its not just guess work, having closely observed UK winters for the last 50 years some experience is gained and I can tell you now that such exceptionally mild Decembers as we have now are always followed by a mild January and February.

Thats not pattern matching it's recognising the positive feed backs that are perpetuating the current mild weather are there likely continuation.

I would love to be proved wrong but I am not going to ignore 200 years of winter weather records that indicate a very mild December is followed by a mild January and February.

To ignore such clear data is plane daft.

Andy

tion.

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 

Possibly, but you have to consider the recent 'form' that I've been looking at. Its a bit like losing three or four nil every week for the last few weeks and saying, ah well it's a different game next week, could all change. It probably won't = because there's a reason for it.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

With all due respect Andy, you have ignored 200 years of records. You will not find a 100% match. 

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Trouble is going off past recent forms is that it can lead to some embarrassing extrapolations,  for instance, we were told back in 2008 that northerly winter blocking had become extinct, that we can't get a month with a CET below 3.0C.....

All these ideas were based on "recent form"

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Kev,

As pdiddy excellent post above demonstrates their is a very clear signal for very mild Decembers to be followed by a very mild January and a slightly cooler February, I am not sure why some are ignoring such a clear relationship, indeed, in meteorological terms I can think of no other 'pattern match' that produces such consistent outcomes.

Yes every year is unique but science is all about looking at probabilities and trends and this one is unusually clear.

Realistically some cold weather may occur in February as the effect seems to wane by then.

The fact that this December is so wacky mild is unlikely to result in a different outcome IMO but hey let's hope in years to come people quote Andy's Christmas 'winter is over' post and how it was followed by severe cold in January, that would be fine with me.

Some good level of debate on here recently with everyone getting their say without ridicule from others, this is nice to see as TWO is the only thing keeping me sane during this grim mid winter, over on NW there are toys flying out of prams everywhere!

Keep it up guys!

cheers,

Andy

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 

Kev,

As pdiddy excellent post above demonstrates their is a very clear signal for very mild Decembers to be followed by a very mild January and a slightly cooler February, I am not sure why some are ignoring such a clear relationship, indeed, in meteorological terms I can think of no other 'pattern match' that produces such consistent outcomes.

Yes every year is unique but science is all about looking at probabilities and trends and this one is unusually clear.

Realistically some cold weather may occur in February as the effect seems to wane by then.

The fact that this December is so wacky mild is unlikely to result in a different outcome IMO but hey let's hope in years to come people quote Andy's Christmas 'winter is over' post and how it was followed by severe cold in January, that would be fine with me.

Some good level of debate on here recently with everyone getting their say without ridicule from others, this is nice to see as TWO is the only thing keeping me sane during this grim mid winter, over on NW there are toys flying out of prams everywhere!

Keep it up guys!

cheers,

Andy

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 

I was once asked by a high profile and well known TV forecaster to provision only 0z data for him. He was convinced it was more accurate than the rest. I pointed out that the marginal cost of making the 6z, 12z and 18z sets available too was very low and that statistically the differences are not major. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

To clarify, aren't the following runs considered most reliable in this order?:

12z

0z

18z

6z

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

To clarify, aren't the following runs considered most reliable in this order?:

12z

0z

18z

6z

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

This doesnt look good

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

The problem I have is that we are looking at the December in isolation and then extrapolating. This current pattern did not start in the December though, it started at the end of October. We effectively looking at a specific cut-out time frame within the general pattern then extrapolating.  

We should really be IMO looking at very mild November-December combination if we are going to attempt extrapolate a possible outcome for the rest of the winter.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

I have been consistently looking at the charts (particularly the GFS for some reason) for a good couple of months now, praying for a change in fortune with the distinct lack of snow in the Italian Alp area.

There has recently been a consistent trend for lowering heights over the Alps region from the end of the year with the potential for succession of low pressures to pass over from the start of Jan.

Could be a massive change in fortune for the ski industry within the Alps this year.

Does anyone have access to rainfall data for Turin? I can even remember the last time i saw a drop of rain forcasted then! Amazingly dry! Could be a real big contract from December to January conditions in that region! 

Originally Posted by: Graham Swanton 

and so it goes on...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2101.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21614.gif

Originally Posted by: squish 

Plenty of snow appearing there but as most of us know that set up won't deliver in southern and central regions.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

The current order is:

0z

12z

6z

18z

...but the differences really wouldn't keep me awake at night! 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Plenty of snow appearing there but as most of us know that set up won't deliver in southern and central regions.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Kev,

As pdiddy excellent post above demonstrates their is a very clear signal for very mild Decembers to be followed by a very mild January and a slightly cooler February, I am not sure why some are ignoring such a clear relationship, indeed, in meteorological terms I can think of no other 'pattern match' that produces such consistent outcomes.

Yes every year is unique but science is all about looking at probabilities and trends and this one is unusually clear.

Realistically some cold weather may occur in February as the effect seems to wane by then.

The fact that this December is so wacky mild is unlikely to result in a different outcome IMO but hey let's hope in years to come people quote Andy's Christmas 'winter is over' post and how it was followed by severe cold in January, that would be fine with me.

Some good level of debate on here recently with everyone getting their say without ridicule from others, this is nice to see as TWO is the only thing keeping me sane during this grim mid winter, over on NW there are toys flying out of prams everywhere!

Keep it up guys!

cheers,

Andy

Very much so Andy, I do try to follow the debate on the other side but they appear to have issued a winter forecast that is going to be wrong unless there is a massive turnaround later in January.

But for now, it's another day with the models as you were.

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 

I don't get this some runs have more data than others as they're all run from the same starting point with the same available data throughout?

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles