Good grief bingo forget that run

..and at 240 hours.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015122212/gem-0-240.png

Can't wait for the Hamlet model run tonight.  Me thinks there could be a change in mood. 

GFS 12z op run shows the very low heights over Greenland recovering a little as we go into early January. At the same time, developments to the north of Scandi look a tad interesting.

If Moomin is around, it will be interesting to read his take on this run, given that it was the 12z runs over successive days over the past month or so that seemingly formed the basis of his call for a record mild December, in some areas anyway.

Liking the 12z gfs run. Okay we don't get the cold but Russia and eastern Europe have got some cold 850s all the way through the run.Maybe we can tap into later on down the line. IF it all comes off of course.

I think the 12z's are generally paid more attention, as the others are less accurate. Taking the 'best of the bunch' approach.

Very wet GFS, no let up from westerlies. 8C and rain is even worse than 14c and rain. 

I was once asked by a high profile and well known TV forecaster to provision only 0z data for him. He was convinced it was more accurate than the rest. I pointed out that the marginal cost of making the 6z, 12z and 18z sets available too was very low and that statistically the differences are not major. 

The 1060mb Scandi high on GEM is clearly the only plausible solution. Put the rest in the bin. 

Sorry Q; I mean, since you said: If the wind direction of the flat side of the approaching low has any easterly component it will undercut.

You then said it was a pure southerly so it would be close. I was hoping there was the tiniest easterly component in the southerly-biased flow on the E side of the low you showed. So I was asking if there was any chance of an undercut as a result of this.

I also wondered if, being that close, it would be more of a struggle between the (hoped-for) undercutting low and the high, as it wasn't such a clear victory for the undercutting low. I wondered, in association with this, whether that might lead to the undercutting process being delayed at all, leading to a slower process.

You have now said very small easterly components succeed, making me wonder it some more.

Good grief battle of the giants on some of those

Panel view good grief

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=174

The control shows how close we are to getting the HP onto our shores

Incredibly mild ECM run, no change from there.

ECM op continues to be the Hamlet model this winter! Consistency is good if nothing else.

Hats off to GEM for pulling that one out of the, er, hat.

Hats on for the ECM run which is a very sombre affair. Overrunning the Scandi High is fair enough but to do it so quickly, limiting the wave action on the vortex so much? That's just harsh!

At least we're seeing some more interesting setups emerging in the far reaches of the GFS runs now, as it toys with the potential impacts of the MJO making it to the dateline (phases 7/8). The 12z op is a particularly fine example of the sort of dramatic poleward ridge that could be achieved, with blocking highs developing to our N and NW in response.

I suspect we'll as usual have to endure a few weeks of teasing runs as the model moves from A to B too quickly and has to allow for the inevitable complications - but at least that'll provide some entertainment on here!

Yes, GEM is pleasantly unexpected.  It would make for a great start to a review of the 2015/16 winter if that pattern took hold....

"As Big Ben rang in the New Year the first icy tentacles of Winter's grip were embracing the East Anglian coast." 

Back to reality, and as you say, some teasing and disappointment to come no doubt but a lot better than the Atlantic dominated mild and wet onslaught, epsecially for all those poor folk trying to dry out their homes and facing more of the same over the next few days.

It'll be interesting to see how the 12z runs perform over the coming days and whether or not what they show verifies. According to Moomin, it was these runs going back a number of weeks that he made his call for an exceptionally mild December on. At the time I struggles to understand where he was coming from given the usual variation in the general output, but maybe he's been onto something with this.

For example the ECM12Z looks like this 

With a clear westerly component this is going to fail. But compare to the GEM

There is a tiny barely perceptable easterly component, so that means its almost guaranteed to suceed. 

This rule is very robust, it is nearly always obeyed. Given that the winds are projected to be very close to southerly we should take that to mean uncertainty is high because the slightest shift could turn a W component to an E component.

The cold solution (within the next 2-3 weeks at any rate) remains very much the underdog, but it's heartening to see some tantalising glimpses of what could be. Hopefully the good perturbations will increase in number over the next several runs.

Atlantic domination continues tonight. Based on probability an easterly outbreak is no greater than 5%. Encouraging to see but unlikely. I shall continue to watch with interest and hope for such a change in the new year.