Wasn't it GEM that first came up with the idea of an Easterly???

Below are a few comments from several days back

The models remain very poor, I doubt if deep down anyone really expects a change from this mild regime for the rest of the winter. 

From Shropshire ....Dec 17th

You could be on to something Mr Moomin, although it wouldn't surprise me to see the change just after Christmas. Too early to say but there does seem to be more evidence of a pattern change than has been the case in the last few days. It will be interesting to see what the charts show for the post Christmas period in a couple of days.

From Doc  18th Dec .............Very sensible

If we want what the ECM shows to happen then it just shows how bad the position is.

What happened to the warming event that people were talking about for esrly January, doesn't seem to be on according to the other side, I've noticed Steve Murr and the Jam Tamara woman don't seem to be on there anymore.

 From the vanishing Shropshire Dec 18th

Its a good chart but we've been here before with Ecm day 10 charts. We're still 2 or 3 weeks away from any serious cold at least all the ensembles at the moment are shocking.

 From Ally Pally Dec  18th .......whoops

Steve Ive been watching the WAA for that S-N orientation.  It simply hasn't even been modelled right let alone happened.  Its always as you say been SW-NE which simply locks us into THE MILDNESS.

To get S-N oriented WAA at this you need a wall of high pressure all the way up into the Arctic to our east.  Without this very rare occurrence the WAA from the deep TM air masses is simply wasted.

It is definitely a case of making the most of what you've got and until something changes dramatically upstream, the only way out to cold is the S-N WAA scenario with a hoped for compensatory plunge south of frigid air.

Its all such a long way off. 1% hope.

From Weather Idle  Dec 18th .........1% eh ?

any cold in FI is just that, fantasy, just noise.

white noise.

From Stone Cold ........no surprise Dec 19th

Yes, a Paul Simon song springs to mind but we shall see. The problem is the whole process could take several weeks.

From Brian Gaze  Dec 19th.......just shows you can't go on past experiences

I feel the models, especially the ECM, are suggesting a post Christmad pattern change

From Doc again......Dec19th

And Ally Pally's reply to the above

The ensembles just don't suggest this at the moment though neither ecm or GFS. Looks mild beyond new year to me .

We will have to wait until February at the earliest

From Maunder Dec 19th

With these forecasted blocks to the East, 9 times out of ten in my experience it gets pushed away and flattened by the jet back into a Euro high, giving us another sustained spell of Atlantic westerlies. To me it looks like this is what's going to happen this time, especially as the jet looks strong .

From Fothergill  Dec 19th

Never say never, but I think the more "seasoned " campaigners can see where this one is likely to be headed

 From Weather Idle  Dec 19th ..................of course WI means though who thought cold was around the corner ......lol....................not

As for early Jan it looks quite unsettled based on the GEFS. Despite what some people say on the forums, I seriously doubt whether MOGREPS and the European ensembles show a significantly different picture to GEFS except on very rare occasions

From Brian Gaze 20th Dec

I'm not saying a raging Easterly is likely but even some of 'The big boys' were thinking cold is weeks and weeks away , yet 7 days or so later we have an Easterly showing up on several models.  It  doesn't really matter what experience you have you can never outbox the weather .

Interesting times.............................hopefully

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Hmm I just can't shift the feelinh this place is going to be suicidal hot pot in the coming days... #imstillnotbuyintoit 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Despite all the eye candy FI charts the MetO are having none of it with no change to their mild outlook until at least mid January.


Andy

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 

Even if doesn't come off, this is the kind of excitement that we enjoy - great to have it emerging around Christmas. 

Anyone know when the ensembles come out for ECM? And the GFSP? Should be interesting. 

Happy xmas all, enjoy the family fallouts from articulate

fingers crossed for a new year change of fortunes in the weather! 

Originally Posted by: ITSY 

I think the main thing to point out is that the METO don't even see the possibility of a battle in their medium term outlook, perhaps the models are overreacting to the MJO uncertainty, whereas of course we know that the ENSO and immense PV can overwhelm this factor.

The ECM 32 dayer remains very progressive through to the end of January.

Merry Xmas everyone 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

I think the main thing to point out is that the METO don't even see the possibility of a battle in their medium term outlook, perhaps the models are overreacting to the MJO uncertainty, whereas of course we know that the ENSO and immense PV can overwhelm this factor.

The ECM 32 dayer remains very progressive through to the end of January.

Merry Xmas everyone 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Not surprisingly the ECM op run is an outlier at the end of the run. Mind you it does have the control run for company.

http://www.weerstationgrou.nl/pluim/

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

The ensemble mean chart for Day 10 suggests that the MetO long-range forecasts won't be changing yet.

Very good support for a block but it's 1,000 miles too far east and we're left under the eastern end of the Atlantic conveyor belt. I would guess that unless the ensemble suite pulls everything west the professionals won't make any change to the current outlook.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

The ensemble mean chart for Day 10 suggests that the MetO long-range forecasts won't be changing yet.

Very good support for a block but it's 1,000 miles too far east and we're left under the eastern end of the Atlantic conveyor belt. I would guess that unless the ensemble suite pulls everything west the professionals won't make any change to the current outlook.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Not sure it's a widespread snow event it's very close to one though. An excellent run nonetheless .

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

ECM is very snowy. I have drawn the fronts on the 192hr onwards. 

At 192 we have the first potential area of snow, this one is not coming into particularly cold air so it is pretty uncertain. However evaporation cooling may turn the precipitation on this very slow moving front to snow. If it does this is potentially a 10cm event, since the front is still there 24 hours later (see 216 image).

At 216 we have a rapidly occluding low moving gradually north east. This is a classic warm occlusion and will dump ALOT of snow, and yes it will be completely snow for everywhere north of the triple point, and potentially snow for those east of the warm front. This occluded front is also slow-moving and its remnants can be seen on the 240hr image. This one could drop 15-20cm locally. Parts of the North midlands, Wales, NW england, SW scotland and N ireland would be in the firing line for this. 

At 240 we have yet another feature moving up from the south, this an occluded front wrapping around a secluded warm centre. Again this could drop several cm in a very narrow band for parts of the midlands. In the 240hr image we would also have lake effect snow to contend with for SE England. 

Also noteworthy the polar front (boundry between polar and sub tropical airmasses) becomes increasingly well defined. Note how it moves very far south. At 192hours its the same latitude as newfoundland and the UK, by 216hours it stretches on a long SW to NE trajectory ending in SW England and by 240 hours it stretches right across the atlantic to the mediteranian.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

While ensemble data is important for understanding the stability / likelihood of particular patterns, it shouldn't be forgotten that the operational runs are, in theory at least, more likely to be accurate than any of the individual ensemble runs.

Originally Posted by: GlenH 

That is though stunning Happy Christmas from the ECM !

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

While ensemble data is important for understanding the stability / likelihood of particular patterns, it shouldn't be forgotten that the operational runs are, in theory at least, more likely to be accurate than any of the individual ensemble runs.

Originally Posted by: GlenH 

Although still unsettled, that ECM mean chart seems to suggest to me anyway that temps might be more likely to return to closer to average values, rather than the exceptional mildness we have seen at times in recent weeks. Pressure over central & southern Europe doesn't look to be as high either, as has often been the case recently.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

But the point is uncertainties grow as the run progresses and the Op isn't likely to produce the most probable outcome.  

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White