theweatheroutlook

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Gooner
26 December 2015 10:19:08

Output generally remains the same this morning with High Pressure looking as though it is going to remain a little too far East for our liking early in the New Year with just a chance of something better (as highlighted by the odd Op run or ensemble member as shown over the last three or four days). I see no mass hysteria or winter wonderland posts on this Forum (unlike the past), just some well intentioned comments on the fact that after weeks and weeks of rain for the northern half of the U.K. there is just the chance of something with a more easterly influence as we enter 2016.😉

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 


Totally agree, just over a week there wasnt even a mention of an Easterly.


How close is this to being 'ideal'


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
26 December 2015 10:30:08
The 06Z is trying its hardest to deliver.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1861.gif 

Much more sign of an undercut. No doubt it will disappear once it hits low res.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
26 December 2015 10:31:54


I;m not sure anything can be ruled out at the moment

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
26 December 2015 10:33:01


Mass of cold marching across Europe

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Maunder Minimum
26 December 2015 10:44:22
Well, I haven't made the mistake this time of saying anything to friends and family, other than that the dross is likely to continue for the foreseeable - the model output is too variable at the moment to be certain of anything. But I am keeping my fingers and toes crossed nonetheless.
New world order coming.
Rob K
26 December 2015 10:45:59
Certainly an interesting pattern on the 06Z, without ever actually getting very cold for the southern half of the country (at least out as far as T240).

But a nice change if it were to occur.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Chunky Pea
26 December 2015 10:46:59
Mobile and potentially stormy probably best sums up the EC ensemble suite between day 10 & 15. Average temps but tending more towards the milder side. Maybe this developing 'block' might throw a spanner in the works in later runs..
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Whether Idle
26 December 2015 10:47:09

Here is a chart for discussion, oh, wait a moment, there's seasoned posters more interested in sanctimonious posturing and point scoring..ho hum...


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gooner
26 December 2015 10:48:40

Certainly an interesting pattern on the 06Z, without ever actually getting very cold for the southern half of the country (at least out as far as T240).

But a nice change if it were to occur.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



If the LP is a tad later and less deep we could be laughing . At least its an interesting situation

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
26 December 2015 10:50:51


Here is a chart for discussion, oh, wait a moment, there's seasoned posters more interested in sanctimonious posturing and point scoring..ho hum...



Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Nor at all WI


But so many were saying write of  January blah blah blah.....................how can anyone do that when there is/was still several days of December left ............................baffles me

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Lumi
26 December 2015 10:51:29

www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif 


From 26th Dec 2015 00hrs


Surely something like this shows we are moving in the right direction for the chance of an Easterly influence at some point soon.


Although I am just stating what is my opinion. I like what I am seeing right now its very compelling and addictive.


Stu H


Thurlstone, West South Yorkshire Pennines at approx 230m. amsl.

Thurlstone
South Yorkshire
230m AMSL
Gooner
26 December 2015 10:53:48


Cold air into the North

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
26 December 2015 10:55:34
Certainly if I was going skiing in the Alps next month I would be a bit more optimistic than I was a few days ago. Consistent signs of a change for much of Europe even if it doesn't get this far west.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
26 December 2015 11:02:39

IIt really doesn't take much for this be a stunning chart

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


doctormog
26 December 2015 11:07:00
From a local perspective I would certainly bank that run, although in reality for up here I suspect it may be something of a cold outlier throughout much of its duration.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
26 December 2015 11:07:30

06Z shows a textbook transfer of the HP from Scandinavia to Greenland and leaves us in a pretty well blocked set-up with cold approaching from the northeast.


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_384_mslp500.png?cb=245




The models seem to mostly agree that pressure will rise sharply over scandi in the next three to four days. It seems to be all about what happens with this big low pressure interacting with the block in the next week. Pivotal times for the winter perhaps?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
26 December 2015 11:11:24

06Z shows a textbook transfer of the HP from Scandinavia to Greenland and leaves us in a pretty well blocked set-up with cold approaching from the northeast.


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_384_mslp500.png?cb=245




The models seem to mostly agree that pressure will rise sharply over scandi in the next two to three days. It seems to be all about what happens with this big low pressure interacting with the block in the next week. Pivotal times for the winter perhaps?


 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Retron
26 December 2015 11:17:10

Mobile and potentially stormy probably best sums up the EC ensemble suite between day 10 & 15. Average temps but tending more towards the milder side. Maybe this developing 'block' might throw a spanner in the works in later runs..

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Hmm, is that based on the Weatherbell means or something else?


The actual ensemble data here:


http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim&r=zuidwest


shows a generally mildish picture, to be sure, but it also shows a decent cluster of much colder conditions, accompanied by non-SW'ly winds.


There's now a noteworthy cluster of colder options in the ECM ensembles, no longer is it in an outlier situation.


And as I'm writing this the Weathercast ensembles have updated:


http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif


Similar clustering there to the SW Netherlands ensembles, but that's no surprise!


 


 

Leysdown, north Kent
Whether Idle
26 December 2015 11:20:22

Warning:


Please ignore if you're not interested in model output discussion:


Here are the 0z de Bilt ensembles. What they show to my eye is more cold clustering than last night's 12z set and that the 0z Op was one of the milder options available on day 9. 


Warning:


do NOT change your winter tyres on the strength of this post


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
squish
26 December 2015 11:20:44
Signs that the block may be exerting a bit more influence on the 06z GFS and ensembles. I suspect it will oscilate a bit over the coming few runs.

As everything is coming into the medium time frame now (+144-180), then I imagine the UKMO +144 chart will start to come into play for the first time in a long time- it has shown nothing but a big low in the central atlantic and sw'lies for weeks!

The 00z chart was perfectly poised to go either way, although on balance I think the UKMO still favours the atlantic winning

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Shropshire
26 December 2015 11:26:55

Signs that the block may be exerting a bit more influence on the 06z GFS and ensembles. I suspect it will oscilate a bit over the coming few runs.

As everything is coming into the medium time frame now (+144-180), then I imagine the UKMO +144 chart will start to come into play for the first time in a long time- it has shown nothing but a big low in the central atlantic and sw'lies for weeks!

The 00z chart was perfectly poised to go either way, although on balance I think the UKMO still favours the atlantic winning

Originally Posted by: squish 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif


Yes, I don't place too much faith in the UKMO T144 anyway and we know the 06z is often a more 'blocked' run. I think we can comfortably say any dividing line will be well to the East of the UK, then if the Atlantic wins it can be a long time before there is another shot at it.


 


The METO remain consistent with their view for January.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
squish
26 December 2015 11:30:16
I hadn't even noticed this mornings GEM!! Didn't look that promising at +144

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2402.gif 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Whether Idle
26 December 2015 11:31:54


The METO remain consistent with their view for January


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


 


 


Yes Shropshire, that is the key.  If the Met O change their tune it will be worth taking serious note.  In the meantime, we have the appalling flooding situation to get to grips with.


The obvious winner in the battle of the Atlantic will not be the block, as is exemplified by every set of ensembles posted of late, even if the operationals have sometimes strayed into cold outlier territory.


It all makes for fascinating model watching, IMHO.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Shropshire
26 December 2015 11:32:01

Ian Ferguson has said that the chances of an E/SE set-up is around 10%, and the Atlantic is a big favourite up to 15 days ahead.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
squish
26 December 2015 11:32:09
06z 'mean' at + 204hrs

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-21-1-204.png?6 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl

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