Very much so Mike, though as the block retreats a faster flow through of depressions will happen.

Is anyone really surprised though? How many times have we been here before

So far this winter is panning out exactly as forecast. Any chance of cold weather still a few weeks away at best

Indeed Steve (Gusty). Things could be getting worse before hopefully improving.... rather like Man Utd, lol! I am rooting for Chelsea for obvious reasons!

I don't think too many of us are surprised. As a forum TWO has handled things very well, a good healthy dose of optimism..yes but with a realism to the relatively low probabilities involved. There is still a chance if the ECM ensembles are to be believed ! 

As a forum we have grown up over the years. A great place to discuss the models. 

That is simply untrue sorry. There is a chance (possibly small?) in as soon as a week. So to say any chance of cold weather being a few weeks away at best is factually incorrect. A glance at the ECM 00z run will show you that. 

Always a bad idea to assume

Very much so. Whilst a 'beast from the east' is a clear-cut cold scenario, it's not the only way to get colder & hopefully snowier conditions. Even the current GFS shows high potential for snow in many areas, albeit in the northern half/two-thirds of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1947/Rrea00119470102.gif

Not a million miles apart

Spot on, great post 👍🏻

Back from Maidstone now - here are the ECM 120 thumbnails. There are 6 separate clusters at 120, which shows the high levels of uncertainty at the moment!

(Click for fullsize)

the  more i look at the models  its more grim to the flooded ares i cant see any let up to 2nd week of jan  

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

0z ECM extended ensembles for London. There's still good agreement on a change to slightly colder-than-average conditions and that'll feel bitter.

For good measure, here's the 0z output for Reading. Note the median is generally colder than average from the 1st (mean max is 7.7C at Reading Uni in Jan).

Yes, the only thing that's certain is that the outlook is uncertain! There's so much hinging on any trough disruption in a few days that the rest becomes a bit academic. The best that can be said down here really is that it looks likely temperatures will fall to average or a little below, with a continuing low risk (10-20%) of something substantially colder.

Yes, and this time it could well be more evenly spread. Here in the far SE we've escaped most of it, whereas further north and west it's utterly grim the amount of rain that's fallen.