Must even now be some doubt about the Xmas cool down. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

In all my time on here, I don't think I've ever seen such despondency!
What has happened in the science of NWP that I have missed that now let's us accurately predict out to 6 weeks?

i don't know about smashing records,  but I think I can hear a stuck record 😴

Originally Posted by: John p 

Still looks reasonable for places like Aviemore in the Highlands?

Originally Posted by: Hendon Snowman 

Forgive me for commenting on the mildness of the models in the MODEL thread. Perhaps you need to take a break if you can't accept people commenting on what is being shown and replying to a very good post from Brian showing the majority of a MODEL ensemble showing it.

The only stuck record my friend is from you complaining about my commenting on what I am seeing. If you don't like it, get out and enjoy something else. 😂

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Good idea.  When are you off to Oz?  I'll come back then. 

Originally Posted by: John p 

Well perhaps that's not so bad SC. Quite like the thought of 19c in February. If we are going to be mild we may as well smash records. Summer in February will be nice even if it means winter arrives in June.

Back to the models. Those postage stamps Brian posted show a large majority mild and only one that looks particularly cold so confidence must be growing.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

In all my time on here, I don't think I've ever seen such despondency!
What has happened in the science of NWP that I have missed that now let's us accurately predict out to 6 weeks?

i don't know about smashing records,  but I think I can hear a stuck record 😴

Originally Posted by: John p 

I count 12 out of 22 being mild for MBY - hardly a large majority. Think it's that sort of broadly inaccurate wording that is winding people up.

Originally Posted by: bluejosh 

One thing I've noticed with the GEFS is in the 7 to 16 day range they tend to over amplify upstream and this can often lead to cooler looking zonal flows as more PMT air is pushed across NW Europe. As the time approaches the flow often seems to be slightly flatter with more of a south westerly component. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I count 12 out of 22 being mild for MBY - hardly a large majority. Think it's that sort of broadly inaccurate wording that is winding people up.

Originally Posted by: bluejosh 

Hi All, been monitoring the site for years but only just got round to sorting my registration!

Looking through the charts, this really is a depressing one for me!

Making it worse for me is that fact that im due to go Skiing in the southern Italian Alps (Sauze D'oulx) 17th of January and I just cant see this HP being shifted and them receiving any snow!

Originally Posted by: Graham Swanton 

The worry is that such misrepresentation (delivered with undisguised glee by certain posters) could dissuade the really qualified/experienced/clued-up members from posting.

I've already witnessed a couple of incidents where extremely well-respected TWO stalwarts have been dragged in to a near-flame war simply by pointing out that the NWP isn't actually showing the scenarios that some 'mildies' are claiming.

Seriously, the vast majority of members on here are 'enthusiastic rank amateurs' at best, with only a handful possessing serious meteorological knowledge. There's perhaps a dozen/dozen-and-a-half really knowledgeable members, with only half that amount posting regularly. For those who've been around here a long time, you'll remember other really knowledgeable members who just don't bother anymore, in most cases worn down by constant sniping & trolling.

Without the really knowledgeable members, this place is next to useless. All that would be left is about 20 argumentative twunts (me included) banging heads in the Climate Forum or Up In Arms.

And before anyone starts, nobody is trying to stifle debate, nobody is trying to shut mildies up (even though they're weird). Let's just have informative discussion around model output, and leave personal agendas for other forums/threads.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Even the Azores can't escape the wet and windy theme this winter:

Satellite Loop

Article On The Storm

There's talk of gusts to hurricane force.

Yet here in Southern England the lack of heavy rain is becoming a talking point, and the winds have yet to gust above 50 mph. That's a displaced Azores High into Europe for you! A huge contrast to the dismal conditions that have been frequent up north.

This leads nicely into the dominant theme of the model output these days; a strong Euro High with storm activity tending to pass just north of the UK in the nearer term, with a possible trend southward later as the polar vortex displaces toward the Atlantic sector.

I fear that as the vortex battles against the Euro High - the latter continuing to be supported by enhanced subtropical jet activity in the Atlantic (that's what displaces the Azores High) - there could be some serious wind events. ECM hinted at this on it's 00z run for day 8 as a potent shortwave feature races through and brings some very strong wind gusts to the central band of the UK for a time.

In the very short term, tomorrow may finally break the 'heavy rain drought' in these parts, as for once a frontal system isn't degraded to sporadic light rain and drizzle by the Euro High. Could be some proper autumnal storm conditions for a time, albeit a bit tame wind-wise (30-40 mph gusts).

Meanwhile, on the far side of the hemisphere;

930 mb Low Entering Bering Sea

That's a phenomenal system! Peak gusts well beyond hurricane force.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

The worry is that such misrepresentation (delivered with undisguised glee by certain posters) could dissuade the really qualified/experienced/clued-up members from posting.

I've already witnessed a couple of incidents where extremely well-respected TWO stalwarts have been dragged in to a near-flame war simply by pointing out that the NWP isn't actually showing the scenarios that some 'mildies' are claiming.

Seriously, the vast majority of members on here are 'enthusiastic rank amateurs' at best, with only a handful possessing serious meteorological knowledge. There's perhaps a dozen/dozen-and-a-half really knowledgeable members, with only half that amount posting regularly. For those who've been around here a long time, you'll remember other really knowledgeable members who just don't bother anymore, in most cases worn down by constant sniping & trolling.

Without the really knowledgeable members, this place is next to useless. All that would be left is about 20 argumentative twunts (me included) banging heads in the Climate Forum or Up In Arms.

And before anyone starts, nobody is trying to stifle debate, nobody is trying to shut mildies up (even though they're weird). Let's just have informative discussion around model output, and leave personal agendas for other forums/threads.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Very good post Saint and I guess I am one of those enthusiastic amateurs....although believe it or not I am absolutely NOT a mildie in any way. I absolutely detest this weather with a passion. Give me anything but this and I would be happy. It's disgusting filth of a weather pattern.

Also, although an amateur, I am in the process of studying an Environmental Sciences degree with OU, ALBEIT only in my first module so I am yes an amateur, but trying to become less of one. I am more specifically studying the wider science of Climatology and Environmental Sciences, but have not got into the heart of that subject matter yet as module one is very much introductory.

Maybe this will mean in time I can start posting some more considered expert opinions as some of the very best on here.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I was deliberately not referring to any individuals - and if it makes you feel any better, your meteorological knowledge is many times greater than my very limited one.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

In all my time on here, I don't think I've ever seen such despondency!
What has happened in the science of NWP that I have missed that now let's us accurately predict out to 6 weeks?

i don't know about smashing records,  but I think I can hear a stuck record 😴

Originally Posted by: John p 

There's a ongoing, huge El Nino going on - there's excess energy (warmth) in the atmosphere and it's effect are only just taking hold. We're also in a spell of weather that has pushed warm air well east and north of us. Something very similar is going on in N America. It takes weeks for a cold spell to happen/establish here (if at all) in such circumstances.

Also, I remember 1987, even back then the models picked up the signal for serious cold well in advance. Serious cold spells can often be seen well in advance. Nothing like that is happening atm.

Winters like this one tend to persist - 1974/5, 1988/9 come to mind. Given that the El Nino and the 'you know what man made effect no one want to know about' are (short term and long term) driving global temperatures up I don't see any reason at all to expect a cold month this winter, though I don't rule out a coldish spell at some point.

Might I be wrong? Yup, that's the fun of weather but I think the fundamentals are as I describe an i fear the models will continue to reflect that.

Sorry, just what I think and I know such views are unpopular so I wont post them again to this thread.

Originally Posted by: Devonian