Nobody disputes the higher level of verification of the ECM op over the other models. But that's irrelevant to the subject under discussion.

You seem to misunderstand that the reason some of us never look at the 10-day ECM mean chart has nothing whatsoever to do with it being the ECM mean chart, but everything to do with it being an arithmetic mean, regardless of the model from which it has been calculated.

The ECM op could show 99% verification at 240 hrs, and the mean calculated from the arithmetic average of adding it to the other 50 runs in the ensemble would still be a waste of time. In fact it would be even more irrelevant.

No, it's totally impossible to forecast 10 days out. Of course that is the most likely pressure pattern, because that is the standard pressure pattern for this part of the world and has been throughout recorded history. But that's not a forecast, that's just using climatic probability.

It's like betting that the number on a roulette wheel is going to come up either red or black every single time. You'll be right most of the time, but you'll still lose the lot when zero comes up.

You are claiming then that a rock-solid W/SW flow can never change at any point in a season. In 10-days' time it will be the same, so it will be the same 10 days after that, and so on ad infinitum.

You can't have been living in Shropshire very long in that case, or anywhere else in the UK. And why do you bother hanging around the model output thread, unless you know your proposition can't be true, and you need the model output to guide you as to when it falls to pieces.

Very true .

Indeed and a very stormy control run that will flatten the daffs if nothing else will

These have been showing up a lot this past few days. Looks like its going to remain very mild - but severe gales now seem to be an added risk from now on.

Very sensible post David    but we have used a lot of pages up talking about 10 day means and pocket coins and such like do you remember the old the money? NO only joking guys you have to chuckle sometimes.

I say, steady on there old boy; like me, Shropshire may be doing just that- learning about this stuff. This is a great forum to learn from others- we're not all experts like your good self and we can't all make revelational posts. Some people learn simply through the receptive path of reading other people's wisdom, others learn by throwing forward conjecture and having it challenged, hopefully with objective explanation.

As for 'hanging around the thread' - is that what the thread's for? A quasi-teeno gathering point, like the corner of the local one-stop, designed to pump up the egos of the popular few? Give the chap a chance. It's been unremitting attack this afternoon.

The 12z GFS is rolling. Its still looking a very wintry affair for Shetland on Boxing Day .

His posts dont suggest that .

Some of his posts ( 99%) lack explanation.................or links, which is somewhat irritating ...........which im sure mine irritate some on here, we just have to accept that fact

Yes, but the explanation should come from you and the other experts, Gooner, because otherwise we don't get to develop our understanding and move on to make useful contributions to the thread later, thus giving back something for all the benefit we get from it.

As for the links, if that's a criterion for being accepted into the thread, I note he hasn't been on here that long and probably needs somebody to offer that wisdom.

Fair comment

OK this is interesting. Remember quantum's rule! 

If the wind direction of the flat side of the approaching low has any easterly component it will undercut.

If the wind direction has any westerly component it will push through.

This one looks like a pure southerly, this is going to be close.

Browsing through the posts in this thread its becoming clear that cold lovers will have to be very very patient for cold this winter.

I don`t understand much of the technical stuff but it is clear that the rest of Dec and the start of the new year look like being very unsettled and stormy as well as very mild. Its going to be well into January before we see any sign of a pattern change, if there is a pattern change at all, let alone an actual change.Its looking increasingly likely that the first half of the meterlogical winter 2015/16 could be one of,if not the warmest on record. Surely its exiting to see such records for winter warmth potentially being broken(smashed in the case of the Dec CET) rather than get despondant and irritated that there has been no cold yet.

There certainly appears to be more of a SE-NW angle of warm air advection on this run. Hopefully this will create high pressure a little further west over Scandinavia in the near future as well as throwing more energy south. 

This really could go either way.

HP is a tad nearer our shores on this run.........

Nevermind, we see that westerly component. Its going to push through.

This one was very close though. It would not take much of an upgrade. 

Compared to the 6z the LP is dragging its heels, if it goes any slower it will be pipped by the HP

Does it not at least have a skin of an E'ly component? Say, 175 degrees? If so, that close, would it undercut more slowly?

Polar votex is completely shattered.

I'm not quite sure what you mean. This is simply an empirical observation of mine, the ambiguous region between westerly and easterly non zero components is very small tiny easterly components succeed with a very high rate as westerlies fail with a very high rate.

Running a little late get under my son

The 12z GEM at 180 hours. Someone needs to invite the PV to a News Years Eve Party on Corsica 

GEM 240 hours..oh gosh .