theweatheroutlook

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Phil G
28 December 2015 16:28:12

GFS still rolling out, but at +174 jet appears to be diverting more N- S, compared to W- E on the 6z.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17414.gif

Gooner
28 December 2015 16:33:54

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions


Close up from the UKMO , a right battle

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


nsrobins
28 December 2015 16:34:20
The positive with the ukmo 144 chart is the low forming in S Europe. Absolutely essential if the high is to maintain itself and the cold pool is to be persuaded our way.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gooner
28 December 2015 16:36:34

The positive with the ukmo 144 chart is the low forming in S Europe. Absolutely essential if the high is to maintain itself and the cold pool is to be persuaded our way.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Yep


With a bit of luck it will prop it up and fire it Westwards

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


roger63
28 December 2015 16:38:33


Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions


Close up from the UKMO , a right battle


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


And the same question as yesterday will the LP slide SE or turn NW?

Ally Pally Snowman
28 December 2015 16:46:41


 


And the same question as yesterday will the LP slide SE or turn NW?


Originally Posted by: roger63 


If you compare the 120h chart you can definitely see it's going SE. It's a stunner of a chart!


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Phil G
28 December 2015 16:52:54
The jet continues to run more south into FI, hence the 12z is a colder run. Await further runs with interest.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn28814.gif 
Ally Pally Snowman
28 December 2015 16:53:36

GEM gets very very close to something special. Decent out so far.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0&carte=0


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
28 December 2015 16:54:29


Its such an interesting set up currently , not your traditional zonal as has been predicted.

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Phil G
28 December 2015 16:54:53
Jet blasts through towards the end of the run, but changes are a happening.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3241.gif 

Ally Pally Snowman
28 December 2015 17:01:47

Jet blasts through towards the end of the run, but changes are a happening.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3241.gif

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


 


Its looking more and more blocked by every run great stuff.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
28 December 2015 17:05:00


 


 


Its looking more and more blocked by every run great stuff.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 



Doesn't it just

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Maunder Minimum
28 December 2015 17:05:47

Jet blasts through towards the end of the run, but changes are a happening.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3241.gif

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


That is to misinterprete the chart I think. It is a classic standoff and the block holds.


 

New world order coming.
David M Porter
28 December 2015 17:06:09

A lot of flips and flops as always, but there does seem to have been something of a shift in the model output since Xmas Eve. Up until then, I for one was expecting a continuation of atlantic domination for at least the first week or two of January, as per the thoughts of some others. Now though, the situation beyond next weekend seems to be rather less clear-cut.


Put it this way, this is by far the most interesting model output we've seen at any time in the past two months.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Solar Cycles
28 December 2015 17:07:10

Great run from the UKMO for cold and talk on the grapevine of an elusive Canadian  warming, something we haven't seen for a couple of decades.

Bertwhistle
28 December 2015 17:15:20

Fantastic- you can tell when the embers are rekindled.


Posts on MOD thread 1507 to 1607 today: 1


1607 to 1707 today: 18

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Whether Idle
28 December 2015 17:17:55

Satisfying output so far this evening.  I was expecting to have to throw in the towel on the potential cold snap that might commence around Jan 4th around now, instead there is a renewed flicker of hope that we might actually get some cold weather in the heart of the winter.  Game still on.  I like the UKMO 144 and the GEM and the GFS eventually gets there.  Now watch the ECM op flip mild

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Sinky1970
28 December 2015 17:24:03
I personally are going to sit on the fence at this so as not to get too disappointed when/if it doesn't materialise, as it is over 7 days away.
Bertwhistle
28 December 2015 17:26:01

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_384_mslp850.png?cb=863


That 1045 cell needs to squeeze north now to allow the -10s in.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Whether Idle
28 December 2015 17:26:10

The extension of the 1020 mb isobar west of the meridian around Spitzbergen and west of Norway is a huge bonus - the block muscling out the Atlantic in that vicinity is key, as is the beginnings of a fall in pressure in the vicinity of Berne.


A great chart, if somewhat open to change as it is in FI:


Met O 144:


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
roger63
28 December 2015 17:28:21


 


If you compare the 120h chart you can definitely see it's going SE. It's a stunner of a chart!


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


The change from 120h could also be interpreted as LP 960mb west of Iceland at 120h moves west and fills.LP 980mb north of Azores at 120h deepens and moves NE.


Its also worth looking at the GFS evolution from 144h onwards which has LP drifting north.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=156&mode=0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0


 

nsrobins
28 December 2015 17:44:56
I do concede the ukmo has taken me by surprise this evening. As others have said the +144 is very promising indeed.
As hope has faded with the potential disruption, falling pressure over the Balkans has stepped in to keep the fun alive.
Great entertainment and totally free of charge 😀😎
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Whether Idle
28 December 2015 17:48:53

I do concede the ukmo has taken me by surprise this evening. As others have said the +144 is very promising indeed.
As hope has faded with the potential disruption, falling pressure over the Balkans has stepped in to keep the fun alive.
Great entertainment and totally free of charge 😀😎

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Oh Matron!


Here it is again , this time in glorious wetterzentale technicolour. 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Rob K
28 December 2015 18:02:03
Meanwhile in the nearer future GFS has a low pressure of around 923mb crossing Iceland.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_42_mslp500.png?cb=334 

Even the fax chart has it down to 930mb.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Whether Idle
28 December 2015 18:10:48

Meanwhile in the nearer future GFS has a low pressure of around 923mb crossing Iceland.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_42_mslp500.png?cb=334

Even the fax chart has it down to 930mb.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Aye, and look what it is doing further afield:


This is a rock solid cert ECM 850s chart at t48.  Check out the WAA into the high Arctic, stunning:


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

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