It seems we're on course to lose the shortwave battle days 5-7 which is a shame. If so, the next question is to what extent high heights can hold on somewhere over western Eurasia and how far poleward - the more so, the better for interfering with the vortex.
I've long been of the mindset that breaking away from a generally zonal pattern will take until at least mid-Jan and to be honest this now looks to be at the optimistic end of the scale. Before then it looks like polar maritime air from the northwest may be the only real candidate for bringing the temps down significantly - and I wouldn't be surprised to see that idea scuppered by LP development to the SW nearer the time.
So... not much to get excited about at the moment aside from the pretty much inevitable December temp records for E&W (inc. CET).
Worth pointing out, though, that ECM's 00z op produced for day 8 what may be the most intense non-tropical low I've ever seen in terms of the pressure gradient and compact nature of the storm:
At the 850 hpa level for that time it shows sustained wind speeds of around 130 mph so near the surface it could be more than 70 mph on the SE side with gusts to over 100.
It seems unlikely that the extreme temp. gradient (+5*C to -5*C in the space of barely 100 miles at the 850 hpa level) will manage to be exploited to that extent - but not impossible! Of course even if it is the low has a good chance of staying west of the UK - but I imagine the Irish will be watching the potential closely.
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser