All this mild weather has made me think about hot summers and heat waves. The three numbers above refer to temperature barriers which I would love to see breached. Let me explain:

20 - the first month to record a CET of 20.0C or higher. July 2006 has come the closest with 19.7C but the amazing heat wave over France in 2015 (so near and yet so far) makes me think that we will get our turn eventually.

30 - the first month that an official weather station records an average maximum of 30.0C or more. I think this might be the hardest one to breach. Cambridge recorded an average maximum of 28.3C in July 2006, and AFAIK that is the highest monthly average on record so far. So it is quite a big jump to reach 30.0C.

40 - the first time an official station records 40.0C or more. This should be do-able. Remember the 1-day wonder plume this year that brought a temperature of 36.7C to Heathrow on July 1st? This was with partly cloudy skies too. And we all remember August 10th 2003!

So, does anyone think these barriers will be breached within the next 10 or 20 years? I must admit I do prefer hot weather over cold, so from my point of view, it would be fantastic if any of these things happened in the near future.

We've had one-month periods with higher mean values than July 2006, but never in a single calendar month. I believe the June-Jul 1976 heatwave topped it, as did the Jul-Aug 1995 heatwave.

July 2006 had a mean max of 26.0C in Leeds but 24 July - 23 August 1995 had a mean max of 27C. It also had an overall mean of 20.1C, so even up here it's definitely possible to get a month with a mean of 20C or higher, we just need the heat to fall perfectly within a calendar month. July 2006 came closest, all the others had heat spread between two months.

 Me too Nick.

Iam amazed there has not been a cet in July of 20c+ even the amazing Julys of `76,83,95 and 2006 failed by a whisker.The problem is the night time minimums get too low ,we would need the average minimum to be at least 15c along with an average max of 26c (that's achievable). A set up like we have had so far this month might give us the best chance of a 20c+ July. Out of your 20/30/40 I think this one is most likely to happen,imo. If it does you might see somewhere in late July hit the magic 40c.

An average maximum of 30c might be bridge too far but imby during the legendry summer of 76 we went over 3 weeks where the max hit 30c+ everyday.

Here's my chance ranking:

(Most likely first)

40C within next 3 years (short term event- no sustained conditions necessarily required)

20C mean within next 5 years (July 1983, Aug 1995, July 2006 showing a temporal tendency)

30C mean max: not in the next decade (too hard to get the dates just right).

The science behind it: there is none.

Hahaha Weatherfan2 I like your predictions. Not sure I like the June and August CETs though

LeedsLad123 - I didn't realise that Leeds has recorded an average monthly max of >20C. So that looks like possibly the most likely barrier to break.

I would LOVE to see a summer that beats 1976 for heat, drought and sunshine. I have only the vaguest of memories of that one as I was only 5 years old. 1995 is the one that has come closest and that was 20 years ago now.