So the unsettled and unseasonably mild theme continues for the time being. The question now is for how much longer. Many areas, especially in the NW, could do with a good dry spell, be it mild or cold.

Usual rules folks.

Blimey 52 pages in 11 days..........................god help the mods and Brian if we get any 'proper' cold weather

That after it was predicted by someone that the last thread would last for the rest of the meteorogical winter! Oh well....

Indeed

You have handled it very well

This would be very welcome

 a poke from nose lovely split like 8 this morning

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=1

Scandy high, will it undercut?

No lol...

On topic, there's an interesting trend emerging for the turn of the year, which while not particularly cold at face value will certain make for more interesting chart watching gong forwards with two successive GFS runs showing significant WAA to the west of a large Sceuro high. This should serve to watching to see if any ridge can link with one over the Arctic and that could bring about the significant pattern change we are all seeking.

To coin a phrase from previous winters, it would be very much a case of "patience grasshopper" but perhaps the middle of January onwards will bring about an immense change from what we have seen so far. The stereotypical "El Nino" winter of two halves maybe.

Which I wouldn't rule out the day after I've flown these shores.

Definitely far more interesting now though. We could be rolling a "double six" as far as weather enthusiasts are concerned with this record breaking, now interesting and intriguing December followed by a sharp change in the new year. 😀

GFS 12z is an exercise in pointlessness for UK cold.  LoL. Good for Greece though

Cheers Marcus.

Thanks Kieren.

What I would say here is that even though I had to delete a handful of posts from the last thread at one point, the quality of discussion was on the whole very good, even though feelings ran a bit high at times! No worries though.

I've been a mod since the end of 2009 and in that time, I've seen some model threads turn into a right rabble at this time of year when the weather & model output hasn't been what most people want to see. I have also seen model threads be locked early in the past; this often happened back in the days when Codge, Ian Brown, SWZ and other such idiots used to almost single handedly destroy threads. Thankfully that hasn't happened for a long time.

 You do a very good job David Still miss YD he was a clever lad shame he let it run away from him

See things have moved a long a bit since I was last in here. With the polar vortex continue to weaken, now we are actually seeing some cold charts at the surface which is icing on the cake really.

A cut off low developing on Boxing Day?

The two things we need to hope for are:

(a) This is the start of a gradual trend away from the recent mild & wet pattern, and(b) If so, this theme is maintained as we go through the weekend and into next week.

Given the 6 weeks or so of rubbish we've endured since early November, I'm not going to raise my hopes too much just yet. However if there is to be a change it will need to commence from somewhere.

If we want what the ECM shows to happen then it just shows how bad the position is.

What happened to the warming event that people were talking about for esrly January, doesn't seem to be on according to the other side, I've noticed Steve Murr and the Jam Tamara woman don't seem to be on there anymore.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Its at 240h I know ,but ECM would be very good  if it comes off.Signs or height rise to the north,HP riging NW and LP looking as is  it may run SE and undercut.

Its a good chart but we've been here before with Ecm day 10 charts. We're still 2 or 3 weeks away from any serious cold at least all the ensembles at the moment are shocking.