Usual rules folks.

I'll start you off with the GFS6zP which no one has yet posted. Its good.

Yes indeed Phil , at this point on 6z a deep lp was coming at us. Might get us a chance of a frost

Looks like the Greeks are going to get a dumping 😂

UKMO 144 goes with a cold shot to Greece and a robust block.  Looks wet fore the NW sadly...

First Sunday of 2016 is a chilly one. FI thats for sure

GEM @180 - this run delivers no golden shot but instead shears the cold into the North Sea and it ends messy.

UKMO looks half-decent for the longer term prospects with a secondary cold shot coming into Eastern Europe from the NE with a low incoming over Britain. GFS12OP not the best. GEM not the best either. Not great! Still lots of uncertainty though. Whatever way it goes you get the feeling it could be vital for the rest of January in terms of establishing a fresh (or maintaining the existing) pattern...

We need a pattern change.  A change to a less mild regime.  I mean, I was at Deal this afternoon on the east Kent coast.  Sea temperature -

11.5 c.  Incredible and a good 3 c above the lta.  I think this block will end up leaving us in some kind of no mans land in a stand off between the Atlantic and a Russian based block.  Sadly this means southerly winds and wet for the west especially.  The 12 z GFS looks all wrong, things are a mess in model land and FI is definitely around 120-144 at the moment.

edit - Incidentally, a horrendous GFS FI Op which puts us back on a wet in the NW dry in the SE zonal rut well into January with further flooding a likelihood in prone areas.  #zonalnightmare.  Here's a snapshot FI chart:

 Edit 2 - and just for balance here's the GFS parallel 6z run @ 240 which gives an easterly quickie before fizzling into a mess:

I don't know about that. Looking at the anomalies parts of Scandinavia and the Baltics are running at 12-13C above average. That kind of warmth has to have some impact down the line, and it really feels as though there must be a huge flip around before too long. The models have been toying with it. 

mmm its not a done deal I would not rule out a little push from the east, confusion about that energy

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=144

Last few days of the really mild weather.

Back in the winter 97/98 there were a few "tease" charts but nowhere near as many as we're seeing right now.

Mind you, those teases that did exist were much the same as today. Here's a sample post from the discussion board of the day! MRF = AVN = GFS. (MRF was once named as Misleading Rubbishy Forecast by one disillusioned posted. Maybe we should have a similar name for GFS!)

From: David Reynolds <[email protected]>
Subject: MRF Jan14 - here comes winter
Date: 1998/01/14
Message-ID: <[email protected]>#1/1
X-Deja-AN: 316000149
Newsgroups: uk.sci.weather

The MRF run based on 00z data from January 14 looks very interesting.

(1) It's centring a low over the Bristol Channel at 12z on Sunday, 
then sliding it ESE. For the second run in a row, the MRF isn't 
developing the low as much as UKMO. Inference is heavy snow from 
inland Wales - Midlands - E Anglia & SE. (UKMO turn this into a 
deeper low, with the rain/snow boundary over N'rn England and S'rn Scotland).

(2) Next low moves to be located off W Ireland on Monday, with a 
triple point over N England. If we do get a dumping of snow on 
Sunday, the milder air might not make it that far northwards.

(3) That low then tracks SE'ward into W France and then the W'rn 
Med., with more snow on its northern (S'rn Britain!) flank. High 
pressure starts developing over S'rn Norway and the persistent deep 
(mean) low over northern Scandi becomes much more shallow. The high 
them intensifies (around 1030 hPa at T+228), keeping it's position 
with a brisk E'ly now well establised over the UK (snow 
showers/flurries for E'rn England).

Asides from this panning out, I also hope that the stagnation of the 
air over N'rn Scandi will provide a large cold pool for the high to 
latch on to (note the strong NW'ly flow from the Arctic that N'rn 
Scandi is expected to have for the next few days before the low 
starts filling there).

All things considered, all the ingredients are there for a 
significant block developing over Scandi. Let's wait and see if 
winter is finally making an appearance ....

If only! Still, at least charts like this are still being churned out. It really isn't safe to discount anything at the moment!

The big difference between that winter and this one thus far is 1997/98 was never anywhere near as wet, in my area at least. There were some unsettled spells that saw a fair bit of rain here, but nothing compared to recently and no unsettled spell that winter was anywhere near as lasting as the present one has been.

At 240 h make it 40% easterly flow but still 60% zonal westerly so not persuaded yet that the cold is going to make it west over UK.Need to see an easterly over the UK on a 120h fax before getting really interested.

What I'm seeing is repeated colder signals heading into the second week of January. Might not be much consistency yet in establishing where/when we get the colder weather but these trends aren't going away. 

Not in the reliable timeframe yet, but steps in the right direction if we want a pattern change (and we do!) 

Indeed. Let's all pray for one, for the sake of all the people that have been affected by flooding, both at the moment and over the past few weeks if no-one else's. They must be at their wit's end with the current weather.

The 12z GEFS have actually made a remarkable flip down here at least - although the 850s may not seem that low, a good deal of them (edit: in fact the majority of them) are now showing a continental influence for a time. As a result, the mean (which isn't representative of much tonight) falls below average for a couple of days.

Okay, in a normal winter that wouldn't be much to write home about, but compared to the recent mid-teen temperatures here it'll feel absolutely perishning if the colder cluster comes off.

Remarkable deep penetration of a finger of +ve upper temperatures towards the pole at t96 on ECM: