This is J F F before people say " thats miles away " be amusing if our Winter started in March

This has just changed to this mornings run and Fairplay Doc there is a cold cluster now just before New year. Some hope perhaps?

http://www.knmi.nl/nederland-nu/weer/waarschuwingen-en-verwachtingen/ensemble-verwachting-detail

Much talk about pattern change but really any change should it occur would take us from very mild south westerlies to mild southerlies (maybe a brief mild south easterly) then back again.

potential high pressure to the east will lead us nowhere and just prolong the very mild weather.

The only way out of this now is the collapse of the Euro High and the introduction of colder weather from the north west.

As this isn't really modelled anywhere I think a continuation of the mild weather to January is pretty much nailed on.

People quote examples of mild Decembers followed by cold Januaries but I can't think of any winter when an exceptionally mild November/December was followed by a cold January or February.

This winter feels very much like 1974/75, 1988/89 and 1997/98 and I expect the same outcome with cold weather confined to March and April.

Andy

Pattern Matching never works and never will imho Andy

March and April of 1975 would be much appreciated

April 1989 would also be most welcome

Interesting for Xmas Day. If you look at the Met Office forecast for London, the max/min temps are 12C/10C:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?tab=map&map=Rainfall&fcTime=1359961200

But only a quarter of the ensemble runs are offering anything as high as those values, with the median high around 8C.

A seasonal feel at least for Xmas Day

But we know Andy is right. When has an oppressively mild December ever been followed by a decent January?

We will have to wait until February at the earliest and even then we need to pray for a big SSW to change the picture.

I believe you may be in the wrong thread? 

The GFS 06z op run also hints at signs of a pattern change. Perhaps it is a blip but I still think it is worth discussion. Whether it even leads to a wintry conclusion if it does materialise is another matter entirely.

A bomb into Scotland towards the end of the year, very different to the 0z and deep in FI

To be honest a mild December in the last 20 years or so, at least to my thoughts, has never been followed by a cold Jan except perhaps 2013, and there have been plenty of mild Decembers. 

A rare sight .......................a Northerly , albeit brief

A light hearted J F F post ....

Plenty of spread in the London ecm ensembles now.Dont know if we are in for a pattern change,but with the ensembles spread like they are there must be a good chance.

The control is in agreement with the OP

GEFS6z update again looks pretty innocuous but we'll see.

The GEFS ensembles have a reasonable number of ENS showing this pattern.Effectively its standoff between HP to the east/or south east and the Atlantic zonal flow lows.UK remains on the mild side for most ENS with HP finally being pushed away SE.

However be of good cheer with HP developing in the Scandi area there is always a slight chance of it  digging in.

Looking at the ECM 00z T+144, it looked for a moment as if synoptics were lining up nicely for an exciting change: -5 uppers seemingly heading UK-wards, and secondary lows or troughs skirting the one N of Scotland. Why do those troughs not sink S'wards in the N'lies? What is the energy that completely wipes this out by 168? - is it all down to that Azores low?

With these forecasted blocks to the East, 9 times out of ten in my experience it gets pushed away and flattened by the jet back into a Euro high, giving us another sustained spell of Atlantic westerlies. To me it looks like this is what's going to happen this time, especially as the jet looks strong . Hope I'm wrong.

Looking at the NAEFS it is astonishing how persistent these extreme mild temperatures are. All of Europe is well above average for the next 16 days. This month looks likely to break lots of records.

Checking out the behaviour of that tropical convection that looks so important for January's prospects, it seems to have progressed east a couple of days faster than most of the models had, and is also a little stronger in terms of the 'MJO' signal associated with it (remember it's actually a kelvin wave this time around - similar to the MJO but faster moving).

I suspect the models are trying to treat it like an MJO event when this isn't really the case, hence the projected movement being too slow.

Should the movement continue to be faster and without losing much of any amplification, then the ridge to the east should tend to be more resilient in future GFS/GEFS output for example. ECM already seems to be there in terms of what I expect to see, which may in fact be a result of it's usual over-amplification bias in the 6-10 day range. Perhaps this time it will work in the model's favour.

Certainly the ECM day 10 is an eye-catching chart in terms of what I'm tempted to call 'vortex buggering':

This is a beauty of a chart in terms of generating stratospheric wave breaks and also has hints of a precursor pattern for a SSW event. Key features are the prominent ridge extending north from near the UK, and the deep Aleutian trough (on the far side of the hemisphere from us, between Asia and Alaska). That little Arctic High is a nice bonus too.

I expect that GFS hasn't been sharpening the Atlantic trough enough in it's recent operational runs. The 00z wasn't far away but was undone by the bombing out of that storm system within.

Speaking of bombing out storms, that really is a vicious storm that the 06z op throws at us in 11 days time - hopefully the trough will hold back further west and we'll be spared such dangerous conditions:

I agree - see my posts from last week.

Never say never, but I think the more "seasoned " campaigners can see where this one is likely to be headed.

An impressively warm chart from the 12 z GFS with the High sitting over Europe.

I'm almost getting to like this mild weather.  If its not too windy and it is sunny like today its pretty amazing really, and very useable!

Its not 'that' warm

Beautifully surreal today. To witness a plumey sky on the solstice as darkness fell at 4pm is just incredible. 15-17c widely today.

A 10c CET is not out of the question if the above chart verifies for a couple of days.