Day afternoon, it was quite surreal. 😀


Originally Posted by: moomin75 

It doesn't bother me moomin as your opinion is as valid as anyones else's and up to now you've been right.

Gooner
13 December 2015 20:03:55


 


David, I hope your right. However I have a feeling there is a pattern change in about 7 to 10 days time- but what to is the question. I think, if I were a betting man, it would be to stormy cool zonality as the most likely, out of the frying pan and into the fire for the poor folks in the flood ravaged areas. It does not look too promising at all. 


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Stormy according to Matt Taylor

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gusty
13 December 2015 20:23:39

If some of the output *does* verify then indeed I wouldn't be surprised to see some date records go- and German temperatures are indeed amazing. It's the water we could do without, and sadly extreme mildness at this time of year is often accompanied by rain. Cooler North Atlantic air over Scotland and warm Iberian air pumped up from the south is a recipe for disaster- the government must have contingency plans on standby and I truly worry for the flood hit north west.

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Great post. Incredibly mild times at the moment. The synoptic set up spells a potential orographic nightmare for places that simply cannot cope with any more hardship.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
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PFCSCOTTY
13 December 2015 20:37:27

[quote=Ally Pally Snowman;742205]


 


Not just here either look at Germany madness!


 


In actual fact I think 20 or 21c has been recorded in Germany in December in recent years? So not that record breaking.  Of more concern is the reality that as the days begin to lengthen after Christmas, it always feels like another winter has passed us by, at least for us southerners. As any frost or snow rarely hangs around for long after mid jan. 

Whether Idle
13 December 2015 20:41:00


 


Great post. Incredibly mild times at the moment. The synoptic set up spells a potential orographic nightmare for places that simply cannot cope with any more hardship.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Indeed Steve, I made the point a couple of pages back.  My mean is at 11.0, uncharted territory for Mid  December.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
festivalking
13 December 2015 20:45:00
As we are stuck with the euro high which seemingly dictating the weather, can anyone describe what synoptics we should be looking for to blast it away. Are there any historical charts that can show this?
Dousland, Dartmoor 206 m/asl
Its only going to snow when Gibby says so.
David M Porter
13 December 2015 20:50:06

As we are stuck with the euro high which seemingly dictating the weather, can anyone describe what synoptics we should be looking for to blast it away. Are there any historical charts that can show this?

Originally Posted by: festivalking 


I'm not sure when it is that the El Nino is expected to peak, but maybe once it starts to decline in strength we may see the Euro High start to deflate to some extent.


FWIW, going by my recollection from this time last year I think that pressure was fairly high over central & southern Europe back then as well.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Hippydave
13 December 2015 21:10:47

Pretty boring set of runs if it's cold you're after - stonking runs if you're looking for a possible record (England) CET. The longer the extremely mild stuff is progged throughout the reliable part of the run, the less time there is for any cold changes to appear and drag the CET to merely 'exceptional' As any cool downs that appear in FI shrink or disappear as they get to the reliable, any cooler signal that may scupper the CET can be taken with a pinch of salt imo.


As other have said the mild will undoubtably be accompanied by a fair bit of water and given the persistence of the pattern further flooding for some seems likely.


Other than the rain/mild bit the massively tedious lack of sunshine (down here) is remarkable too. It seems like we've only had 1 sunny day in the last 3-4 weeks, with the rest being almost uniformly gray and dreary. A continuation of the mild, moisture laden pattern is unlikely to change the drabness


 

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
The Beast from the East
13 December 2015 21:21:40
Ive probably looked at the charts this December less often than at any point since i got the internet. Says it all really.
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
KevBrads1
13 December 2015 21:25:46

As we are stuck with the euro high which seemingly dictating the weather, can anyone describe what synoptics we should be looking for to blast it away. Are there any historical charts that can show this?

Originally Posted by: festivalking 


Looking at past strong El Niños, February 1983 is an example of a significant change, so it possible. One concern if you want to forget winter and move on, as I mentioned the other day, all strong winter El Niños since the war, the April was at least on cool side and contained a notable wintry episode. 

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Gooner
13 December 2015 22:47:53

V Windy / Stormy ( in places ) looks on the cards once we get through this week

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


some faraway beach
13 December 2015 23:24:10

The 12z ECM op is the warmest of all 52 runs in the ensemble by day9:


http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html


 

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
roger63
14 December 2015 07:31:41

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0


GFS leading us up the garden path again.This evolution is very much an outlier.

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