6 out of 8 posts on this popular thread, Polar Low; I reckon you're onto something!

Without wishing to upset Marcus, The 6z operational is quite an outlier in FI and I notice that GEM have dropped their easterly on the operational.

It does show a way out of the current rut but the likely scenario remains zonal and probably largely mild although less so than recently.

Not a problem Dave , yes it is quite an outlier , most likely to return to the 'norm' on the 12z

As you say it does how to get of his current set up ....but unlikely, not impossible, but unlikely .

Perhaps but not totally without support Dave

P6 http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-6-1-276.png

P9 http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-9-1-264.png 

P11 http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-11-1-168.png 

P14 http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-14-1-240.png 

P16 http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-16-1-264.png 

P20 http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-20-1-156.png 

Carry on PL

Back from being festive to find the Easterly could be back on.  The 12z will be interesting to see if the trend can be continued.  So long as we get that WAA going S-N we're in with a chance.  As for the "debate", come on guys lets just enjoy the output and discussion.  Its okay for a divergence of views on here, its what makes it interesting.  Lets be tolerant and accepting of all who seek shelter on two this Christmastime, even if there is a divergence away from models at times.

Here's what the Brazilian

model is showing:

Check out the WAA:

An impressive 1050mb Baltic States High: 120 hours:

Will the cold make it on this run?

The cold is further west than at the same time on the the 6z:

Battle of the Titans:

1050 mb High vs 930 mb low.

World of Sport

You've got to admire England's ability to keep out of the cold.  Masterful.

Indeed Michael signs of a trigger to s/e as per pub run last night jet looks like its digging deeper interesting from gfs

LOL give it a few hours...

That Scandi High is looking mighty fine as of +168.

I'd pose the undercut question but I see meteociel is winning the chart race as usual and has the answer already 

Could be a bit nippy for once!

Perhaps too early to be sure but the 12z looks like it might be shifting the balance between block and Atlantic a little further westwards.

It's interesting how an occasional run throws up a significant block and associated easterly, such as the GEM run of a couple of days ago, then a few ensemble members and now the GFS 12z, apparently one of the more reliable of the four versions per day.

As always, let's see how it evolves, how much support there is in the ensemble and whether ECM is buying any of it (remembering that ECM is supposed to have a bias towards blocking, some suggest.... not that there's been much evidence of late).

192 and we have -10 uppers over Norfolk with the bubble of cold heading for Doc

This is most entertaining!

Shame UKMO is a world away from just +72 hours as it doesn't clear the shortwave east, phasing it with the Atlantic trough instead.

If ECM backs GFS over UKMO then there will be even more cheer than usual tonight, for the heck of it anyway  

Off for a brandy.