Nice try from GFS 18Z - looked good to T144. At least it shows that little GEM isn't completely barking.

I cannot overemphasize this, the polar vortex is, and has been, under constant attack. The damn thing has been so reslient but as long as the onslaught continues its only a matter of time before it fails.

we might get a trigger to the s/e signs of instability with slumping jet

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=1

yup shes thinking about it big time

there you go

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=276&mode=0&carte=1

Ignoring the detail of the 18z, the good news is the bombs have lessened, pressure to our East is more stubborn and there is the potential for an East/West battle as we head into the 1st week of the New Year. A step in the right direction or just a blip with normal service resumed tomorrow?

I like the general idea but as usual it is 18z but having said that it is  not alone with thoughts from gm for a while but have they been on the cheap cider 

For a novice you seem to know an awful lot .......hmmmmmmmm

Of course there was a chance if it was being hinted at in the runs.......which it was , the chance was very small but it couldn't be ruled out for sure

Yes,  he played the novice card to start but as time goes by be can't resist the trolling. 

I'd bet my Christmas turkey this is Ian Brown. 

aye, his fist forays into trolling that I noticed were in the uia forum.

Some interesting members in the mix

Naaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Thats showing an Easterly it is NEVER on the cards lol

I'm trying to learn all the time, some disappointing comments perhaps born out from frustration, I don't know. but as I say - my thoughts are no easterly.

Most of those have one hell of a beast will be intresting if this gets built on

Do we give a shirt 

Load of tosh, most of the time your posts are antagonistic

Gooner, I'm only relating what I'm seeing from these models. There is a very good tutorial on the other side about learning the dynamics of the predictors, what to look for and what it means, I'm afraid it has all been bad for us cold fans thus far ! Nonetheless there have some experts over there who have predicted a cold January, with a lot of talk about a 'SSW' , let's see what happens eh 

Morning all.

Another very zonal and often stormy set in the reliable timeframe- all very worrying regards flooding and property damage. Lets hope that some better weather is predicted in todays later output.

Stormy ecm this morning with high pressure over Scandinavia,Russia holding firm and low pressure trying to break it down. We are directly in the firing line.

Different variation of the new years day storm from the ecm to the gfs.

Here's today's 0z ECM ensemble output. The control run looks interesting, a large dollop of rain followed by (shock, horror) a colder-than-average day! I'll let you know what it shows when the full charts come out later (around lunchtime).

That is a message that you yourself would be well advised to adhere to, as would others who have been filling this thread with WIO type posts.

Yes, horrific output this morning and one feels desperately sorry for those already suffering from flood damage, there is just more of the same to come well into January.

The METO say confidence is low on a drier spell in January.

The Atlantic is relentless, showing no mercy to its victims and means most of us.

6z a very interesting run so far, with the block much stronger and better aligned.

A blip or a reversal toward a colder outlook?
Not cold for us yet but wouldn't take much.

Probably issues with lack of data 

Just as well there are Mods about to police these model output discussions - just for the avoidance of doubt, they are "moderators" and not "modernists" though...

Still all to play for as we head in to January.  Even the 1st of Jan has the possibility of snow as the jet heads on Southerly track...