Sounds a post of desperation I think but you could well be right. I see little light on the horizon to lighten the mood with the ECM 10 day Mean maintaining the patterning at Day 10 and no doubt beyond.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Originally Posted by: GIBBY 

Sounds a post of desperation I think but you could well be right. I see little light on the horizon to lighten the mood with the ECM 10 day Mean maintaining the patterning at Day 10 and no doubt beyond.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

My full morning report can be read HERE 

Originally Posted by: GIBBY 

The mean really isn't the be all and end all, although I know you like them. They generally show the climatological norm at that range anyway, it takes something really special to show anything different.

Here's a more detailed view - it's no surprise that yet again the op was at the top of the pile by the end of its run!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Seriously Martin? Of course Andy's pessimistic guesswork may be correct but with the massive range of options across the northern latitudes by day 10 on the ECM output such conclusions simply cannot be drawn from the ECM chart. It is an option but only one of many. 

There are times when the models display high confidence levels (statistically), this is not one of them http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/ecmwf/graphe_ens3.php?mode=2&x=&y=&run=0&lat=57.125506072874494&lon=-2.169811320754718&runpara=0

If it turns out Andy's (and others') two month forecasts based on 10 days of selected data are correct I'm sure they will be lauded as excellent forecasts but they are no more than guesswork based on continuation of the status quo.

Failure to recognise probability and to go with the most likely option as the only one is risky even if you do end up with the "right answer".

Mind you it's a win win and an easy option isn't it? Forecast mild and it's mild and you can say "I told you so", forecast mild and it turns cold and no one cares that you were wrong! (And forecast or discuss anything else and you're labelled as unrealistic, naive, immature or a cold ramper regardless of the analysis*). 

*These labels are all from personal experience in past years. 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Bert, I think the changes are from one regime to another or as low pressure systems move close by then pass leaving more "stable conditions." (Hence a decrease in uncertainty). It seems to be at times of transition of some sort we get the largest range (unsurprisingly I guess!) Boxing Day is a good example.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I think despondency in the short term is fine but with so much uncertainty in the medium term writing of winter would be very foolhardy, lest we forget that the MetO GLOSEA5 model which has been consistent throughout this winter is going for flip to a more blocked pattern to become established from next month through to March.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

That is a 'precision' long fetch south westerly with high and low pressure systems perfectly aligned to produce for the UK exceptional warmth, wind and rain, if only the weather could send northerly or easterly winds at us with such precision!

I really don't see any sign of a pattern change I really don't, I would bet a months wages now that both January and February will be mild although maybe somewhat drier.

As in 1988/89 cold weather will probably arrive in April.

Andy

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 

But that's subject to change like anything else - I suspect the final coup de grace will be when the METO update their 3 monthly outlook and say that they expect these conditions to continue throughout the winter.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

I am sure you are correct about January - you just know it will be the case, since it invariably is. January is often the mildest UK month of what is laughingly termed winter in this damp spot on the Globe, in any case.

February may be a different matter - far too early to have a clue about that. Even the LRFs have suggested colder options in the later winter months, so who knows.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Don't give up hope. Since 2000, January has been the coldest of the winter months more often than it has been the warmest. It is often 2nd, however.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

So give up hope then? 

In any case, I can see how people might think January will turn out mild as well, but IMO February is too far away to call.

Originally Posted by: SJV 

This is getting daft now - multiple people writing off the whole of January before it's even begun!

Nobody has a clue what the weather will be like in two weeks time, let alone 5 and a half weeks (which is how far away the end of January is).

In fact, let's do an experiement. Here's the ECM mean chart for the 1st Jan, a chart much-beloved by some and one which I regard as nigh on useless. Let's see what the actual chart is like on the day - I reckon pressure will be higher to the NE than is shown here. Furthermore, there won't be such a long, generic high near the Azores... that's clearly a phantom based on more robust highs located in differing places.

(Edited as the previous auto-generated link name had "wa nk" in it - and that was censored by the forum!)

Originally Posted by: Retron 

(Edited as the previous auto-generated link name had "wa nk" in it - and that was censored by the forum!)

Originally Posted by: Retron 

But that's subject to change like anything else - I suspect the final coup de grace will be when the METO update their 3 monthly outlook and say that they expect these conditions to continue throughout the winter.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

This is getting daft now - multiple people writing off the whole of January before it's even begun!

Nobody has a clue what the weather will be like in two weeks time, let alone 5 and a half weeks (which is how far away the end of January is).

In fact, let's do an experiement. Here's the ECM mean chart for the 1st Jan, a chart much-beloved by some and one which I regard as nigh on useless. Let's see what the actual chart is like on the day - I reckon pressure will be higher to the NE than is shown here. Furthermore, there won't be such a long, generic high near the Azores... that's clearly a phantom based on more robust highs located in differing places.

(Edited as the previous auto-generated link name had "wa nk" in it - and that was censored by the forum!)

Originally Posted by: Retron 

But that's subject to change like anything else - I suspect the final coup de grace will be when the METO update their 3 monthly outlook and say that they expect these conditions to continue throughout the winter.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire